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2025 Novice Chasers

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  • Originally posted by Kevloaf View Post
    3. I assume most people want Dancing City to win .... Ballyburn never really been a price for this
    He was 10/1 around August/September, at the time there was some confidence in here, which was matched by the market, that he would be Arkle bound....

    Comment


    • Originally posted by Kevloaf View Post



      The two you're on I do like as well

      I actually really like The Jukebox Man but his price isn't one you'd take now relative to the others, he's likely to be bigger given the races to come

      Lecky Watson wins it ​ I love what he finds off the bridle.

      I do kind of want Ballyburn to flop at the DRF, despite what I've just said to somer1 be better for my book for sureee!
      Fascinating race. No I'd not take TJMs price now either - I think him and Dancing City should be the same price.

      I'm not sure on Lecky Watson. I think his beginners race was pretty poor - Slade Steel is ok but not grade 1 class by the looks of it over fences, Blizzard of Oz beat easier next time by Quai de Bourbon, Answer to Kayf just getting runs in to get his handicap mark etc. Could be wrong but not one I'd particularly fancy. Is he running again pre Festival?

      If I was to have another bet in this, I'd be waiting for decs and seeing what the likely pace and position of each runner would be. Not sure if Croke Parks going to have serious competition up front and so it may not be the stamina test some will want, giving the advantage to the classier horses. Fairly happy with where I'm at though, with one who is a bit more speedy and the other a Martin Pipe winner out of Milan who will stay every yard up the hill.

      Comment


      • Originally posted by Kevloaf View Post

        On at 100/1 so I hope so
        O you are awful. I've only got 66/1. And I really like him. Actually been better over fences than I hoped/expected. Bonne chance mon ami.

        Comment


        • Think after the race last time they said he'd go straight there (Lecky Watson) .... will be a fair price on the day at this stage anyway but he's going the right way. Not the most obvious winner though at this stage of course, just the right type IMO

          No 'JLT' has definitely added to this race though, different types, different styles


          I've got Lecky Watson at 100/1 so best result
          Then Dancing City
          Then Better Days Ahead / Quai De Bourbon


          All over double The Jukebox Man and Ballyburn - so not my best ante post book building with the market but I like the ones I'm on for best results ... and obviously a few others in between

          Comment


          • Originally posted by BuckingThe Trend View Post

            O you are awful. I've only got 66/1. And I really like him. Actually been better over fences than I hoped/expected. Bonne chance mon ami.
            100/1 and 25/1 so average odds you've got me covered

            Comment


            • Originally posted by SeanRock View Post

              Why are you assuming Impaire Et Passe won’t go, Anthony Bromley literally name dropped the race on Friday & with the Scilly Isles looking like his next outing it’s likely he’ll be going there unbeaten but untried at the trip.

              There will be a mixture of types in the BANC field classier sorts that have versatility & tactical speed for the intermediate trip like IEP, Bally & The Jukebox Man

              vs.

              The dour stayers like Dancing City, Better Days Ahead & Quai De Bourbon


              Obviously way the race is ran will have a huge impact on who fairs better. But then again if Ballyburn or Impaire settle in midfield they could cruise along & still do the dours for a turn of foot!
              Might not be unbeaten if Jango turned up at Sandown

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              • Originally posted by Carnage at Taunton View Post

                Might not be unbeaten if Jango turned up at Sandown
                That’s fair CAT & I’d expect him to be there along with
                possibly Springwell Bay. Who else do you think might feature in the entries?

                I’s still strongly fancy IEP to win regardless of who opposes from the home team.

                Comment


                • Dancing City for me is the perfect BANC horse. As others have said this is plan F for Ballyburn which can't be good whichever way you look at it. I've got him at big odds but don't think he should be fav based on what he hasn't done. DC is the winner imo. IEP won't be turning up in the race either IMO.

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by somer1 View Post
                    As it stands at the mo i would'nt throw fake money at Ballyburn for the BANC. Just got the feeling 1. Wont stay. 2 Cant jump a fence.3 we are all seeing things we want to see. So happy to be on Dancing City.
                    I'm the total opposite. Game of opinions!

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                    • Originally posted by SeanRock View Post

                      That’s fair CAT & I’d expect him to be there along with
                      possibly Springwell Bay. Who else do you think might feature in the entries?

                      I’s still strongly fancy IEP to win regardless of who opposes from the home team.
                      Apart from those two, I’m really not sure who else will turn up The weather ain’t good all week down south, if it’s on it could well be a small field on heavy ground
                      ust be a doubt on any Irish coming over as well.

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by Carnage at Taunton View Post

                        Apart from those two, I’m really not sure who else will turn up The weather ain’t good all week down south, if it’s on it could well be a small field on heavy ground
                        ust be a doubt on any Irish coming over as well.
                        Check out the latest Sandown Park Going here. Available up to a week before each meeting, find racecourse conditions for your upcoming raceday.


                        I'm surprised by this but it looks like they're expecting no issues.
                        Fair bit of rain around for the next day or two but windy too and dry from Wed onwards...

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by Istabraq View Post

                          Check out the latest Sandown Park Going here. Available up to a week before each meeting, find racecourse conditions for your upcoming raceday.


                          I'm surprised by this but it looks like they're expecting no issues.
                          Fair bit of rain around for the next day or two but windy too and dry from Wed onwards...
                          Yeah, it’s changed from when I saw the forecast last night
                          Should be ok.

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                          • Originally posted by DenmanSacre View Post

                            I haven't backed either so doesn't fuss me which one Paul sits on. But Dancing City seems to have been underrated at the stable since his bumper and maiden defeat. I think he has less questions marks for 3m round Cheltenham than Ballyburn anyway. Is Ballyburn more talented? Yes. But talent alone doesn't win you a BANC - plenty of examples of the best horse not winning the BANC.
                            Your comments would also be supported by Willies remark that DC is a lazy (sinner) sort. He would not impress at home.

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by Kevloaf View Post

                              100/1 and 25/1 so average odds you've got me covered
                              Me to 100/1 and a 33/1 wtaf - fingers crossed !

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by Lobos View Post
                                Dancing City for me is the perfect BANC horse. As others have said this is plan F for Ballyburn which can't be good whichever way you look at it. I've got him at big odds but don't think he should be fav based on what he hasn't done. DC is the winner imo. IEP won't be turning up in the race either IMO.
                                Plan F... or quite literally Plan B?

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