2025 Novice Hurdlers

[Jrow]

If KDB runs in the supreme and it looks certain now, they cant have had much confidence in Salvator. KDB could win the turners or the supreme so its kind of helped me prepare mentally for the burning of many life changing slips involving SM

[Lobos]

If KDB runs in the supreme and it looks certain now, they cant have had much confidence in Salvator. KDB could win the turners or the supreme so its kind of helped me prepare mentally for the burning of many life changing slips involving SM

It only takes a stone or another Nutter Mullins horse to wipe him out ! ...

[Istabraq]

Not so sure about this personally.

Everything about that DRF win screamed Supreme winner to me. It's still plausible that Kopek goes to the Turners if PT wants to ride him, Final Demand and Salvator but that would be moving Kopek away from the race that he's most suited to.

On a personal level, it sucks massively like most of us on here. I'm still disappointed with respect to my Cheltenham multiples three days later, but objectively, it's hard to draw any conclusion from Kopek's DRF run other than the Supreme is the most suitable target for him and he would be moving away from his optimal race if he went anywhere else. Still think he'd hose up in a Turners, but that's besides the point unfortunately.

Behind my point was the inference that Mullins has an army of top level horses, in the Autumn he may have an idea on what will suit each but plans are never fixed.
We all know Mullins only really firms up targets in the weeks leading to the festival, sometimes it's a matter of days, and what happens during the course of the season determines where they all go and that includes the performances of others in the yard (hence the Final Demand suggestion).
There is still time for illness/injury to play a hand so it's back to where it has always been, decisions will be made just before the festival....

[Kevloaf]

Jax Junior is interesting. Been a revelation since his wind op for Lucy Wadham. Runs tomorrow in the Sidney Banks against Califet En Vol (The New Lion form) & Junker d'Allier (Potters Charm form, albeit PU).

25/1 NRNB for the Turners & 20/1 NRNB for the Bartlett.

I've backed both E/W today, though I suspect the Turners is most likely should he win well. There are form lines from his win LTO that would have him ahead of The New Lion on bare form. Obviously it doesn't quite work like that, but I'm really intrigued in seeing how he gets on.

I'd want 25/1 for Lucy Wadham to have any horse win at the Cheltenham Festival, let alone pick one out

[Odin]

Behind my point was the inference that Mullins has an army of top level horses, in the Autumn he may have an idea on what will suit each but plans are never fixed.
We all know Mullins only really firms up targets in the weeks leading to the festival, sometimes it's a matter of days, and what happens during the course of the season determines where they all go and that includes the performances of others in the yard (hence the Final Demand suggestion).
There is still time for illness/injury to play a hand so it's back to where it has always been, decisions will be made just before the festival....

Yes OK fair.

I'd argue it's more the way that KDB has run rather than the way FD has run which has pushed the Supreme agenda as I actually think FD looks more suited to the Bartlett based on what I saw, but I understand your point better now and our two points probably aren't mutually exclusive

[Istabraq]

Yes OK fair.

I'd argue it's more the way that KDB has run rather than the way FD has run which has pushed the Supreme agenda as I actually think FD looks more suited to the Bartlett based on what I saw, but I understand your point better now and our two points probably aren't mutually exclusive

I'd throw another dynamic in there, it's possible, likely infact, that top level novices could win either the Supreme or Turners, so how Mullins comes to the decisions he does must be an artform.
He will run 2, possibly 3, novices in the Supreme who may well be capable of winning a Turners, so as impressive as a forecast/tricast might be in a Supreme if he misses out on the Turners he must surely consider in that event that he's got it wrong.
The jury is still out on Salavtor but to my eye I have no doubts Kopek would win either race...

[Odin]

I'd throw another dynamic in there, it's possible, likely infact, that top level novices could win either the Supreme or Turners, so how Mullins comes to the decisions he does must be an artform.
He will run 2, possibly 3, novices in the Supreme who may well be capable of winning a Turners, so as impressive as a forecast/tricast might be in a Supreme if he misses out on the Turners he must surely consider in that event that he's got it wrong.
The jury is still out on Salavtor but to my eye I have no doubts Kopek would win either race...

Completely agree with this - he said as much in an interview about last year and how he'd keep his cards closer to his chest now so I was surprised he was so adamant about the targets for both KDB and FD after the races at the weekend. It also makes me wonder what he's got for the Bartlett that he's so confident about as the most obvious Townend combination is Salvator/Karbau, Kopek and Final Demand in separate races.

Like most of us here, I'd love him to perform a complete U-Turn and go with that combination so hopefully you're right that there's plenty of time for decisions to be made!

[ComplyOrDie]

I'd want 25/1 for Lucy Wadham to have any horse win at the Cheltenham Festival, let alone pick one out

Could have said the same of Martin Brassil before City Island won the race, or Tom George / Amy Murphy before finishing 1-2 in the 2018 Supreme. It only takes a poor enough looking year, which, maybe with the exception of Final Demand in the Turners, I think it does.

She also doesn't have many of that calibre to be fair, a bit like a lot of smaller trainers.

He wins well tomorrow, he'll be half the price he is now, and as a book creator yourself, he'll be one you get onside, I'm sure. He's got to do the job tomorrow first, it's his toughest assignment yet, and it could well be cash out/money back after tomorrow as he won't go if he loses.

[TigerRolllllll]

Makes sense this.
I scrambled around yesterday for the Kopek (Supreme) and Final Demand (Turners) and threw L’Eau du Sud in there for the Kingmaker at 1/2 for a 50% price push.
I think the emergence of Final Demand is what is driving the Kopek to Supreme thinking, that or Salvator isn’t showing what they’d want/expect at this stage.
Time for things to change of course…

Good luck

Every year I mention the doubles opportunities for Supreme/Turners

It’s a note to make pre DRF ….do lots NRNB options on likely combos that could play out …,and sometimes after too

Thankfully Kopek/Final was my main play but not always that lucky

just trying to think through poss bingo changes again now to add some protection…,,clearly Kopek/Kawa one were Final change due to ground, etc

More fun trying to embrace Mullins bingo than fear it

[DenmanSacre]

The bend (or close proximity) has always been the point that most horses will make their move or start to kick for home. So the fact all those winners were leading or about to lead around the bend, would still suggest they are winning the race at the finish. The other thing to note, which is always my main point, is that a lot of the horses in behind were 2.5m to 3m horses, not 2m to 2.5m horses. So it's not like you need to be a sprinter to win the race, just have a better speed at the finish versus some future stayers.

Now, Final Demand is going to really test my theory and if there is a horse that will leave me with egg on my face, it is him. Firstly it looks a very weak race as it stands without any top class 2m to 2.5m horses likely to run. He really only has one competitor in The New Lion so he's got an exceptional chance. Secondly, Final Demand could be one of those rare talents that has a speed and stamina in abundance that will enable him to win at a high level over various distance.

If Final Demand was lining up in the Turners against Bob, Envoi, IEP or Samcro, I'd take those against him (Final Demand) every time.

I do see your point but all the winners have made their move a fair way from home so it's not just speed per se that they need. I think Final Demand has shown in both races he has sufficient speed and stamina isn't an issue. Paul rides that 2m5 brilliantly and he'll make sure he's positive enough on FD at the right stages to win it.

With regards to taking on Bob, Envoi, IEP, Samcro etc we know what they did in the Turners and we know their level. We don't know what FDs level is yet so a better comparison can be made after the Festival. But they've all relatively disappointed after their Turners so I'm hoping FD doesn't follow suit in that regard. The main concern will be keeping him fit as he has talent in abundance.

[Exar Essay]

Could have said the same of Martin Brassil before City Island won the race, or Tom George / Amy Murphy before finishing 1-2 in the 2018 Supreme. It only takes a poor enough looking year, which, maybe with the exception of Final Demand in the Turners, I think it does.

She also doesn't have many of that calibre to be fair, a bit like a lot of smaller trainers.

He wins well tomorrow, he'll be half the price he is now, and as a book creator yourself, he'll be one you get onside, I'm sure. He's got to do the job tomorrow first, it's his toughest assignment yet, and it could well be cash out/money back after tomorrow as he won't go if he loses.

Lucy was on Nick Luck's podcast after JJ won last time out and she nominated the Turners, if that helps your thought process. Seeing how the two likely fields are turning out, she might change her mind though.

The 13/8 tomorrow is tempting me.

[Kevloaf]

Could have said the same of Martin Brassil before City Island won the race, or Tom George / Amy Murphy before finishing 1-2 in the 2018 Supreme. It only takes a poor enough looking year, which, maybe with the exception of Final Demand in the Turners, I think it does.

She also doesn't have many of that calibre to be fair, a bit like a lot of smaller trainers.

He wins well tomorrow, he'll be half the price he is now, and as a book creator yourself, he'll be one you get onside, I'm sure. He's got to do the job tomorrow first, it's his toughest assignment yet, and it could well be cash out/money back after tomorrow as he won't go if he loses.

Haha, you could - not sure what price they'd have been before winning their 'key trial'

You are right if he wallops the horse that was only 3L behind TNL he's a good price relative to TNL at least

Good luck!

Backing tomorrow and then for the Turners would pay more though I'm almost certain - can't see that horse not being available at double figures still even with an impressive win on a Thursday

[ComplyOrDie]

Lucy was on Nick Luck's podcast after JJ won last time out and she nominated the Turners, if that helps your thought process. Seeing how the two likely fields are turning out, she might change her mind though.

The 13/8 tomorrow is tempting me.

Thanks, hadn't see that

The fact she even has the festival on her mind tells me they must rate him quite highly.

Just to add to this, I know I mentioned the wind op already, but Tom Cannon was saying he was making a hell of a racket after his defeat back at Uttoxeter at the beginning of November, so you can be sure it was affecting him in a big way and as such all form prior can be ignored/marked up a fair bit, IMO, especially as the wind op seems to have worked incredibly well.

[Faugheen_Machine]

Not sure if helps, but we all get positions in races that are not great

One solve i have often found works, is to get creative with doubles.....i do a huge amount of these

For example if you don't have Kopek for Supreme, take another race you have a horse missing and run a double off Kopek, so least if he does win (agree likely) then you improve ur book elsewhere

Not possible with Supreme, but can fill a gap with doubles off a race with likely winners having an over-round well below 100. I did this to get more EID in book often likely Turners horses pre DRF & backing best Irish to beat New Lion (so doubles off Final/Kaid/Kawa/Yellow and Kopek NRNB)

You have probably already looked at every option, but just trying to help with ideas

Hope rest of bets looking better and good luck

Thanks for the post mate. I've kind of taken that advice.

A slight saviour was that if Salvator Mundi won the supreme, I'd have pretty much guaranteed a winning festival. This allowed me to adjusted my position on him and have 25pts on Kopek at NRNB on the Supreme.

I have put Kopek in a couple of multiples after Sunday but his price has obviously gone now.

[chunker86]

If KDB runs in the supreme and it looks certain now, they cant have had much confidence in Salvator. KDB could win the turners or the supreme so its kind of helped me prepare mentally for the burning of many life changing slips involving SM

or they have insane confidence in Final Demand and Kopek off the back of their DRF wins and Salvator will go as a very strong 2nd string.