2025 Novice Chasers

[Quevega]

Incredible. Really appreciate you sharing this.

With regards Springwell.

Worth remembering that no horse has ever won the plate 2m 4f with a rating of 150+

In fact no horse rated 150+ has ever won a handicap chase at the festival over 2m 4f.
Not many have done so over any distance actually.

And only one novice (who wasn't really a novice) has won any chase handicap at the festival whatsoever, with a rating over 150. - Sky Pirate won the Annual as a third season novice.

It's my most favoured stat at the festival which is why I repeat it at least once a year
Trying to help all the Rolands !

Helps me to easily rule out several runners in most races.

The only caveat is this race is a new one with new conditions, and Jonjo trained Sky Pirate so is a trends buster (although he also rarely has winners at the festival these days and I think has only 2 in the last 10 years) His mates have given him every opportunity but he's pissed most of it away.

However, I would still be very very wary of any novice rated over 150 as it just stands to reason that something lower down the handicap is likely better treated.
There's just more room for "improvement". simple as that.

[Birds Nest]

Willies opposition to running at Cheltenham seems totally out of frustration with the turners being scrapped, rather than having any real logic to it, so it's never going to be off the table imo no matter what he says.

The horse has never been tried at 3m, finishes his races strongly over 2 and a half, and looks an uncomplicated ride, so there's no actual reason to be afraid of 3m, other than being stubborn. But if the horse beats his other staying chasers and shows himself to be theyre best chance of winning the race, then i think frustration could very quickly be put to one side.

I really cant understand this plan for IEP, so they,ve decided to go chasing with IEP, giving up another Aintree hurdle worth £140,000 to the winner in order to miss the festival and target a manifesto at aintree worth £67,000 .i dont see the progression here at all for the owners or the horse. Whats the end goal for him? A 3 year plan for a ryanair...jeeez

[FinalFurlong91]

He should've gone chasing last season

He'd have won the turners and he'd currently be a short priced fav for the ryanair

They completely wasted a year of his career

[Lobos]

He should've gone chasing last season

He'd have won the turners and he'd currently be a short priced fav for the ryanair

They completely wasted a year of his career

Why not get another run into him and give him a cheeky entry into the Ryanair?

[FinalFurlong91]

Why not get another run into him and give him a cheeky entry into the Ryanair?

Don't see why not, may be a weak race if gaelic, fact to file and il est francais don't run

Nicky should be doing the same with sir gino in the champion chase just in case jonbon picks up a knock

[Lobos]

'Don't see why not, may be a weak race if gaelic, fact to file and il est francais don't run'

Agree.....don't see any of those running personally.

[FinalFurlong91]

'Don't see why not, may be a weak race if gaelic, fact to file and il est francais don't run'

Agree.....don't see any of those running personally.

Depends if JP had a few quid on fact to file for the Ryanair after GDC beat him most likely

[YoungHustler]

Don't see why not, may be a weak race if gaelic, fact to file and il est francais don't run

Nicky should be doing the same with sir gino in the champion chase just in case jonbon picks up a knock

Would love to see IEP in the Ryanair but only if El Fabiolo doesn't make it!

[Runragged]

I really cant understand this plan for IEP, so they,ve decided to go chasing with IEP, giving up another Aintree hurdle worth £140,000 to the winner in order to miss the festival and target a manifesto at aintree worth £67,000 .i dont see the progression here at all for the owners or the horse. Whats the end goal for him? A 3 year plan for a ryanair...jeeez

Very good point! There is always this obsession with going chasing with horses when they could have an extremely good career over hurdles. Is it greed? Or is it looking to maximise the potential of the horse? Or is it the very poor programme of races for horses who want 2 1/2m over hurdles? Looking now, the Aintree hurdle is the only G1 hurdle over 2 1/2m in the UK and it's no better in Ireland with the Hattons Grace the only race for the boys in the whole of the calendar. There are 3 grade 2s in Ireland at 2 1/2m, the Lismullen, run 2 weeks before the Hatton's Grace, along with the Boyne Hurdle in February and then another at the Fairyhouse meeting at the end of the season. There are only 4 grade 2s in Britain through the whole of the calendar also, so why would you want a horse at the distance when there is a lack of a programme to cater for it?

[Odin]

Majborough not declared in the 2 miler. Was this expected? I'm wondering if Ile atlantique is there to see if they've got a 2 miler who is best of the rest to help decide ballyburn fate?

[PlateHunter]

With regards Springwell.

Worth remembering that no horse has ever won the plate 2m 4f with a rating of 150+

In fact no horse rated 150+ has ever won a handicap chase at the festival over 2m 4f.
Not many have done so over any distance actually.

And only one novice (who wasn't really a novice) has won any chase handicap at the festival whatsoever, with a rating over 150. - Sky Pirate won the Annual as a third season novice.

It's my most favoured stat at the festival which is why I repeat it at least once a year
Trying to help all the Rolands !

Helps me to easily rule out several runners in most races.

The only caveat is this race is a new one with new conditions, and Jonjo trained Sky Pirate so is a trends buster (although he also rarely has winners at the festival these days and I think has only 2 in the last 10 years) His mates have given him every opportunity but he's pissed most of it away.

However, I would still be very very wary of any novice rated over 150 as it just stands to reason that something lower down the handicap is likely better treated.
There's just more room for "improvement". simple as that.

I have no shame in admitting I love the Plate and all the Cheltenham 2M4F Handicap races in the lead up to it so I am one of the few who is looking forward to the Novice equivalent.

I had Springwell Bay at the top of my list for the novice race and when he was declared for NYD I thought 'Great, another educational ride out the back, down a lb or two and he will be sat around 143 which will be perfect' You can imagine my horror when Gemirande empties like a horse who has had 5 Christmas dinners and the horse emerging out the pack to chase down the 12 year old Seddon is Springwell Bay. He has absolutely destroyed his handicap mark now (Expecting 8lb-10lb based on Il Ridoto's treatment for his emphatic win in the PPGC)

The 150+ rating stat is such a fascinating one yet so many people get sucked in by the 'graded horse in a handicap' angle.

Being the first year of the race I am hoping a lot of people get blinded by the flashier Irish horses coming over with lofty ratings and the market ignores horses that follow the below essential profile horses:

- Prominent to Midfield racing style
- Raced over 2M4F at Cheltenham over fences
- Weighted 10:7 - 11:3
- NOT RATED OVER 150+

Already looking forward to the Plate & Novice Plate thread appearing!

[Quevega]

Majborough not declared in the 2 miler. Was this expected? I'm wondering if Ile atlantique is there to see if they've got a 2 miler who is best of the rest to help decide ballyburn fate?

JP will have pulled rank I reckon

[ComplyOrDie]

JP will have pulled rank I reckon

Yeah, I can imagine Henry named it early as a target and Majborough would have only turned up had Inthepocket not been sound.

Also, what's the next option for Maj, straight to the DRF?

[Odin]

Also, what's the next option for Maj, straight to the DRF?

This was my next question - can't think of anywhere else off the top of my head?

[Exar Essay]

This was my next question - can't think of anywhere else off the top of my head?

Only other option is the Killiney Chase at 2m3f. But surely no need to step him up.