2025 Novice Hurdlers

[luisgarciaisgod]

the drop off from Townend to Rachel is absolutely massive

Rachel Blackmore leaving me with a double helping of eggs on my face.

[Eggs]

…as tomorrow nears I’m coming around to Intense Approach, as much for the jockey/trainer combo as anything. Bowen on fire, a terrific ride finishing 2nd in the Bumper. He’ll want one on the board.

[DenmanSacre]

Albert Bartlett tomorrow which has a lot of prominent racers in it so we could have them all strung out with half a mile to go, even with the ground being good.

Its a pretty strong trends race:

18/20 won or placed at graded level
9/13 ran in an Irish PTP
17/20 contested graded novice last time
15/20 1st or 2nd last time (17/20 if including 3rd place)
14/20 won or placed in a graded novice over 2m7+
10/14 won or placed in a bumper
17/20 3 or more hurdle runs
11/15 rated 140+

Jet Blue and Ballybow seem to come out best - Jet Blue doesn't have the Irish PTP run and Ballybow not rated 140+.

Jet Blue was impressive and will have the race run to suit him. He's speedy as well, as shown by his top French bumper form. Ballybows 2nd to Air of Entitlement looks even better today, getting beat by a speedier mare over an inadequate trip for him.

Yellow Car comes out quite highly as well but no Irish PTP or bumper run. Was behind Jet Blue in December but done well to win the River Don. Probably not at the class of the above but already available at 60 on the exchange and may go higher tomorrow to have a saver on.

Henry in form now and The Big Westerner has won the Limerick race but only 2 runs under rules and once in a PTP means she is inexperienced and the Limerick form isn't working out well.


Jet Blue and Ballybow will be going in the placepot and in a reverse forecast.

[FinalFurlong91]

It'll be a very different test for him that's for certain

Beating stayers over 2m5f is one thing being good enough for a champion hurdle is another

I wouldn't be backing him for a champion hurdle myself unless he was a big price which you just won't get now

[ComplyOrDie]

ComplyOrDie

I can only see TNL going for the CH next season. I'm not saying he's the winner or even place material, but he's worthy of being campaigned like one as you'd expect him to progress further.

I was never a fan of FD for the Turners (for well documented reasons) but I reluctantly understand why trainers want to avoid the AB. Plenty of other trainers have run staying chasers in the Turners in the past and some went on to reach high levels as chasers. That would not bother me one bit.

If you can see TNL in the Champion hurdle then I think calling FD a 'boat' makes no sense at all. FD was only beaten 5.5l by an all out TNL and there is no way a 'boat' would finish that close to a future champion hurdler. Yes, he's a stayer but I think 'boat' is a way over the top right now. Over fences I'd expect him to improve as he has the size, stride and scope to progress as a chaser. He's also very lightly raced due to being a late developer as a young horse. My main concern would be if they can keep him sound as sometimes those big tanks are harder to keep in one piece consistently.

Whilst FD is the same cross as Nick Rockett, I would not call them 'closely' related. That term should be reserved for half or three quarter siblings to be fair.

His price for the BANC is complete garbage though so even if anyone does like him for that race, I'd not want to take that price now. This is where those early next season price requests back fire. He was priced for next years BANC on the basis of what he'd done before the Turners. If people had waited until after the Turners, they may have got a slightly more generous price. But that's the ante post market these days, it's getting worse year on year.

I see him going for the Champion Hurdle, but like you, I'm not saying he's a winner in waiting.

Dropping back from 2m5f to 2m for one horse has little bearing on what I think of another, IMO.

Alright, not closely related but they have relative similarity, IMO, and their breeding ties in with that, for me at least. I appreciate you don't agree. Time will tell with him now.

Would not touch him with stolen money for the BANC, at them prices, so can agree with you on that.

[JackieMoon33]

ComplyOrDie

I can only see TNL going for the CH next season. I'm not saying he's the winner or even place material, but he's worthy of being campaigned like one as you'd expect him to progress further.

I was never a fan of FD for the Turners (for well documented reasons) but I reluctantly understand why trainers want to avoid the AB. Plenty of other trainers have run staying chasers in the Turners in the past and some went on to reach high levels as chasers. That would not bother me one bit.

If you can see TNL in the Champion hurdle then I think calling FD a 'boat' makes no sense at all. FD was only beaten 5.5l by an all out TNL and there is no way a 'boat' would finish that close to a future champion hurdler. Yes, he's a stayer but I think 'boat' is a way over the top right now. Over fences I'd expect him to improve as he has the size, stride and scope to progress as a chaser. He's also very lightly raced due to being a late developer as a young horse. My main concern would be if they can keep him sound as sometimes those big tanks are harder to keep in one piece consistently.

Whilst FD is the same cross as Nick Rockett, I would not call them 'closely' related. That term should be reserved for half or three quarter siblings to be fair.

His price for the BANC is complete garbage though so even if anyone does like him for that race, I'd not want to take that price now. This is where those early next season price requests back fire. He was priced for next years BANC on the basis of what he'd done before the Turners. If people had waited until after the Turners, they may have got a slightly more generous price. But that's the ante post market these days, it's getting worse year on year.

[ComplyOrDie]

I expect you are busy(I know I am!) but would be interested in your reasoning as I have the Turners as some way ahead of the Supreme in re next season.
Think TNL is a serious horse and a player in the CH should they go that way, and TYC imo a player in top nov chases.
Don’t think anything from the Supreme is CH calibre, and can see them all chasing next season at varying levels.

I'm only busy watching all my losers

My feelings pre race were that both The Yellow Clay & Final Demand would be the best of those to come out of it, but now I'm not convinced.

I think TNL will benefit from going back to 2m, personally. Harry is very good at switching horses off, he's of the Ruby Walsh mould now for me, I think he makes a fair few horses look better than they are. His development as a jockey over the past 5 years is staggering. Probably as good as he's ever been. Experience does that. Anyhow, I'm digressing.

I can see TNL in the Champion Hurdle like you said, that or the Arkle, but as FinalFurlong91 pointed out, he doesn't look the biggest.

I'm struggling with TYC & FD. The problem is in recent seasons the 2m5f race is not becoming a good race for development, with a view to the following seasons festival. Since 2019 no returning horse who won the Ballymore the previous season, has won the following season, Ballyburn added to that tally this season. Placed horses, Champ aside, are also much of a muchness. Jimmy Du Seuil did win a handicap this season, but a fair difference from a handicap to a G1. This would worry me about the race.

Whilst you could argue the same of the Supreme, it's been a much more solid race to follow. Recent seasons have had Arkle winners & Champion Hurdle winners from it. Admittedly it's also chucked up some dross, like last seasons race, but on the whole, including Ballyburn, it's looking like the novices of last season were and now are bang average anyway, so it's just a collective, rather than one particular race.

I know JackieMoon33 really likes Final Demand, but he looks an absolute boat to me. I was weary of him lacking the gears for a Ballymore, especially on that ground. He's actually closely related to Nick Rockett and this is exactly who he would remind me of. A horse that will win some very good races on the right ground and the right trip, but one that won't be a Gold Cup level of horse. He'll pay his way and win some big prizes, but I'm not having him as a BANC bet for next season (if I indeed participate next season). He might turn out to be slightly better than Nick Rockett, of course, but for now I reserve judgement.

I really really like The Yellow Clay, he's just a model of consistency, but I do think he dominated handicappers (or horses that needed a different trip) when winning his graded races in Ireland, which would say to me it's not top level form.

I may be wrong, I've been plenty wrong already this season, but these are my current thoughts.

[Carnage at Taunton]

I'm very much of the opposite opinion. I like The Yellow Clay but he's just solid for me, nothing more.

I still believe the Supreme will turn out to be the best of the novice hurdles this season.

That said, well done to all TNL backers, I certainly wasn't one of them, in fact I was very against him, but you can't win them all (or none at the moment for me ).

I expect you are busy(I know I am!) but would be interested in your reasoning as I have the Turners as some way ahead of the Supreme in re next season.
Think TNL is a serious horse and a player in the CH should they go that way, and TYC imo a player in top nov chases.
Don’t think anything from the Supreme is CH calibre, and can see them all chasing next season at varying levels.

[Hurricane fly]

I think apart of them disappointing is an obsession with them being either 2m or 3m horses.

Runners aren't either 100m or 400m, some are 200m specialists, and that's how I see 2.5m horses.

[Killiney]

And whilst the 5 year old Arkle stat remains the Challow Stat is now in the bin.

I think the Challiw stat will nearly always hold up when the ground at Newbury is testing. As it tends to bottom horses. That was not the case this year and the result was as you saw today. Harry pretty much said the same after the race. I personally thought it was a great race and I think the first 3 are very good horses.

[Zachx02]

The next in an increasingly long line of impressive 2m5f novice hurdle winners who flopped afterwards

ballyburn
impaire
sir gerhard
bob
envoi
samcro

they all failed to deliver on their promise to some extent

perhaps we should be careful getting carried away when these speedier types beat the plodder in the ballymore/Gallagher/turners

Wouldn't say impaire flopped, he was the victim of utterly stupid race planning keeping him over hurdles for a year

[FinalFurlong91]

Willie says the Bartlett ruins horses but the Turners winners never seem to progress the next season, with others overtaking them.

Indeed

The only who won the next year was bob and he'd have lost by a furlong had GDC not fallen

Samcro won as well but after a year in the wilderness and did zilch after

Envoi turned into a very solid 165 horse but nothing like as good as expected

[DenmanSacre]

The next in an increasingly long line of impressive 2m5f novice hurdle winners who flopped afterwards

ballyburn
impaire
sir gerhard
bob
envoi
samcro

they all failed to deliver on their promise to some extent

perhaps we should be careful getting carried away when these speedier types beat the plodder in the ballymore/Gallagher/turners

Willie says the Bartlett ruins horses but the Turners winners never seem to progress the next season, with others overtaking them.

[FinalFurlong91]

Having just watched Ballyburn implode in the banc can’t see 14/1 being very appealing for the 26 GC either

The next in an increasingly long line of impressive 2m5f novice hurdle winners who flopped afterwards

ballyburn
impaire
sir gerhard
bob
envoi
samcro

they all failed to deliver on their promise to some extent

perhaps we should be careful getting carried away when these speedier types beat the plodder in the ballymore/Gallagher/turners

[FinalFurlong91]

Scandalous really when you think back Monkfish won the spud race as was 10/1 for ages after.

Prices are just crap now and proper taking the edge away.

Think I got 14s monkfish and he bloody won