2025 Novice Chasers

[Lobos]

I've got him covered for 'any race' so not too much of an issue for myself. I don't care where he ends up, but that's the route I think he'll go down.

I also think the Arkle market looks a lot hotter than what the BANC does as well.

Yep, got him covered as well. The trouble is, if he does look a superstar, wherever he turns up the other horses I fancy in those races will move elsewhere or stay at home .

[ComplyOrDie]

Yep, got him covered as well. The trouble is, if he does look a superstar, wherever he turns up the other horses I fancy in those races will move elsewhere or stay at home .

But you'll likely have the winner anyway, so no bother, surely?

[Lobos]

But you'll likely have the winner anyway, so no bother, surely?

True

[Craigy14]

The debate will go on and on but provided they all jump well enough it could also come down to who PT wants to ride as his second choice. If Ballyburn still shows the speed he showed over hurdles and as we know he’s bred to stay he could go either way imo in terms of which race.

I think we can all agree it would be between:

Impaire Et Passé Arkle.

or

Dancing City BANC.

What has the best win chance outside Ballyburn could decide what way he goes.

A lot of water under the bridge as they all need to prove they can jump and get there fit and well.

[Carnage at Taunton]

The way the Arkle is going they may well want more than one fair winning chance, looking like a good renewal at the moment

[Craigy14]

The way the Arkle is going they may well want more than one fair winning chance, looking like a good renewal at the moment

Agree and on paper WPM has more than enough to throw 3/4 at both Grade 1’s imo.

[Kautostar]

Visit The Racing Forum now and again without posting. Some guy in there has posted the following.....

"I heard IEP had a slight setback and wouldn’t be out until Christmas or New Year. So I wouldn’t be sure about him going chasing."

Any truth or another joker??

Been drifting all afternoon on the exchange, nothing massive but a constant increase in small increments

[Odin]

The debate will go on and on but provided they all jump well enough it could also come down to who PT wants to ride as his second choice. If Ballyburn still shows the speed he showed over hurdles and as we know he’s bred to stay he could go either way imo in terms of which race.

I think we can all agree it would be between:

Impaire Et Passé Arkle.

or

Dancing City BANC.

What has the best win chance outside Ballyburn could decide what way he goes.

A lot of water under the bridge as they all need to prove they can jump and get there fit and well.

Possibly depends how keen ballyburn is as well. He seemed to have settled down last year so probably not a factor but worth keeping in mind.

Love this way of thinking though - this is how we get the related double edge when one trainer is dominating

[Kevloaf]

Of Willie's 'Gallaghers' shortest priced horses, next festival they ended up....

2014 - 1st - Faugheen - went to the 2015 Champion Hurdle (won)
2015 - 3rd - Nichols Canyon - went to the 2016 CH (3rd)
2016- 1st - Yorkhill - went to the 2017' JLT' (won)
2017 - PU - Bacardys - went 2018 Stayers Hurdle (Fell)
2018 - 3rd - Next Destination - missed 2019 festival and moved to Paul Nicholls
2019 - 8th - Easy Game - Fell in the 'BANC'
2020 - 3rd - The Big Getaway - didn't run
2021 - 2nd - Gailard Du Mesnil - 3rd in the 'BANC'
2022 - 1st - Sir Gerhard - 9th in the 'BANC'
2023 - 1st - Impaire Et Passe - skipped Cheltenham for Aintree
2024 - 1st - Ballyburn ------------->


So what does this tell us


Nothing, was fun putting together though



I've not really put much thought in to him ending up anywhere but the Arkle and see no reason to at the moment...



Then again, how good is his form? The Gallaghers win was a walkover.... Slade Steel been beaten.... and it leaves Firefox to wallop him in the Arkle and confirm that Fairyhouse maiden hurdle form

[Odin]

Of Willie's 'Gallaghers' shortest priced horses, next festival they ended up....

2014 - 1st - Faugheen - went to the 2015 Champion Hurdle (won)
2015 - 3rd - Nichols Canyon - went to the 2016 CH (3rd)
2016- 1st - Yorkhill - went to the 2017' JLT' (won)
2017 - PU - Bacardys - went 2018 Stayers Hurdle (Fell)
2018 - 3rd - Next Destination - missed 2019 festival and moved to Paul Nicholls
2019 - 8th - Easy Game - Fell in the 'BANC'
2020 - 3rd - The Big Getaway - didn't run
2021 - 2nd - Gailard Du Mesnil - 3rd in the 'BANC'
2022 - 1st - Sir Gerhard - 9th in the 'BANC'
2023 - 1st - Impaire Et Passe - skipped Cheltenham for Aintree
2024 - 1st - Ballyburn ------------->

I've not really put much thought in to him ending up anywhere but the Arkle and see no reason to at the moment...

None of the above went to the Arkle. Only two stayed over 2m, four went 3m (arguably 5 as Next Destination was a stayer when he returned)

Yorkhill, Big Getaway and Impaire Et Passe the others.

I'd argue there's reason to think the BANC is very plausible - which isn't what I was hoping for based on my books...

[Exar Essay]

Of Willie's 'Gallaghers' shortest priced horses, next festival they ended up....

2014 - 1st - Faugheen - went to the 2015 Champion Hurdle (won)
2015 - 3rd - Nichols Canyon - went to the 2016 CH (3rd)
2016- 1st - Yorkhill - went to the 2017' JLT' (won)
2017 - PU - Bacardys - went 2018 Stayers Hurdle (Fell)
2018 - 3rd - Next Destination - missed 2019 festival and moved to Paul Nicholls
2019 - 8th - Easy Game - Fell in the 'BANC'
2020 - 3rd - The Big Getaway - didn't run
2021 - 2nd - Gailard Du Mesnil - 3rd in the 'BANC'
2022 - 1st - Sir Gerhard - 9th in the 'BANC'
2023 - 1st - Impaire Et Passe - skipped Cheltenham for Aintree
2024 - 1st - Ballyburn ------------->


So what does this tell us


Nothing, was fun putting together though



I've not really put much thought in to him ending up anywhere but the Arkle and see no reason to at the moment...



Then again, how good is his form? The Gallaghers win was a walkover.... Slade Steel been beaten.... and it leaves Firefox to wallop him in the Arkle and confirm that Fairyhouse maiden hurdle form

Completely agree with the form, Kev. Was having this exact conversation with someone last week. Everything in the Ballymore (including him) were around a stone below their Ballymore RPR at Punchestown/Aintree. I know end of season makes for funny results, but there’s a chance he’s overrated slightly.

That being said, I don’t believe it myself.

The other thing I’ve been looking at is novice hurdle RPR’s of Arkle winners. 7/10 are 156 or higher. 8 are 152+. 9 are 149+. Only Ballyburn, Sir Gino and IEP would meet the 8/10 stat.

It does suggest the better hurdlers tend to win the Arkle, which isn’t always the case with say the BANC.

[Kevloaf]

None of the above went to the Arkle. Only two stayed over 2m, four went 3m (arguably 5 as Next Destination was a stayer when he returned)

Yorkhill, Big Getaway and Impaire Et Passe the others.

I'd argue there's reason to think the BANC is very plausible - which isn't what I was hoping for based on my books...

No I wasn't being conclusive that I think he's going to the Arkle, just stating that I haven't really thought about it as it's a waste of brain power .... been doing this too many seasons to worry all summer

Took 10/1 for the Arkle, now I know he's chasing I can watch his debut and if he wins well and they say he goes up in trip next, worry about it then.... until then, I'll stick with my made up narrative that all those horses in the list above, the top notchers (with hindsight) look to be the 2 mile ones (Faugheen carrying it!) . ..... and I think Yorkhill would have been more likely Arkle if the JLT was a handicap....




Hardly a banker though, without seeing him jump..... the best of them over hurdles is true, but too closely tied to Slade Steel and Firefox to go mental ... and chasing is a leveller ...... wouldn't be taking 5/2 for the Arkle now, or 6/1 BANC .....


Exar Essay yeah interesting .... I'm just happy to be wrong ... Ballyburn is a hype horse for the time being, he's the same as Samcro was






More generally, I think I've only been in to racing since they introduced the 'JLT' .... so this is new for me to adapt to, too ... our more established members will be in their element

[Odin]

No I wasn't being conclusive that I think he's going to the Arkle, just stating that I haven't really thought about it as it's a waste of brain power .... been doing this too many seasons to worry all summer

Ah I mis-interpreted your post then. As you were soldier

I actually did the same thing with him but for the Turners and just avoided the race. Now got him covered for Arkle but think it's his least likely destination. I've got a pending roll up for RSA with Istabraq Steelers handicap tip this weekend but will be watching his jumping like a hawk on Saturday. It's a shame he's not up against a 145ish horse in truth as it's not ridiculous to think one of those could turn him over on Saturday if rumours about his schooling are true...

[Lobos]

Anyone able to copy/paste owner comments in RP re Ballyburn going chasing??

[Exar Essay]

Ah I mis-interpreted your post then. As you were soldier

I actually did the same thing with him but for the Turners and just avoided the race. Now got him covered for Arkle but think it's his least likely destination. I've got a pending roll up for RSA with Istabraq Steelers handicap tip this weekend but will be watching his jumping like a hawk on Saturday. It's a shame he's not up against a 145ish horse in truth as it's not ridiculous to think one of those could turn him over on Saturday if rumours about his schooling are true...

I thought there could be a couple Odin. Gold Dancer and Ocastle Des Mottes were both bought to be chasers. Though being stable mates, you'd wonder what their instructions are. And I think An Epic Song will make a good chaser too. He'd have to underperform to lose the race, but I'm not sure he could make too many blunders.