2025 Novice Chasers

[Carnage at Taunton]

Agreed I'd be writing them first 2 off for Arkle prospects

Inthepocket
Impaire et Passe
Ballyburn
Leau du Sud
Down Memory Lane

Top 5 prospects currently for me, in that order. Would maybe mark up DML more if he werent given such an easy lead. ITP and LDS look the 2 sharpest jumpers from what we've seen currently.

Yep, purely on Jumping those two are easily ahead from what we have seen.
To me they and CPotter are the only ones thus far that have looked natural 2 milers over fences.
Firefox jumped well I thought, but a little unsure with him, need to see him back over 2m.
Still time for the others to improve their jumping, and
I imagine there’s plenty of work being done in various yards.

[ComplyOrDie]

There's been extensive posts on here over the years about trainers and their routes/habits during the season, and Willie is one of those that tends to stick to them, so with regards to Impaire Et Passe, I'm not sure why the Arkle is being spoken of.

The race Impaire Et Passe won was previously won by Monkfish, as well as placed efforts for I Am Maximus & Acapella Bourgeois, all of which ended up in the BANC.

He also used it for Sir Des Champs, who won, and he ended up in the then, Jewson's Novices Chase (last seasons Turners).

I realise the limited number of races probably means he has to start them somewhere but even so, it's a fair drop back down to the Arkle trip after romping home in what looked an OK field over nearly 2m6f.

The only reason Gaelic Warrior stepped back down is because he got beat over 2m5f @ Leopardstown and was mad keen. Impaire Et passe settles lovely, jumps well and just needs to prove he can get 3m. I'm hoping he ends up in the Nevills over Christmas next vs Better Days Ahead. Both Gordon & Willie use that race for their BANC horses.

A couple of side notes for IEP.

He's by Diamond Boy. The same sire as former BANC winner, L'Homme Presse. You'll have to stick with me here, and probably less relevant in relation to where he ends up, but IEP's grand sires dam is Floripedes, who produced the brilliant Montjeu. Bit of useless information none of you ever needed!

Gavin Lynch, after seeing him debut: "Impaire Et Passe won't be winning an Arkle". He's a fair enough judge, and I'd be in agreeance.

A bit like most of Willies first time up, he looked a bit of a lump on Saturday. Plenty to come off of him.

[Craigy14]

Have to say I agree with DenmanSacre when mentioned couple days back about Ballyburn and even Impaire Et Passé being well clear on ratings in relation to the Arkle, in that, even slightly underperforming they would still be the most likely winners. I’m of the opinion at the minute that I think IEP might go 3m rather than down to 2m.l but we’ll see with that.

In the jumping department, Ballyburn was ok, the whole racing IQ data seems to think he isn’t a 2m, which may be right. Are we not being silly if we think that that data means he can’t win an Arkle? Obviously it was only a chase debut so maybe he’ll speed up with experience etc. Only 2 seasons ago we had El Fabiolo win an Arkle because his engine was just so much better than the others. Plenty in the business with more knowledge etc than any of us on here mentioned how he had his own way of getting from A to B. I mean he bulldozed through fences at times. If Ballyburn doesn’t fall he wins the Arkle (if he remains at 2m) imo.

[Carnage at Taunton]

I would not be worried about Ballyburn falling he looked careful with his jumping, although of course any horse can fall and 2 milers especially imo.
I would be concerned with him losing ground at the fences against some from what I’ve seen though.
And when I look at his odds, I do think he’s too short and there’s value elsewhere.
But these are novices who can improve throughout the season and jumping is one thing they can improve.
I recognise his hurdles form and ratings, and he could jump as he is now and still win, but I do see enough from his potential opponents and indeed him to think the Arkle is an open race right now.
Plus of course it seems he may not even turn up in the race.

[Wayward Lad]

There's been extensive posts on here over the years about trainers and their routes/habits during the season, and Willie is one of those that tends to stick to them, so with regards to Impaire Et Passe, I'm not sure why the Arkle is being spoken of.

The race Impaire Et Passe won was previously won by Monkfish, as well as placed efforts for I Am Maximus & Acapella Bourgeois, all of which ended up in the BANC.

He also used it for Sir Des Champs, who won, and he ended up in the then, Jewson's Novices Chase (last seasons Turners).

I realise the limited number of races probably means he has to start them somewhere but even so, it's a fair drop back down to the Arkle trip after romping home in what looked an OK field over nearly 2m6f.

The only reason Gaelic Warrior stepped back down is because he got beat over 2m5f @ Leopardstown and was mad keen. Impaire Et passe settles lovely, jumps well and just needs to prove he can get 3m. I'm hoping he ends up in the Nevills over Christmas next vs Better Days Ahead. Both Gordon & Willie use that race for their BANC horses.

A couple of side notes for IEP.

He's by Diamond Boy. The same sire as former BANC winner, L'Homme Presse. You'll have to stick with me here, and probably less relevant in relation to where he ends up, but IEP's grand sires dam is Floripedes, who produced the brilliant Montjeu. Bit of useless information none of you ever needed!

Gavin Lynch, after seeing him debut: "Impaire Et Passe won't be winning an Arkle". He's a fair enough judge, and I'd be in agreeance.

A bit like most of Willies first time up, he looked a bit of a lump on Saturday. Plenty to come off of him.

Cracking horse which would have the best chance IMO of putting it up to Teahupoo if the connections decided to have a go at the Stayers

However chasing it is and if he races to a similar level of form over fences to hurdles, then the rest of the bunch, barring Ballyburn have it all to do in the Browns

Even looking at Dancing City, BDA etc which must have serious chances in the Browns, then they will still need to improve over stone from their hurdle rating (entirely possible)

IEP is 16/1 across the board for the Browns after showing he can jump and is in good fettle, which normally sees bookmakers give horses major haircuts !…..didn’t happen here so maybe the price has a part reflecting that he may wait for Aintree?

He has a race under his belt, only has another 2f to run at Cheltenham in the Browns (didn’t look like stopping over 2m 6f at the weekend) surely will improve for the run (jumping and fitness) so what’s not to like ?

Got to be in book and on the shortlist methinks

[ComplyOrDie]

The Jukebox Man RPR 148 (couldn't remember if someone had already put this up)
Impaire Et Passe RPR 147

[Wayward Lad]

The Jukebox Man RPR 148 (couldn't remember if someone had already put this up)
Impaire Et Passe RPR 147

Mmmm…….i know which one I would want to be on in a match !

[Lobos]

Mmmm…….i know which one I would want to be on in a match !

Be a great race to see with those two going at it.

[Exar Essay]

The Jukebox Man RPR 148 (couldn't remember if someone had already put this up)
Impaire Et Passe RPR 147

Perfectly opposed running styles too. Jukebox Man from the front. IEP anything but from the front. Could be a great match up.

[YoungHustler]

Down Memory Lane entered in the Henry VIII. Would love to see him line up against L'Eau Du Sud.

[Craigy14]

I would not be worried about Ballyburn falling he looked careful with his jumping, although of course any horse can fall and 2 milers especially imo.
I would be concerned with him losing ground at the fences against some from what I’ve seen though.
And when I look at his odds, I do think he’s too short and there’s value elsewhere.
But these are novices who can improve throughout the season and jumping is one thing they can improve.
I recognise his hurdles form and ratings, and he could jump as he is now and still win, but I do see enough from his potential opponents and indeed him to think the Arkle is an open race right now.
Plus of course it seems he may not even turn up in the race.

I wouldn’t be worried about losing ground at fences either CAT, hence using El Fab to relate to. Obviously I don’t know for sure but I’d say given the way he has/does jump fences the Racing IQ data wouldn’t be too kind on him but he had the best engine to back it up. Ballyburn has the best engine by far when comparing the novice hurdlers from last year so jumping ok will be more than enough in an Arkle imo.

As you say, any horse can fall or make a race ending mistake.

[Craigy14]

The Jukebox Man RPR 148 (couldn't remember if someone had already put this up)
Impaire Et Passe RPR 147

Impaire only 1lbs short of Monkfish debut RPR in the same race. Don’t see why Impaire won’t follow the same path, 3m Neville's at Xmas, 2m5f DRF imo.

[ComplyOrDie]

Impaire only 1lbs short of Monkfish debut RPR in the same race. Don’t see why Impaire won’t follow the same path, 3m Neville's at Xmas, 2m5f DRF imo.

This is how I see it playing out too. Unless Dancing City gets an entry soon, he won't be contesting the Nevilles first time up, surely? What other 3m chasers does Mullins have that have already been out?

[Carnage at Taunton]

I wouldn’t be worried about losing ground at fences either CAT, hence using El Fab to relate to. Obviously I don’t know for sure but I’d say given the way he has/does jump fences the Racing IQ data wouldn’t be too kind on him but he had the best engine to back it up. Ballyburn has the best engine by far when comparing the novice hurdlers from last year so jumping ok will be more than enough in an Arkle imo.

As you say, any horse can fall or make a race ending mistake.

Yep, that’s all fair.
Race is quiet fascinating to debate I think
As a top nov chase should be imo

[Quevega]

Impaire only 1lbs short of Monkfish debut RPR in the same race. Don’t see why Impaire won’t follow the same path, 3m Neville's at Xmas, 2m5f DRF imo.

I think Willie will at least consider this although I've a feeling they've boxed him off as mid trip in their minds.
The arkle backers picked up on the speed of jumping stats, however the Paul Townend comments relating to him going to sleep and coming alive when he asked completely suit what you'd need to stay 3 miles. Willie will definitely pick up on this also.