2025 Novice Hurdlers

[Kevloaf]

I wonder if there's a chance salvator mundi could be supplemented for the turners.

If paul wants to ride all three, then the scenario that most are talking about would involve persuading two sets of owners to go for races that arent seemingly preferable. Moving kopek up to the turners to avoid a horse that he looks better than in salvator mundi (so far), and then moving final demand to the spud race when he looks classy enough for the turners, and where the same owners already have jet blue.

But if salvator was to be supplemented, then I think that would mean only really needing to convince the owners of final demand to go for the bartlett, as the donnellys apparently aren't fussy about race targets, and even if they were, would they object much to going for the turners as likely favourite and avoiding kopek? If they failed to settle kopek in the turners, the owners wouldn't be happy as they'd be thinking he'd have won the supreme, but if they failed to settle salvator and kopek won the supreme impressively, they could always say salvator wouldn't have beaten kopek anyway.

I think a little bit too much is being made (or a narrative being created) that the Donnolly's need to be kept happy, or need a runner in each race, or their horses are split etc (not you specifically mate)

We only have to go back to this weekend to see them double entered at the DRF ... they ran two against each other in the Supreme (6/1 Shishkin and 9/4 Asterion Forlonge) - they had The Big Getaway for the 'Turners' so feasibly could have pushed him up and had 1 in each race?

Point being, decisions are made to run the horses in the right race for each horse...and with only 1 entry for Salvator Mundi, I think it's pretty clear that's where he's going, regardless of other stables horses, the stable jockeys choice or anything else (if he's fit and well)


For Willie, who does bulk enter, it'd be highly unusual, and to be honest at the likely price he'd be, I don't think he'd be a strong fancy anyway up in trip based off his last run on the track



It does set up the 'Danny Donnolly Double' ..... will be pick up the ride on Salvator Mundi and Dancing City? Both good second favs?

[riccirich]

I think a little bit too much is being made (or a narrative being created) that the Donnolly's need to be kept happy, or need a runner in each race, or their horses are split etc (not you specifically mate)

We only have to go back to this weekend to see them double entered at the DRF ... they ran two against each other in the Supreme (6/1 Shishkin and 9/4 Asterion Forlonge) - they had The Big Getaway for the 'Turners' so feasibly could have pushed him up and had 1 in each race?

Point being, decisions are made to run the horses in the right race for each horse...and with only 1 entry for Salvator Mundi, I think it's pretty clear that's where he's going, regardless of other stables horses, the stable jockeys choice or anything else (if he's fit and well)


For Willie, who does bulk enter, it'd be highly unusual, and to be honest at the likely price he'd be, I don't think he'd be a strong fancy anyway up in trip based off his last run on the track



It does set up the 'Danny Donnolly Double' ..... will be pick up the ride on Salvator Mundi and Dancing City? Both good second favs?

Yeah my thinking is mainly driven by the theory that it's important what paul wants to ride, which I've no idea how important that is exactly. But if it is then the split that I've mentioned may be easier to pull off than the one most are thinking about.

I think it was run4home who said last season the usual way they do it is after working close to the festival, paul then picks the three he wants to ride and they are then split. But that may not be important enough for them to go about convincing one set of owners to switch race. In a case like this willie may just say that isn't happening and paul has to then make a choice between two of them.

The human anchor possibly gets the salvator ride no?

[Mighty]

Yeah my thinking is mainly driven by the theory that it's important what paul wants to ride, which I've no idea how important that is exactly. But if it is then the split that I've mentioned may be easier to pull off than the one most are thinking about.

I think it was run4home who said last season the usual way they do it is after working close to the festival, paul then picks the three he wants to ride and they are then split. But that may not be important enough for them to go about convincing one set of owners to switch race. In a case like this willie may just say that isn't happening and paul has to then make a choice between two of them.

The only owner who gets a choice though is JP. So for the three horses in question that’s moot…

[Quevega]

Firstly, regardless of what he does in the Turners, he'll be a GC horse in two years time. He's a weapon.

Final Demand will test my theory that's for sure! I'll stick my neck out and say I don't think he'll have the boot for the Turners but it's lacking depth so he may get away with it. You'd certainly have KDB to beat him over that trip if he turned up.

With the benefit of hindsight.
Do you think Ballyburn was a typical Turners horse ? I didn't before we saw him race.
I'd be fairly happy Final Demand has the boot to win a Turners after having seen him race.

Interesting also that Ruby says Final Demand is nothing like a Walk in the Park and feels more like a Flemensfirth, when he rides him.

[riccirich]

The only owner who gets a choice though is JP. So for the three horses in question that’s moot…

Definitely seems the case with the bigger name owners. I don't know enough about the owners of kopek and final demand to know whether they'd be the type to kick up a stink if they felt they weren't going for the right race for they're horse. Could well be moot.

[JackieMoon33]

With the benefit of hindsight.
Do you think Ballyburn was a typical Turners horse ? I didn't before we saw him race.
I'd be fairly happy Final Demand has the boot to win a Turners after having seen him race.

Interesting also that Ruby says Final Demand is nothing like a Walk in the Park and feels more like a Flemensfirth, when he rides him.

Had the Ballyburn argument many times. If you’d looked at his pedigree alone, you’d have predicted he’d be an AB type.

Final Demand has not had to show any ‘boot’ yet in any of his races, P2P and rules, so it’s not conclusive. He’s got a huge engine and cruising speed but no idea if there will be a turn of foot at then end. It could be that nothing will live with him anyway so he’ll not need it anyway. But as I said on another post, I’d take KDB to beat him in the Turners personally.

[JackieMoon33]

Definitely seems the case with the bigger name owners. I don't know enough about the owners of kopek and final demand to know whether they'd be the type to kick up a stink if they felt they weren't going for the right race for they're horse. Could well be moot.

You don’t go to a Michelin star restaurant and then tell the chef how to cook your dinner.

[Quevega]

Had the Ballyburn argument many times. If you’d looked at his pedigree alone, you’d have predicted he’d be an AB type.

Final Demand has not had to show any ‘boot’ yet in any of his races, P2P and rules, so it’s not conclusive. He’s got a huge engine and cruising speed but no idea of they’ll be a turn of foot at then end. It could be that nothing will live with him anyway so he’ll not need it anyway. But as I said on another post, I’d take KDB to beat him in the Turners personally.

Yeah I didn't put it across perfectly but does Ballyburn have a turn of foot or can he just power forward - Denman like.
I agree that a slow pace in the Turners may be a potential issue for a horse like Final Demand, but a slow pace tends to generally bring lesser types into the fray anyhow.
It's only the true gallops that sort out the best horses.

[Quevega]

You don’t go to a Michelin star restaurant and then tell the chef how to cook your dinner.

What if you own the restaurant and pay the chef's wages ?

[riccirich]

You don’t go to a Michelin star restaurant and then tell the chef how to cook your dinner.

But you do complain if they give you burned steak, and then tell you it didn't need shorter

[JackieMoon33]

What if you own the restaurant and pay the chef's wages ?

Then your horses run in green and gold.

[Mighty]

Thought this was interesting regarding Final Demand:

https://x.com/sean__dunne1/status/1886401515201437933?s=46&t=JKozg8_QAp9QKCXBG0j_tA

[JackieMoon33]

Yeah I didn't put it across perfectly but does Ballyburn have a turn of foot or can he just power forward - Denman like.
I agree that a slow pace in the Turners may be a potential issue for a horse like Final Demand, but a slow pace tends to generally bring lesser types into the fray anyhow.
It's only the true gallops that sort out the best horses.

Denman is the reason I introduced the rule when betting on the Turners. Could gallop away and win over the intermediate trip but as soon as there was something that could go the gallop but have a better finishing kick, he was cooked. Nicanor didn’t outstay Denman, he was just a faster finisher at that trip.

[AaronLad]

Remember when willie said in his sporting life stable tour about salvator mundi something along the lines of 1 more run and he'll have the required runs for the county.
It wasn't quite correct at the time because all horses require 5 runs. But it is correct now.

I'm sure there's a listed race at punchestown, Sheila bourke novice hurdle?
Get him in that, carrying a penalty, give him a fat cigar the night before and Paul townend can ride him in the county.

[Quevega]

Denman is the reason I introduced the rule when betting on the Turners. Could gallop away and win over the intermediate trip but as soon as there was something that could go the gallop but have a better finishing kick, he was cooked. Nicanor didn’t outstay Denman, he was just a faster finisher at that trip.

Must have gone too slow at some point then.