2025 Novice Hurdlers

[ComplyOrDie]

ComplyOrDie

I can only see TNL going for the CH next season. I'm not saying he's the winner or even place material, but he's worthy of being campaigned like one as you'd expect him to progress further.

I was never a fan of FD for the Turners (for well documented reasons) but I reluctantly understand why trainers want to avoid the AB. Plenty of other trainers have run staying chasers in the Turners in the past and some went on to reach high levels as chasers. That would not bother me one bit.

If you can see TNL in the Champion hurdle then I think calling FD a 'boat' makes no sense at all. FD was only beaten 5.5l by an all out TNL and there is no way a 'boat' would finish that close to a future champion hurdler. Yes, he's a stayer but I think 'boat' is a way over the top right now. Over fences I'd expect him to improve as he has the size, stride and scope to progress as a chaser. He's also very lightly raced due to being a late developer as a young horse. My main concern would be if they can keep him sound as sometimes those big tanks are harder to keep in one piece consistently.

Whilst FD is the same cross as Nick Rockett, I would not call them 'closely' related. That term should be reserved for half or three quarter siblings to be fair.

His price for the BANC is complete garbage though so even if anyone does like him for that race, I'd not want to take that price now. This is where those early next season price requests back fire. He was priced for next years BANC on the basis of what he'd done before the Turners. If people had waited until after the Turners, they may have got a slightly more generous price. But that's the ante post market these days, it's getting worse year on year.

I see him going for the Champion Hurdle, but like you, I'm not saying he's a winner in waiting.

Dropping back from 2m5f to 2m for one horse has little bearing on what I think of another, IMO.

Alright, not closely related but they have relative similarity, IMO, and their breeding ties in with that, for me at least. I appreciate you don't agree. Time will tell with him now.

Would not touch him with stolen money for the BANC, at them prices, so can agree with you on that.

[FinalFurlong91]

It'll be a very different test for him that's for certain

Beating stayers over 2m5f is one thing being good enough for a champion hurdle is another

I wouldn't be backing him for a champion hurdle myself unless he was a big price which you just won't get now

[DenmanSacre]

Albert Bartlett tomorrow which has a lot of prominent racers in it so we could have them all strung out with half a mile to go, even with the ground being good.

Its a pretty strong trends race:

18/20 won or placed at graded level
9/13 ran in an Irish PTP
17/20 contested graded novice last time
15/20 1st or 2nd last time (17/20 if including 3rd place)
14/20 won or placed in a graded novice over 2m7+
10/14 won or placed in a bumper
17/20 3 or more hurdle runs
11/15 rated 140+

Jet Blue and Ballybow seem to come out best - Jet Blue doesn't have the Irish PTP run and Ballybow not rated 140+.

Jet Blue was impressive and will have the race run to suit him. He's speedy as well, as shown by his top French bumper form. Ballybows 2nd to Air of Entitlement looks even better today, getting beat by a speedier mare over an inadequate trip for him.

Yellow Car comes out quite highly as well but no Irish PTP or bumper run. Was behind Jet Blue in December but done well to win the River Don. Probably not at the class of the above but already available at 60 on the exchange and may go higher tomorrow to have a saver on.

Henry in form now and The Big Westerner has won the Limerick race but only 2 runs under rules and once in a PTP means she is inexperienced and the Limerick form isn't working out well.


Jet Blue and Ballybow will be going in the placepot and in a reverse forecast.

[Eggs]

…as tomorrow nears I’m coming around to Intense Approach, as much for the jockey/trainer combo as anything. Bowen on fire, a terrific ride finishing 2nd in the Bumper. He’ll want one on the board.

[luisgarciaisgod]

the drop off from Townend to Rachel is absolutely massive

Rachel Blackmore leaving me with a double helping of eggs on my face.

[Eggs]

Rachel Blackmore leaving me with a double helping of eggs on my face.

….don’t bring me into it

[Quevega]

….don’t bring me into it

I think all concerned would be hoping you use Veet.

[DenmanSacre]

Keep him over hurdles and he'll have a great chance in the Stayers.

[AaronLad]

Keep him over hurdles and he'll have a great chance in the Stayers.

Who was the last bartlett winner to stay over hurdles?
penhill?

[Hurricane fly]

Keep him over hurdles and he'll have a great chance in the Stayers.

Agree and have taken a price on next years stayers, too small for fences, unlike the big westerner