2025 Novice Hurdlers

[Quevega]

I put Ruby's comment on here for a reason.
This whole yards number one thing has been discussed on here over the years many times.

You've got to do it on the track when it matters.
Doesn't mean the yard don't have faith in other horses anymore, just means that the current pecking order, especially in terms of jockey picks has changed, for now.

And as I've said, all these horses have a chance, at least the good ones, as they are novices and the supreme and turners are tests for these horses, and there are circumstances that might lead to a change of what is perceived to be the plans at the minute. Just not that likely.

[JackieMoon33]

Completely agree about the "never dreaming of it" it point. Willie wouldn't have run him over 2m5f on debut at Limerick and then in the 2m6f Grade One if he didn't even consider it. How many Ballymore winners would've done so running over their shortest distance to date? I don't know, but it can't be many. Most come in with 2 mile form. That being said, I do think Willie was categoric yesterday and he will run in the Ballymore.

JackieMoon33 What did you think of Final Demand? Do we genuinely have a horse that could win a Bartlett or Ballymore? Or are you against Final Demand on this basis?

Firstly, regardless of what he does in the Turners, he'll be a GC horse in two years time. He's a weapon.

Final Demand will test my theory that's for sure! I'll stick my neck out and say I don't think he'll have the boot for the Turners but it's lacking depth so he may get away with it. You'd certainly have KDB to beat him over that trip if he turned up.

[Exar Essay]

The HRI missive to its members is that the requirement is to have completed the requisite amount of runs. Which suggests the PU doesn’t count?

https://www.hri-ras.ie/getmedia/8eb2...lification.pdf

I emailed the BHA to ask and, contrary to the above, they've advised that it is number of race starts as opposed to completion or any other criteria.

[Craigy14]

Not forgotten for me, if I had to pick a bet at current prices, she'd be it

Aye I’d agree.

It’s an open looking race, Nicholls has Belliano out tomorrow (or Wed) who was beat by The New Lion on debut. Wentigo also a big price chasing home TNL in the Challow. Wingmen and The Big Westener set the standard for me though.

[Kevloaf]

Firstly, regardless of what he does in the Turners, he'll be a GC horse in two years time. He's a weapon.

Final Demand will test my theory that's for sure! I'll stick my neck out and say I don't think he'll have the boot for the Turners but it's lacking depth so he may get away with it. You'd certainly have KDB to beat him over that trip if he turned up.

Been a while since we had a boat win the Gold Cup ... but we will be due one

Looking at his Top Speed rating, he got 129 this weekend
Kopek got 131

I don't ever use them or fully understand them, but they look close enough yet back up what you're saying?

[delsie777]

Remember Ruby's total deflation after the Moscow Flyer? Like - Christ! Is that the best we've got? Compare that with yesterday,

And Lossiemouth was a long way in front on time because she was going too feckin' fast! Trying to do a Brighterdaysahead. You only have to see the way ole Long Legs finished.

[JackieMoon33]

Been a while since we had a boat win the Gold Cup ... but we will be due one

Looking at his Top Speed rating, he got 129 this weekend
Kopek got 131

I don't ever use them or fully understand them, but they look close enough yet back up what you're saying?

I'm old school - what is a top speed rating? If its in miles per hour then they were going much faster than I thought!

[Kevloaf]

I'm old school - what is a top speed rating? If its in miles per hour then they were going much faster than I thought!

Haha I don't know, it's the one on the RP cards next to OR and RPR

I did learn what it meant once .... well, can't have 'learnt' it as I don't recall

Can't be universally popular but good if anyone does find it handy to explain?

[Quevega]

Jane mangan made a good point on Road to Cheltenham about Galileo Dame.

Wonder if she does get an entry in the mares novice hurdle.
She'd be interesting to me.

The fact she's 4 is no real bother as she has plenty of experience on the flat. Rated 96.
She hurdles well and I thought she came out best of them all in the grade 1 at the weekend, as she was held up off a slow pace and the winner had first run.
The doubt would be how good the juveniles are this year in Ireland as the usual grade 1 would sort them out but they went no gallop so hard to tell who has the guts for a triumph. And on the face of it the UK big 2 look clearly better.

She would get 10lbs off all the older mares.

10-1 NRNB

[JackieMoon33]

Haha I don't know, it's the one on the RP cards next to OR and RPR

I did learn what it meant once .... well, can't have 'learnt' it as I don't recall

Can't be universally popular but good if anyone does find it handy to explain?

I've seen it but don't know how it's calculated so I've never used it as a tool. I'm sure it has some use but I'd need to know the process behind the number.

[Istabraq]

You need to read this back. I did it - at least twice.
It makes no sense whatsoever.

The markets are always the best guide ?
If this is true, which markets are the best guide ?
Last weeks ?
Or todays ?

Mundi was a "favourite" because he won a grade 2 trial, and there had been nothing else from Mullins, other than maiden winners. Then the UK horses ? and an Elliott grade 1 winner that had been beaten on his previous start.
He wasn't solid in a million years IMO, and the weekend just proved it.

Not sure what's confusing you Q.

The markets are always the best guide because people who have access to the knowledge and information that we don't are also punters, so if SM is 3/1 and has been solid at that price since his Punchestown run then it's because those more knowledgeable than us are aware of abilities, form and race planning.
In fact I think he went 7/2 best price in the immediate aftermath of that race and has been clipped since.
It's therefore safe to assume SM was the yards #1 Supreme horse between Punchestown and DRF and probably since last Summer as he's pretty much always been the shortest Mullins Supreme horse in the market.
Had that not been the case and Kopek Des Bordes was always considered the #1 Supreme horse then his price would have contracted and SM would have been pushed out because those that know more would have been taking advantage of what they knew was an incorrect market.

This morning Gerri Collombe has been confirmed as out, there has been a significant drift on that one in recent days so no-one should be shocked but it follows the trend of the markets generally being the best guide...

[Quevega]

Not sure what's confusing you Q.

The markets are always the best guide because people who have access to the knowledge and information that we don't are also punters, so if SM is 3/1 and has been solid at that price since his Punchestown run then it's because those more knowledgeable than us are aware of abilities, form and race planning.
In fact I think he went 7/2 best price in the immediate aftermath of that race and has been clipped since.
It's therefore safe to assume SM was the yards #1 Supreme horse between Punchestown and DRF and probably since last Summer as he's pretty much always been the shortest Mullins Supreme horse in the market.
Had that not been the case and Kopek Des Bordes was always considered the #1 Supreme horse then his price would have contracted and SM would have been pushed out because those that know more would have been taking advantage of what they knew was an incorrect market.

This morning Gerri Collombe has been confirmed as out, there has been a significant drift on that one in recent days so no-one should be shocked but it follows the trend of the markets generally being the best guide...

This is a worse effort than your first post.
0/10.
Don't think it's me that's confused

You're acting like everything is decided at the start of the season and nothing changes on the track !

You haven't answered any of my questions either.

Answer me this,

Who is the stable number 1 for the supreme this morning ?

Which markets are the best guide ? - multiple choice this one - Last Fridays ? or this morning ?

[Splinterboy82]

Thought the RPR's were quite interesting from Kopek's race compared to Ballyburn's the year before.

Top 5 in Kopek's
153
131 Karniquet
122
117
114

Top 5 in Ballyburn's
157
147 Slade Steel
140
137
136

Kind of backs up a few posts I've seen on Twitter that hint the pace of Kopek's race shouldn't have left the field as far back as it did. However, it would also seem unlikely that all those in behind Kopek who were paddling coming round the bend underperformed. Not sure what to make of it really.

I think it is very easy to get caught up in recency bias. My gut feeling is that Salvator will make Kopek earn the Supreme come March.

I’ve been interested in Karniquet & Karafon for the hcaps for the last few weeks based on the fact this weekend was their 5th run & so many from previous years wouldn’t meet the criteria this year.

I think Karafon ran fine from the front as he’s a stayer & was clearly running for the mark & im sure he’ll rock up in the Pipe off a mark in the 130s but for me, Karniquet is the fascinating one linked to those ratings.

Last year Ballyburn won by 7 lengths from Slade Steel & was given a BHA mark of 157 when declared for the Turners. Slade Steel was given 147 when declared for (before winning) the Supreme. Previous to that 7 length second, he’d won a maiden & a G2 (from Lecky Watson by half length over 2m5)

For context, State Man was given BHA 141 after winning a tin pot maiden by 12 lengths, no graded form.

Karniquet has been beaten 13 lengths by KDB. I can’t see how they can rate KDB any higher than 160 as there is not much graded form in behind / time etc. The third (UK horse Good & Clever) was beaten a further 9 lengths (total 22) which links in through Potters Charm that beat it 7 lengths & is currently rated 145.

With all that noted (allowing for the fact the UK capper is trying to even the balance still) I just can’t see how Karniquet doesn’t get something in the 140-145 range. Whilst that would put him in the Pipe, he just looks like he’d settle & travel in a county & be a perfect Townend ride. When he won on his Irish debut I recall PT saying he gave him a great feel & was above average. 10/1 NRNB for a race he’s qualified for where so many in the betting are not. That’s a bet for me….

[riccirich]

I wonder if there's a chance salvator mundi could be supplemented for the turners.

If paul wants to ride all three, then the scenario that most are talking about would involve persuading two sets of owners to go for races that arent seemingly preferable. Moving kopek up to the turners to avoid a horse that he looks better than in salvator mundi (so far), and then moving final demand to the spud race when he looks classy enough for the turners, and where the same owners already have jet blue.

But if salvator was to be supplemented, then I think that would mean only really needing to convince the owners of final demand to go for the bartlett, as the donnellys apparently aren't fussy about race targets, and even if they were, would they object much to going for the turners as likely favourite and avoiding kopek? If they failed to settle kopek in the turners, the owners wouldn't be happy as they'd be thinking he'd have won the supreme, but if they failed to settle salvator and kopek won the supreme impressively, they could always say salvator wouldn't have beaten kopek anyway.

Edit: yes willie has already seemingly discounted the bartlett for final demand, but once the dust has settled who knows. Im also going by what some posters have said about how they decide race targets for Cheltenham, where apparently townend picks the three he wants to ride and then they are separated. Although I'm not sure how important that is.

[Rooster Booster]

I wonder if there's a chance salvator mundi could be supplemented for the turners.

If paul wants to ride all three, then the scenario that most are talking about would involve persuading two sets of owners to go for races that arent seemingly preferable. Moving kopek up to the turners to avoid a horse that he looks better than in salvator mundi (so far), and then moving final demand to the spud race when he looks classy enough for the turners, and where the same owners already have jet blue.

But if salvator was to be supplemented, then I think that would mean only really needing to convince the owners of final demand to go for the bartlett, as the donnellys apparently aren't fussy about race targets, and even if they were, would they object much to going for the turners as likely favourite and avoiding kopek? If they failed to settle kopek in the turners, the owners wouldn't be happy as they'd be thinking he'd have won the supreme, but if they failed to settle salvator and kopek won the supreme impressively, they could always say salvator wouldn't have beaten kopek anyway.

If Paul wants to ride all three he will have to rely on his alter ego to ride one