2025 Novice Hurdlers

[JackieMoon33]

I am aware the Albert Bartlett can be a graveyard for Ante Post betting but when I look at the current market it is screaming "opportunity" at me and is ripe for a big price winner this year. Top of the market with b365 is The Yellow Clay7/2 who is 50/50 to run, then Final Demand 6/1 who likely won't run, then The Big Westerner 8/1, then Jet Blue 16/1 and 25/1 bar these 4. Am I mad to think Jasmin De Vaux at 33/1 AP and 25/1 NRNB is a great bet. They say you have to be a Stayer to win the Bumper. And Willies recent quote was "He'll go up in trip and could be an Albert Bartlett horse. I think he needs more time at his hurdles." His jumping so far has been sub standard for sure but they know that and will be working on it. If they can improve his jumping over next 5 weeks it looks like they are targeting the AB with him. I have convinced myself. Anyone else in the same camp ? Or am I mad ?

20/1 NRNB on Derryhassen Paddy would be my play

[chunker86]

I am aware the Albert Bartlett can be a graveyard for Ante Post betting but when I look at the current market it is screaming "opportunity" at me and is ripe for a big price winner this year. Top of the market with b365 is The Yellow Clay7/2 who is 50/50 to run, then Final Demand 6/1 who likely won't run, then The Big Westerner 8/1, then Jet Blue 16/1 and 25/1 bar these 4. Am I mad to think Jasmin De Vaux at 33/1 AP and 25/1 NRNB is a great bet. They say you have to be a Stayer to win the Bumper. And Willies recent quote was "He'll go up in trip and could be an Albert Bartlett horse. I think he needs more time at his hurdles." His jumping so far has been sub standard for sure but they know that and will be working on it. If they can improve his jumping over next 5 weeks it looks like they are targeting the AB with him. I have convinced myself. Anyone else in the same camp ? Or am I mad ?

Only 1 in the last 20 winners have run in a graded bumper...

[Benjy23]

That's one of those trends that you'd have to really want to see as a negative. Without any reason for it to be a negative...

His jumping would be a concern. Although I'll need to watch back the DRF. He seems to be heading this way though. And a returning champion bumper winner as Mullins potential first string at 25/1 would look good value at least. Certainly worse bets to be had.

[chunker86]

That's one of those trends that you'd have to really want to see as a negative. Without any reason for it to be a negative...

His jumping would be a concern. Although I'll need to watch back the DRF. He seems to be heading this way though. And a returning champion bumper winner as Mullins potential first string at 25/1 would look good value at least. Certainly worse bets to be had.

ok - id say most Graded Bumpers are run over 2 miles and favour the speedy types who end up in the Supreme and Ballymore as novice hurdlers, they might end up stayers over fences but generally not as novice hurdlers - when you combine that trend with several other key trends they start to stack up against him:

*won or placed in a graded hurdle
*run over at least 2m7 at least once before
*finished 1st or 2nd lto
*pre race RPR of at least 137
*won a race over at least 2m3
*not French bred
*no previous run in Cheltenham or Aintree Bumper

On the flip side you could argue that he's very close to removing several of those trends in that he's run over 2m6, he's finished 4th in a graded hurdle, his pre race hurdles RPR is 135, he's won a race over 2m, he finished 4th lto - and he meets several other key trends in that he's trained by Willie Mullins, he's won an Irish P2P, he's contested a graded novice hurdle, he's aged 6, he's won a non graded bumper & he's run in a Punchestown bumper.

He's not for me, not just on the trends, but visually on his performances, he's had 3 goes over hurdles, can't really jump and I'm not convinced he'll stay 3m in a Grade 1

[Odin]

That's one of those trends that you'd have to really want to see as a negative. Without any reason for it to be a negative...

His jumping would be a concern. Although I'll need to watch back the DRF. He seems to be heading this way though. And a returning champion bumper winner as Mullins potential first string at 25/1 would look good value at least. Certainly worse bets to be had.

I've had him in a treble with Kopek and Final Demand for micro-stakes off the back of the comments, but when I was initially watching the DRF race I thought he'd be better suited to the Ballymore as he pulled his way through the race for me (or travelled powerfully) and didn't really get home when he came through towards the end of the back straight. That said, with the exception of 1 or 2, his hurdling was considerably better I thought

[Rooster Booster]

20/1 NRNB on Derryhassen Paddy would be my play

I like these Arctic Cosmos for stamina. These fuckers can stay. The Queally mare is out of him also and she will relish a step up in trip, slower pace and testing ground if it came up that way.

[JackieMoon33]

I like these Arctic Cosmos for stamina. These fuckers can stay. The Queally mare is out of him also and she will relish a step up in trip, slower pace and testing ground if it came up that way.

I'm not a huge fan of him as a sire but he does get horses who are genuine, like a battle and will stay.

[BuckingThe Trend]

20/1 NRNB on Derryhassen Paddy would be my play

I agree and have played him at 66/1 with a 25% boost to 82.5/1 for the win part. Unfortunately not NRNB so a risk for sure.

[BuckingThe Trend]

Only 1 in the last 20 winners have run in a graded bumper...

So you do think I am mad ! lol

[JackieMoon33]

I agree and have played him at 66/1 with a 25% boost to 82.5/1 for the win part. Unfortunately not NRNB so a risk for sure.

Go big or go home. I think it's far from confirmed that he'll go to the AB as not only would he need to win his next race, you've got Aintree as a strong alternative that the yard like.

[BuckingThe Trend]

Go big or go home. I think it's far from confirmed that he'll go to the AB as not only would he need to win his next race, you've got Aintree as a strong alternative that the yard like.

I agree the risk is significant but the price could not be resisted. I think I'd had a drink at the time of placing the bet and hadn't thought it through fully. Could turn out I'm a genius drunk !

[Eggs]

I agree and have played him at 66/1 with a 25% boost to 82.5/1 for the win part. Unfortunately not NRNB so a risk for sure.

….i mentioned him in ‘under the radar’ at 100-1, I got the impression after his last run they absolutely love the horse and were minded to look after him this season but he was backed a couple of weeks ago, so maybe they’ve had a change of heart. I cashed out one of my 100-1 vouchers but kept one just in case.

There’s been a few 100-1 shots put up this year that are interesting now were coming to the business end, not least Lecky Watson who is now 14-1 BANC mentioned by nortonscoin200 and confirmed this week as heading over for the race.

[Birds Nest]

Ballybow -flemensfirth
ira hayes -mahler
Are both bred to excel in the bartlett, if your looking at big prices.

[Exar Essay]

Ballybow -flemensfirth

He's one that interests me. Since Sam Ewing mentioned that he'd probably go out in trip LTO. He beat Kalix Delabarriere and Krak in all but as convincing style as Koktail Divin and Kaid D'Authie. He's also got an entry in the Clonmel 3-miler next week. And importantly, doesn't have enough runs for a handicap.

Out of a Yeats mare too so should stay all day. Looked classy enough LTO too.

I've been chipping away on BFX and have topped up at 33/1 following today's entry.

It looks a weak year so no reason why one shouldn't emerge late in the day.

[Cheltenham Novice Chase]

How about Argento Boy for the AB? Mullins has said that’s his likely destination. His second place to The Big Westerner by one length looks good form. Added to that, the he was pulling during the race, has since come out and won by 15 lengths and the odds are juicy. Maybe?