2025 Novice Hurdlers

[riccirich]

Yeah I was just recalling their price.
Didn't Mullins have some 50/1 pig win the mares nov hurdle, don't tell me Townend was on that day...

Eglantine du seuil and no Ruby wasn't on. Don't think concertista was first choice either.

[Muswell]

Fehily was on

[DenmanSacre]

I think the main point people try to make with this is that the winner usually has 2m form, and is the type of horse that would either go supreme/turners, rather than types who would either go turners/bartlett.

Don't know what the best terminology is to describe it, turn of foot, or to put it simply just faster types. It is just an assumption of course that final demand is the latter type, but he may well be very good over 2m too.

When it comes to really good horses, especially novice hurdlers and novice chasers, I don't think distance really matters. Final Demand would have won a 2m maiden and the Sunday race, just as Kopek would have won the race on Saturday. He hurdles well enough for 2m.

[Lobos]

He's won 13/15 with horses priced 2-1 or shorter. El Fabiolo & Galopin the only ones not to win.

So when Majborough goes 2/1 or lower on the day he's a certainty against Sir Gino.

[Lobos]

So when Majborough goes 2/1 or lower on the day he's a certainty against Sir Gino.

Soz, that stat is obviously with Paul on board. That's what happens when you join the thread late !

[Hurricane fly]

Not to be a Debbie downer on DRF but did any horses come from the back to win? It seemed like every graded race was front runners being given too much leeway and not being able to be hauled in on the ground.

As a result I'm downgrading some of the results in my mind as it was mind blowing to me that jockeys never reacted to this.

[Stormez]

Not to be a Debbie downer on DRF but did any horses come from the back to win? It seemed like every graded race was front runners being given too much leeway and not being able to be hauled in on the ground.

As a result I'm downgrading some of the results in my mind as it was mind blowing to me that jockeys never reacted to this.

Probably because about 90% of the fields were running for marks!

[Quevega]

Not to be a Debbie downer on DRF but did any horses come from the back to win? It seemed like every graded race was front runners being given too much leeway and not being able to be hauled in on the ground.

As a result I'm downgrading some of the results in my mind as it was mind blowing to me that jockeys never reacted to this.

Think the mares bumper winner did.
To counter act this though.
Good luck picking something that can come from the back and beat some of those horses that did win well from the front.
Solness don't count cos that will be easy

[JackieMoon33]

It's said so much on here that it may as well be gospel, but which was the last horse to win the Turners because they had the best turn of foot? The winners likely had the best turn of foot but it's not really how they won the race.

In the last few, the winners are either clear coming round the bend or already contesting the lead as they come round the bend and then extending down the straight. It's not a race where the horse comes from behind, stalks the leaders jumping the last and shows the turn of speed to win up the hill. Envoi Allen is the last one to come from behind and that's mainly because Davy got caught out and the horse got him out of it.

Ballyburn powered away round the bend. Impaire et Passe was in the lead coming round the bend. Sir Gerhard led coming round the bend. Same for Bob Olinger.

Final Demands just gave a similar type of performance at the weekend. Challenged round the bend. Put most of the lengths into the 2nd in the final furlong. It was a strong staying performance, but he's shown pace to do the last furlong in 15.26 seconds. Hello Neighbour was slower than that off a slower place in the 2m race and he did a better final furlong than the bumper horses on the same day.

I may be talking out my arse but he'd be a confident play in this race on the day based on the likely runners and I'd be looking at the distance bets to get longer odds. I'd like to see Sixmilebridge come here though to set the pace as I'm not sure who else wants to lead and he'd help Final Demand make it a bit more of a test.

The bend (or close proximity) has always been the point that most horses will make their move or start to kick for home. So the fact all those winners were leading or about to lead around the bend, would still suggest they are winning the race at the finish. The other thing to note, which is always my main point, is that a lot of the horses in behind were 2.5m to 3m horses, not 2m to 2.5m horses. So it's not like you need to be a sprinter to win the race, just have a better speed at the finish versus some future stayers.

Now, Final Demand is going to really test my theory and if there is a horse that will leave me with egg on my face, it is him. Firstly it looks a very weak race as it stands without any top class 2m to 2.5m horses likely to run. He really only has one competitor in The New Lion so he's got an exceptional chance. Secondly, Final Demand could be one of those rare talents that has a speed and stamina in abundance that will enable him to win at a high level over various distance.

If Final Demand was lining up in the Turners against Bob, Envoi, IEP or Samcro, I'd take those against him (Final Demand) every time.

[ComplyOrDie]

Now, Final Demand is going to really test my theory and if there is a horse that will leave me with egg on my face, it is him. Firstly it looks a very weak race as it stands without any top class 2m to 2.5m horses likely to run. He really only has one competitor in The New Lion so he's got an exceptional chance. Secondly, Final Demand could be one of those rare talents that has a speed and stamina in abundance that will enable him to win at a high level over various distance.

If Final Demand was lining up in the Turners against Bob, Envoi, IEP or Samcro, I'd take those against him (Final Demand) every time.

A couple of key points there JackieMoon33 especially the first point. What is there to beat? The New Lion, a horse we've not seen off the bridle, could be a real good thing off of it, but could also be a dud, not to mention what he's actually beat.

Agree about him taking on a Bob, Envoi, IEP or Samcro too

[Kevloaf]

48 hours have passed and I've just about come to terms with the Kopek performance. I can't remember feeling so low after such a brilliant performance. Actually, it was probably when Faugheen was announced a non runner shortly after his Irish Champion Hurdle wins in 2016.

I've tried to salvage my ante post book the best I can but it's not looking great at the moment. I went from dreaming of semi retirement to at damage limitation in the space of about 5 minutes.

Maybe one day I'll learn not to swing from the hip to this extent, or at least cover other possible targets when I do!

I can't see anything getting close to him in the Supreme. He looks a superstar in the making on that performance.

A bit of an Appreciate It season for the Supreme?

Just looks standout compared to the rest

[TigerRolllllll]

48 hours have passed and I've just about come to terms with the Kopek performance. I can't remember feeling so low after such a brilliant performance. Actually, it was probably when Faugheen was announced a non runner shortly after his Irish Champion Hurdle wins in 2016.

I've tried to salvage my ante post book the best I can but it's not looking great at the moment. I went from dreaming of semi retirement to at damage limitation in the space of about 5 minutes.

Maybe one day I'll learn not to swing from the hip to this extent, or at least cover other possible targets when I do!

I can't see anything getting close to him in the Supreme. He looks a superstar in the making on that performance.

Not sure if helps, but we all get positions in races that are not great

One solve i have often found works, is to get creative with doubles.....i do a huge amount of these

For example if you don't have Kopek for Supreme, take another race you have a horse missing and run a double off Kopek, so least if he does win (agree likely) then you improve ur book elsewhere

Not possible with Supreme, but can fill a gap with doubles off a race with likely winners having an over-round well below 100. I did this to get more EID in book often likely Turners horses pre DRF & backing best Irish to beat New Lion (so doubles off Final/Kaid/Kawa/Yellow and Kopek NRNB)

You have probably already looked at every option, but just trying to help with ideas

Hope rest of bets looking better and good luck

[Istabraq]

Not sure if helps, but we all get positions in races that are not great

One solve i have often found works, is to get creative with doubles.....i do a huge amount of these

For example if you don't have Kopek for Supreme, take another race you have a horse missing and run a double off Kopek, so least if he does win (agree likely) then you improve ur book elsewhere

Not possible with Supreme, but can fill a gap with doubles off a race with likely winners having an over-round well below 100. I did this to get more EID in book often likely Turners horses pre DRF & backing best Irish to beat New Lion (so doubles off Final/Kaid/Kawa/Yellow and Kopek NRNB)

You have probably already looked at every option, but just trying to help with ideas

Hope rest of bets looking better and good luck

Makes sense this.
I scrambled around yesterday for the Kopek (Supreme) and Final Demand (Turners) and threw L’Eau du Sud in there for the Kingmaker at 1/2 for a 50% price push.
I think the emergence of Final Demand is what is driving the Kopek to Supreme thinking, that or Salvator isn’t showing what they’d want/expect at this stage.
Time for things to change of course…

[Odin]

Makes sense this.
I scrambled around yesterday for the Kopek (Supreme) and Final Demand (Turners) and threw L’Eau du Sud in there for the Kingmaker at 1/2 for a 50% price push.
I think the emergence of Final Demand is what is driving the Kopek to Supreme thinking, that or Salvator isn’t showing what they’d want/expect at this stage.
Time for things to change of course…

Not so sure about this personally.

Everything about that DRF win screamed Supreme winner to me. It's still plausible that Kopek goes to the Turners if PT wants to ride him, Final Demand and Salvator but that would be moving Kopek away from the race that he's most suited to.

On a personal level, it sucks massively like most of us on here. I'm still disappointed with respect to my Cheltenham multiples three days later, but objectively, it's hard to draw any conclusion from Kopek's DRF run other than the Supreme is the most suitable target for him and he would be moving away from his optimal race if he went anywhere else. Still think he'd hose up in a Turners, but that's besides the point unfortunately.

[ComplyOrDie]

Jax Junior is interesting. Been a revelation since his wind op for Lucy Wadham. Runs tomorrow in the Sidney Banks against Califet En Vol (The New Lion form) & Junker d'Allier (Potters Charm form, albeit PU).

25/1 NRNB for the Turners & 20/1 NRNB for the Bartlett.

I've backed both E/W today, though I suspect the Turners is most likely should he win well. There are form lines from his win LTO that would have him ahead of The New Lion on bare form. Obviously it doesn't quite work like that, but I'm really intrigued in seeing how he gets on.