2025 Novice Hurdlers

[JackieMoon33]

Must have gone too slow at some point then.

Or Nicanor was just the better horse over that trip. If it had been over 3m then the places may been reversed but we never got to find that out.

[Lobos]

Yeah I didn't put it across perfectly but does Ballyburn have a turn of foot or can he just power forward - Denman like.
I agree that a slow pace in the Turners may be a potential issue for a horse like Final Demand, but a slow pace tends to generally bring lesser types into the fray anyhow.
It's only the true gallops that sort out the best horses.

Someone likened him to Galopin yesterday and I can see why to some extent. Like you say, he looks the type to just power on when everyone else has had enough without needing to have that extra turn of foot.

[JackieMoon33]

Someone likened him to Galopin yesterday and I can see why to some extent. Like you say, he looks the type to just power on when everyone else has had enough without needing to have that extra turn of foot.

Alternatively, rather than other horses going backwards, maybe GDC and Ballyburn are able to pull away from the one-paced sloggers who have no extra gear at the finish?

[ComplyOrDie]

Final Demand ticks the boxes (for me) for a Turners, all bar not being seen in a bumper. I'm surprised, with the exception of JackieMoon33, that he was rarely mentioned until debut, and even then it was mostly the Bartlett talk, including by myself.

I must admit, I was expecting him to be in bumpers.

I'm still not sure he looks like your typical Turners winner, but he may not have to be looking at the field.

Of the most recent winners of the race I'd probably liken him most to Samcro, in terms of size and stature, probably not quite as pacey but he's a strong looking type, who clearly travels well.

No horse has done the Golden Cygnet / Turners double since it's been run over 2m6f, so here's hoping Final Demand can break that.

[JackieMoon33]

Final demand ticks the boxes (for me) for a Turners, all bar not being seen in a bumper. I'm surprised, with the exception of JackieMoon33, that he was rarely mentioned until debut, and even then it was mostly the Bartlett talk, including by myself.

I must admit, I was expecting him to be in bumpers.

I'm still not sure he looks like your typical Turners winner, but he may not have to be looking at the field.

Of the most recent winners of the race I'd probably liken him most to Samcro, in terms of size and stature, probably not quite as pacey but he's a strong looking type, who clearly travels well.

No horse has done the Golden Cygnet / Turners double since it's been run over 2m6f, so here's hoping Final Demand can break that.

That's because no one is as mental as me and trying to predict the AB winner in the previous spring

[ComplyOrDie]

That's because no one is as mental as me and trying to predict the AB winner in the previous spring

Valid point

[JackieMoon33]

Valid point

I was hoping I'd be able to brandish my trumpet for having back to back AB winners from the previous spring. Derryhassen Paddy could still be a live one but *cough* *cough* The Enabler has been a let down.

[BuckingThe Trend]

I’ve been interested in Karniquet & Karafon for the hcaps for the last few weeks based on the fact this weekend was their 5th run & so many from previous years wouldn’t meet the criteria this year.

I think Karafon ran fine from the front as he’s a stayer & was clearly running for the mark & im sure he’ll rock up in the Pipe off a mark in the 130s but for me, Karniquet is the fascinating one linked to those ratings.

Last year Ballyburn won by 7 lengths from Slade Steel & was given a BHA mark of 157 when declared for the Turners. Slade Steel was given 147 when declared for (before winning) the Supreme. Previous to that 7 length second, he’d won a maiden & a G2 (from Lecky Watson by half length over 2m5)

For context, State Man was given BHA 141 after winning a tin pot maiden by 12 lengths, no graded form.

Karniquet has been beaten 13 lengths by KDB. I can’t see how they can rate KDB any higher than 160 as there is not much graded form in behind / time etc. The third (UK horse Good & Clever) was beaten a further 9 lengths (total 22) which links in through Potters Charm that beat it 7 lengths & is currently rated 145.

With all that noted (allowing for the fact the UK capper is trying to even the balance still) I just can’t see how Karniquet doesn’t get something in the 140-145 range. Whilst that would put him in the Pipe, he just looks like he’d settle & travel in a county & be a perfect Townend ride. When he won on his Irish debut I recall PT saying he gave him a great feel & was above average. 10/1 NRNB for a race he’s qualified for where so many in the betting are not. That’s a bet for me….

Karniquet has been given 144 after the weekend. Add on the English tax and I fear he has blown his mark for the Martin Pipe. So it is likely to be the County Hurdle if he goes to Cheltenham.

[Quevega]

Don't forget the reason a turn of foot, change of gear is important is that the race is usually a bit more steadily run than the supreme, largely down to the positioning of the start and the hurdles etc.
That's why in general, to have that capacity is considered an asset for the turners
If you're on a horse that might not have that then your relying on the jockey to increase the gallop, if there is none, at the right time and gradually burn them off.

[Quevega]

Karniquet has been given 144 after the weekend. Add on the English tax and I fear he has blown his mark for the Martin Pipe. So it is likely to be the County Hurdle if he goes to Cheltenham.

I'd imagine the o'learys would let him have a go at one of the graded races.

[JackieMoon33]

Karniquet has been given 144 after the weekend. Add on the English tax and I fear he has blown his mark for the Martin Pipe. So it is likely to be the County Hurdle if he goes to Cheltenham.

I have another controversial connection that would disagree with this. I have the MP down as a race for stayers so if a horse I fancy for that race can't get in, I'd only want to then back it for the Coral Cup, not the County. I personally don't think County winners would run well in the MP and vice versa.

[ComplyOrDie]

Don't forget the reason a turn of foot, change of gear is important is that the race is usually a bit more steadily run than the supreme, largely down to the positioning of the start and the hurdles etc.
That's why in general, to have that capacity is considered an asset for the turners
If you're on a horse that might not have that then your relying on the jockey to increase the gallop, if there is none, at the right time and gradually burn them off.

This is one concern I have, that said, have we seen anything with a real turn of foot this season?

[JackieMoon33]

This is one concern I have, that said, have we seen anything with a real turn of foot this season?

Exactly. FD may get away with it this year just because the likely field will be piss poor. Certainly would not have him over KDB this year and wouldn't have taken him over the likes of Samcro, Envoi, Bob or IEP in recent years.

[ComplyOrDie]

Argento Boy - Another who looks like Willie hasn't schooled! Fair engine though to keep going off the back of that hurdling! Could be a fair chaser next season if taking to fences better than hurdles.

[Kevloaf]

Argento Boy - Another who looks like Willie hasn't schooled! Fair engine though to keep going off the back of that hurdling! Could be a fair chaser next season if taking to fences better than hurdles.

This doesn't read like a post that's going to make me think I'm on a live one when I watch the replay later