2025 Novice Chasers

[Odin]

Like you say, GE knows a BANC horse when he sees it.

9 runners in the BANC throughout his whole training career - no winners, only 3 placed (Gerri Colombe, Delta Work and Jessie's Dream).

Compare that record to the Kim Muir (2 wins, 9 placed from 21) or the National Hunt Chase (4 wins, 6 placed from 15 runners) and it would suggest he doesn't know what a BANC horse is - or that he's historically been better at aiming them elsewhere.

Agree that he knows a staying chaser 100% but given his better record at below the top level, think the nuance in the statement is important for all that I accept it may be due to training methods/choices historically rather than his horses not being good enough

[Carnage at Taunton]

9 runners in the BANC throughout his whole training career - no winners, only 3 placed (Gerri Colombe, Delta Work and Jessie's Dream).

Compare that record to the Kim Muir (2 wins, 9 placed from 21) or the National Hunt Chase (4 wins, 6 placed from 15 runners) and it would suggest he doesn't know what a BANC horse is - or that he's historically been better at aiming them elsewhere.

Agree that he knows a staying chaser 100% but given his better record at below the top level, think the nuance in the statement is important for all that I accept it may be due to training methods/choices historically rather than his horses not being good enough

Ok, don’t mind rephrasing……
He knows a staying chaser when he sees one

[Benjy23]

Turns out he doesn't know what a BANC horse is looking at those stats. Should probably try running him.

I'm not having that he didn't stay at the weekend. People get strangely obsessed with this kind of thing. Of course he stays 3 miles. If was 2m 5f at the weekend. So that trip isn't an issue. If anything Ballyburn has had more pace at the end of the race and Croke Park would be better suited to the 3 miles.

[Rooster Booster]

Turns out he doesn't know what a BANC horse is looking at those stats. Should probably try running him.

I'm not having that he didn't stay at the weekend. People get strangely obsessed with this kind of thing. Of course he stays 3 miles. If was 2m 5f at the weekend. So that trip isn't an issue. If anything Ballyburn has had more pace at the end of the race and Croke Park would be better suited to the 3 miles.

He said throughout his entire hurdling career that he didn’t think he was a true 3 miler and now he has said it as a chaser . Do you not think his jockeys are also confirming this. A jockey knows the difference between a horse getting outpaced and getting outstayed. I accept sometimes it is difficult for punters to tell and in my experience we often defer to our pockets to distinguish (and I have done it myself). What are the jockeys repeatedly saying do you think that has made Gordon conclude consistently now that this horse barely stays 3 miles?

[archie]

Jango Baie and Handstands awarded RPRs of 158 for the Scilly Isles. Puts them 2nd amongst the stayers, just 2lb shy of Ballyburn.

More realistically, Handstands given 154 OR and Jango Baie 153.

Ballyburn given 160 in Ireland.

[Carnage at Taunton]

Turns out he doesn't know what a BANC horse is looking at those stats. Should probably try running him.

I'm not having that he didn't stay at the weekend. People get strangely obsessed with this kind of thing. Of course he stays 3 miles. If was 2m 5f at the weekend. So that trip isn't an issue. If anything Ballyburn has had more pace at the end of the race and Croke Park would be better suited to the 3 miles.

Maybe he’s learnt stuff from losing the race ?
End of the day, he’s a trainer known for staying chasers.
Im happy with his opinion, even though it’s a bet I can’t get out of.

[Rooster Booster]

What's bonkers about this?
Mark of gold is a 142 rated hurdler, who won a graded novice chase on his chase debut. I think it's quite fair to suggest at this early stage he's as good a chaser as hurdler.
All 4 horses on Saturday were ridden out fully to the line.

So for the front 2 to have beaten him by 17 lengths and be given an rpr of 158, is bonkers?

This was for me the best race of the WHOLE weekend.
If jango baie turns up in the banc, he's a proper contender.

Previous 10 years scilly Isles winners rprs and Cheltenham result.

Nickleback 159. didn't go Cheltenham
gerri colombe 158. 2nd banc
l'homme presse 163. Won banc
Sporting john. 160. Fell banc
Itchy feet. 160. Fell 2m4f grade1 novice chase
defi du seuil 163 won 2m4f g1
terrefort 160. 2nd 2m4f g1
top notch 160 2nd 2m4f g1
Bristol de mai. 158. 2nd 2m4f g1
Gitane du berlais 153 didn't go

4 2nd place finishes and 2 winners from the previous 10 years, and 2 didn't go and 2 Fell.
So not a bad record when completing.

Don’t let facts get in the way of the proverbial elephant in the room…please don’t take this the wrong way but I feel you over compensate…bit like I used to do when we had two family dogs and the entire family had a preference for one and I doubled down on my preference for the other. On here I try my very hardest to be entirely impartial to anything and everything other than the horse itself. But fuck me does it take its toll

[Benjy23]

He said throughout his entire hurdling career that he didn’t think he was a true 3 miler and now he has said it as a chaser . Do you not think his jockeys are also confirming this. A jockey knows the difference between a horse getting outpaced and getting outstayed. I accept sometimes it is difficult for punters to tell and in my experience we often defer to our pockets to distinguish (and I have done it myself). What are the jockeys repeatedly saying do you think that has made Gordon conclude consistently now that this horse barely stays 3 miles?

It's the easiest comeback of all that it's pocket talk isn't it

He's ran in two chases over 3 miles and he's won both of them. To say he doesn't (or barely) stays 3 miles is speculation at best, I'd be leaning more towards nonsense.

I don't know what the jockeys are coming back saying, and I'm going to guess you don't either. But I doubt it'll be 'please swerve Cheltenham and don't run him in the BANC'.

The Ryanair mob don't even have anything in the betting below 25/1. Should be telling Gordon to fuck off like and prove he doesn't stay.

Are you having him down as not staying 2m 5f on Sunday then?

[Rooster Booster]

It's the easiest comeback of all that it's pocket talk isn't it

He's ran in two chases over 3 miles and he's won both of them. To say he doesn't (or barely) stays 3 miles is speculation at best, I'd be leaning more towards nonsense.

I don't know what the jockeys are coming back saying, and I'm going to guess you don't either. But I doubt it'll be 'please swerve Cheltenham and don't run him in the BANC'.

The Ryanair mob don't even have anything in the betting below 25/1. Should be telling Gordon to fuck off like and prove he doesn't stay.

Are you having him down as not staying 2m 5f on Sunday then?

No he simply got beat by a better horse. Every horse stays to an extent in its own company . Gordon believes this fella barely stays in top company. You think he’s wrong I choose to believe him and no I don’t know what the jockeys have said but based on him referencing him questioning whether he truly stays three miles regularly as a novice hurdler and now again as a novice chaser I am just suggesting on laws of probability that they are more likely to have told him that he only just gets home than they have told him he is a thorough stayer.

The pocket comment is my genuine experience with people broadly speaking. It is the absolute truth and reality of what I have experienced over decades of doing this.i have done it myself and I suspect we all have from time to time There was nothing easy in it at all it is hard earned through years of debates like this one. It was not aimed at you personally but absolutely is my experience more times than not. I have no clue whether you have backed him or not but my overall experience of folks broadly speaking is that their opinion gets more assertive when money is involved. Perhaps that isn’t true of you. I have no idea of knowing but kudos to you if that’s the case.

If you have backed him I totally get your frustration and fully accept I could be wrong and more importantly the trainer as well. If you haven’t then we’ve probably both spent enough time in discussing a horse a fair way down the market who isn’t even running

[Runragged]

It's the easiest comeback of all that it's pocket talk isn't it

He's ran in two chases over 3 miles and he's won both of them. To say he doesn't (or barely) stays 3 miles is speculation at best, I'd be leaning more towards nonsense.

I don't know what the jockeys are coming back saying, and I'm going to guess you don't either. But I doubt it'll be 'please swerve Cheltenham and don't run him in the BANC'.

The Ryanair mob don't even have anything in the betting below 25/1. Should be telling Gordon to fuck off like and prove he doesn't stay.

Are you having him down as not staying 2m 5f on Sunday then?

He's won twice at 3m, in 4 runner fields on good ground when able to dictate the pace. If he was going to win 3m races then it would be easiest to do so under those conditions.

Over the 3m trip at Cheltenham, on likely easy ground and a double figure field against other grade 1 horses it is a completely different test of stamina to what he has faced so far. That's not to say he couldn't stay, but everything is relative. He could just be better at 2 1/2m than 3m, doesn't mean he doesn't 'stay' 3m.

[Benjy23]

I just don't like the idea of not running them at Cheltenham in the Grade 1s when there's no conclusive evidence not to do so, and not even a viable alternative for him at the festival these days. Unless he's chucking him in the old Turners off top weight. Fair fucks if he does. He gets one novice season and there's one Cheltenham festival. Get him in there and find out.

For what it's worth. I've backed him like, as well as a few others and he'd be far from my best result... He'd probably be about 6th on my list and not running would make it easier for the rest. So I'd like to think I'm not that biased

[Benjy23]

He's won twice at 3m, in 4 runner fields on good ground when able to dictate the pace. If he was going to win 3m races then it would be easiest to do so under those conditions.

Over the 3m trip at Cheltenham, on likely easy ground and a double figure field against other grade 1 horses it is a completely different test of stamina to what he has faced so far. That's not to say he couldn't stay, but everything is relative. He could just be better at 2 1/2m than 3m, doesn't mean he doesn't 'stay' 3m.

I was going to make the point about making all in those chases but wanted to avoid that chat. I actually think the fact he made all twice over three miles and then dropped back in trip and dropped in more suggests it's the pace and not stamina that he may lack...

[Carnage at Taunton]

Well whatever we think and whatever bets we have or not on CP, end of the day his trainer does not think he stays well enough to win at the distance at the level required.
Thats it for me.

[Runragged]

I was going to make the point about making all in those chases but wanted to avoid that chat. I actually think the fact he made all twice over three miles and then dropped back in trip and dropped in more suggests it's the pace and not stamina that he may lack...

Interesting take. Watching it again, I don't think they wanted to get into a battle with Champ Kiely for the lead when it was clear the latter was going to lead. Instead they wanted to keep Croke Park out wide to get a clear sighter at the fences and to give him the best chance of winning. He has probably just been beat by a faster and classier rival. He's a good honest horse who could mop up grade 2 and 3s, but not sure he is more than that without finding improvement from somewhere.

[Kevloaf]

What's bonkers about this?
Mark of gold is a 142 rated hurdler, who won a graded novice chase on his chase debut. I think it's quite fair to suggest at this early stage he's as good a chaser as hurdler.
All 4 horses on Saturday were ridden out fully to the line.

So for the front 2 to have beaten him by 17 lengths and be given an rpr of 158, is bonkers?

This was for me the best race of the WHOLE weekend.
If jango baie turns up in the banc, he's a proper contender.

Previous 10 years scilly Isles winners rprs and Cheltenham result.

Nickleback 159. didn't go Cheltenham
gerri colombe 158. 2nd banc
l'homme presse 163. Won banc
Sporting john. 160. Fell banc
Itchy feet. 160. Fell 2m4f grade1 novice chase
defi du seuil 163 won 2m4f g1
terrefort 160. 2nd 2m4f g1
top notch 160 2nd 2m4f g1
Bristol de mai. 158. 2nd 2m4f g1
Gitane du berlais 153 didn't go

4 2nd place finishes and 2 winners from the previous 10 years, and 2 didn't go and 2 Fell.
So not a bad record when completing.

Bonkers was a tongue in cheek way of saying I think the ratings are inflated

The OR ones Archie has put up

"More realistically, Handstands given 154 OR and Jango Baie 153.

Ballyburn given 160 in Ireland."


Are much more in line with what I'd have thought was reflective of their abilities



I don't care about RPR's as much as some




Personally, Jango Baie isn't one I'll be worrying about for the BANC - at best he'd be a 'disaster double' on the day of race markets


Handstands and Jango Baie are not G1 festival winners for me




If you go back on here you'll see I've made a case for the Sciliy Isles winners many a time as your list of previous winners reminded me, and it was a useful trial for the 'JLT' each way .... now, I'm not interested in it for a BANC trial at all to be honest