2025 Novice Chasers

[chunker86]

I haven't backed either so doesn't fuss me which one Paul sits on. But Dancing City seems to have been underrated at the stable since his bumper and maiden defeat. I think he has less questions marks for 3m round Cheltenham than Ballyburn anyway. Is Ballyburn more talented? Yes. But talent alone doesn't win you a BANC - plenty of examples of the best horse not winning the BANC.

Game of opinions and all that but i think Dancing City has more questions than Ballyburn around Cheltenham.

Ballyburn 1 run 1 win on the Old Course (same as RSA) - Career Best hurdles RPR (166) at Cheltenham Festival

Ballyburn put up RPR of 150 on debut and followed that up with a 158 at Kempton giving 6lbs to Sir Gino over a distance that was clearly too sharp.

Dancing City 1 run 1 3rd place on the New Course - Significantly Worst RPR (144) of all 4 Festivals that he completed at the Cheltenham Festival - Career Best hurdles RPR of 151 - achieved 3 times - consistent, but a sign of a ceiling? He was beaten fair and square by The Jukebox Man who reopposes here.

He's run to a hurdles RPR 22lbs below Ballyburn at the Festival - it my have been the ground, it may have been the slowly run race but there's a chance the horse doesn't handle the course as well as he does others. 1 race is a very small dataset but it puts an element of doubt in there that doesn't exist with Ballyburn.

His chase debut RPR of 139 is below the 10 year trend threshold for RSA winners (by 1lb) and yesterday he beat Bioluminescene by 3.5 lengths giving weight away, if she was to reoppose here she'd be getting 7lbs off him - he was worth more than a 3.5 lengths win but not by a huge amount. I just see him as a steady 150s maybe low 160s horse who will be good enough to pick up the pieces but not good enough to go with the proper 160s horses in Ballyburn and IEP.

[DenmanSacre]

Game of opinions and all that but i think Dancing City has more questions than Ballyburn around Cheltenham.

Ballyburn 1 run 1 win on the Old Course (same as RSA) - Career Best hurdles RPR (166) at Cheltenham Festival

Ballyburn put up RPR of 150 on debut and followed that up with a 158 at Kempton giving 6lbs to Sir Gino over a distance that was clearly too sharp.

Dancing City 1 run 1 3rd place on the New Course - Significantly Worst RPR (144) of all 4 Festivals that he completed at the Cheltenham Festival - Career Best hurdles RPR of 151 - achieved 3 times - consistent, but a sign of a ceiling? He was beaten fair and square by The Jukebox Man who reopposes here.

He's run to a hurdles RPR 22lbs below Ballyburn at the Festival - it my have been the ground, it may have been the slowly run race but there's a chance the horse doesn't handle the course as well as he does others. 1 race is a very small dataset but it puts an element of doubt in there that doesn't exist with Ballyburn.

His chase debut RPR of 139 is below the 10 year trend threshold for RSA winners (by 1lb) and yesterday he beat Bioluminescene by 3.5 lengths giving weight away, if she was to reoppose here she'd be getting 7lbs off him - he was worth more than a 3.5 lengths win but not by a huge amount. I just see him as a steady 150s maybe low 160s horse who will be good enough to pick up the pieces but not good enough to go with the proper 160s horses in Ballyburn and IEP.

RPRs are IMO shit in most cases and I couldn't care less what they've been rated at over hurdles or novice chases. If they get one wrong, they just go back and amend it so if Dancing City wins the BANC they'll probably uplift a past performance. If Sir Gino and Ballyburn bomb out, they'll reduce the Kempton performance.

Course form is the only real question for Dancing City and I'd put some of that down to the ride on the day. He put TJM away at Aintree and won again at Punchestown. He was the best staying novice hurdler last year. It's also a different course for the BANC.

For Ballyburn, we can question the trip (never raced over it but I think it will be ok) and whether he's going to be too keen (which is my biggest concern).

He won easy yesterday - the weight didn't matter. Like his beginners win, Paul was waiting to make his move at the last and once he was clear, the race was over.

Not sure why I'm defending him - I haven't backed him. Ballyburn may be too good but he's never been a price I think is value and happy to take him on.

[Quevega]

RPRs are IMO shit in most cases and I couldn't care less what they've been rated at over hurdles or novice chases. If they get one wrong, they just go back and amend it so if Dancing City wins the BANC they'll probably uplift a past performance. If Sir Gino and Ballyburn bomb out, they'll reduce the Kempton performance.

Course form is the only real question for Dancing City and I'd put some of that down to the ride on the day. He put TJM away at Aintree and won again at Punchestown. He was the best staying novice hurdler last year. It's also a different course for the BANC.

For Ballyburn, we can question the trip (never raced over it but I think it will be ok) and whether he's going to be too keen (which is my biggest concern).

He won easy yesterday - the weight didn't matter. Like his beginners win, Paul was waiting to make his move at the last and once he was clear, the race was over.

Not sure why I'm defending him - I haven't backed him. Ballyburn may be too good but he's never been a price I think is value and happy to take him on.

I agree here.

And would also add that as far as RPR's go and chunkers comparison of the 2 horses.

It's pretty much common place for Higher RPR's to be given for hurdlers and chasers over the shorter distances - generally speaking of course, as you will get outliers.

But ratings systems in general are definitely geared towards speed and class and not the dour.

[EnvoiAlien]

Come on Kev. Any sensible punter knows Croke Park wins it.

Love a confident post, when it alligns with my ante post position

[Ice]

On at 100/1 so I hope so

And me so I'd take him winning !

[ComplyOrDie]

Jagwar +7 (139)
Billytherealbigred +3 (134)

[Lobos]

Jagwar +7 (139)
Billytherealbigred +3 (134)

Billy will have to come out again quickly and win then if he's to get in somewhere.

[ComplyOrDie]

Billy will have to come out again quickly and win then if he's to get in somewhere.

Most likely yeah, although we are not sure how the Jack Richards will shape up yet.

Every renewal pre 2016, bar the year Copper Bleu won it, Billy would have got in, albeit back then you had a ceiling to the ratings of the horses allowed in the race.

[Benjy23]

Most likely yeah, although we are not sure how the Jack Richards will shape up yet.

Every renewal pre 2016, bar the year Copper Bleu won it, Billy would have got in, albeit back then you had a ceiling to the ratings of the horses allowed in the race.

Aye, I'm struggling to work out the make up of this one. I still think it'd be worth something highly rated and best over the intermediate trip having a crack at it off top weight but Willie doesn't seem able to get over it being a handicap so doubt any of his will.

[Carnage at Taunton]

Aye, I'm struggling to work out the make up of this one. I still think it'd be worth something highly rated and best over the intermediate trip having a crack at it off top weight but Willie doesn't seem able to get over it being a handicap so doubt any of his will.

Jango Baie probably be close to the top if he ran in it.

[Runragged]

Jango Baie probably be close to the top if he ran in it.

Jango Baie still needs 2 more runs.

Springwell Bay I think is the general consensus off a mark of 154 at the moment.

[Carnage at Taunton]

Jango Baie still needs 2 more runs.

Springwell Bay I think is the general consensus off a mark of 154 at the moment.

Yeah, that’s unlikely now
Jango probably be Aintree
SB is a fair shout

[Benjy23]

Anyone want to remind me what the limitations are of the 'limited handicap' please?

[BuckingThe Trend]

Jango Baie still needs 2 more runs.

Springwell Bay I think is the general consensus off a mark of 154 at the moment.

Slade Steel ? Inthepocket ? Firefox ? IEP as the Willie late entry ?

[Istabraq]

Aye, I'm struggling to work out the make up of this one. I still think it'd be worth something highly rated and best over the intermediate trip having a crack at it off top weight but Willie doesn't seem able to get over it being a handicap so doubt any of his will.

Exactly.
Impossible race to even consider right now, no-one has any idea what it will look like, is topweight going to be 145 or 155 ? the Irish might look at it and boycott until it starts to take shape.
Best of luck to those trying to work it out, I won't be giving it a seconds thought until decs are confirmed....