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Watching that interview he sort of says mundi hasnt had his moment in the sun like KDB had yest. On reflection KDB looks suited to the supreme and it appears FD isnt going the bartlett based off of that interview. If you have SM at good prices for the supreme I suppose your only hope is that Willie has ran his top novices against each other in the turners in recent years rather than loading up in the supreme. So there may be a world in which FD and KDB face off still.
As a man who loses all of his multiples when Kopek goes to the Supreme, I'd urge you to prepare for the worst with respect to this scenario. It's extremely clear that for Willie it will be:
KDB/Salvator: Supreme
Final Demand: Turners
Ironically, it could be that KDB going Supreme and making the running actually helps Salvator to perform to his best as it guarantees a strongly run race.
PS,
I had more to gain for Kopek going turners also.
But also hedged in case of this, as winning a grade 2 with multiple issues was not a "specimen" type of performance.
He still has a chance to win the race, makes the supreme a decent little race and the turners also looks tasty now.
Be amazed if he doesn't get close to double figures on or near the day, if they all stand their ground.
Where are those that said the novices looked average this year ?
Hiding in plain sight those two and the betting this weekend seemed pretty clear how much they expected.
And they delivered, and some.
The bartlett can be like it is most years and be full of staying types that are going over fences next year.
Maybe Gordon will run Yellow Clay and he could be the class angle.
He was available at mid teen prices on the exchange whilst all the faff was going on yesterday.
PS,
I had more to gain for Kopek going turners also.
But also hedged in case of this, as winning a grade 2 with multiple issues was not a "specimen" type of performance.
He still has a chance to win the race, makes the supreme a decent little race and the turners also looks tasty now.
Be amazed if he doesn't get close to double figures on or near the day, if they all stand their ground.
Where are those that said the novices looked average this year ?
Hiding in plain sight those two and the betting this weekend seemed pretty clear how much they expected.
And they delivered, and some.
The bartlett can be like it is most years and be full of staying types that are going over fences next year.
Maybe Gordon will run Yellow Clay and he could be the class angle.
He was available at mid teen prices on the exchange whilst all the faff was going on yesterday.
Yes I can see him changing his mind re TYC and May want him in the AB now after this weekend!!. The owners do have Wingmen though so may want them split?
Is The Big Westener being a bit forgotten about in all this? HDB will have her absolutely spot on for Cheltenham as he does with all his horses. The Yellow Clay does look good I agree, but I’m not so sure Elliott will move TYC as it then leave Wingmen in limbo. On a line through Mozzies Sister it puts Wingmen close to The Big Westener as well (I know it’s not an exact science).
Thought the RPR's were quite interesting from Kopek's race compared to Ballyburn's the year before.
Top 5 in Kopek's
153
131 Karniquet
122
117
114
Top 5 in Ballyburn's
157
147 Slade Steel
140
137
136
Kind of backs up a few posts I've seen on Twitter that hint the pace of Kopek's race shouldn't have left the field as far back as it did. However, it would also seem unlikely that all those in behind Kopek who were paddling coming round the bend underperformed. Not sure what to make of it really.
I think it is very easy to get caught up in recency bias. My gut feeling is that Salvator will make Kopek earn the Supreme come March.
Would love it if willie’s comments yesterday were just a massive case of recency bias and as he looks out to the gallop this morning and see’s Mundi pulverising his other work horse, doing handstands he thinks there’s no way I could run kopek in the supreme
The markets are always the best guide to these things and with Salvator Mundi being a solid 3/1 shot yesterday morning it was clear he was their #1 Supreme horse, either the performance of Kopek des Bordes has gjven Mullins an immediate change of mind or much of what was said post race was emotion and less considered than it should have been.
The other element to consider is Final Demand, backed into favouritism for the A Bartlett (on exchange) last week, yet Mullins said in interview that race was never on his mind.
I’m not so sure.
Could yet be a twist or two here…
Very good post jrjr. Sometimes we definitely don't see the bigger picture and do get carried away (me especially).
Apparently Lossiemouth was 25 lengths clear of Kopek (races side by side) at the point she fell which if true really does put the two races into perspective.
The Yellow Clay at 5/1 NRNB looks a nice bet for the Bartlett now. I know some are on at fancy prices, but I missed the boat. It looks a very weak division now that the market principles look to be heading elsewhere. He must be 12lb clear of anything else on ratings (other than Jet Blue).
As the only obvious class angle into the race, I could see him being very popular on the preview circuits and going off 5/2.
NRNB is important ad Gordon has nominated him for elsewhere, but it wouldn’t be unlike Gordon to change his mind, and fairly so given what we’ve just seen.
I’ve also been having a go at Jet Blue on BFX at around 16-17. Another with obvious credentials including course form and form that was boosted to an extent in the River Don. A confirmed target too.
His form matches up quite closely with Final Demands in terms of horses beaten and lengths
I'd definitely be looking at him still at 6/1 NRNB for the Turners as well - he's clear of Wingmen regardless
...and I have played in both races - obviously would fancy him in either, with the latter potentially 'easier'
Is The Big Westener being a bit forgotten about in all this? HDB will have her absolutely spot on for Cheltenham as he does with all his horses. The Yellow Clay does look good I agree, but I’m not so sure Elliott will move TYC as it then leave Wingmen in limbo. On a line through Mozzies Sister it puts Wingmen close to The Big Westener as well (I know it’s not an exact science).
Not forgotten for me, if I had to pick a bet at current prices, she'd be it
The markets are always the best guide to these things and with Salvator Mundi being a solid 3/1 shot yesterday morning it was clear he was their #1 Supreme horse, either the performance of Kopek des Bordes has gjven Mullins an immediate change of mind or much of what was said post race was emotion and less considered than it should have been.
The other element to consider is Final Demand, backed into favouritism for the A Bartlett (on exchange) last week, yet Mullins said in interview that race was never on his mind.
I’m not so sure.
Could yet be a twist or two here…
Completely agree about the "never dreaming of it" it point. Willie wouldn't have run him over 2m5f on debut at Limerick and then in the 2m6f Grade One if he didn't even consider it. How many Ballymore winners would've done so running over their shortest distance to date? I don't know, but it can't be many. Most come in with 2 mile form. That being said, I do think Willie was categoric yesterday and he will run in the Ballymore.
JackieMoon33 What did you think of Final Demand? Do we genuinely have a horse that could win a Bartlett or Ballymore? Or are you against Final Demand on this basis?
Was working all weekend so was a case of catching up with the racing each night for me
Obvious to most now that Kopek will be Supreme bound, the run yesterday didn't scream of a horse that needed another 5furlongs, he's still keen enough in his races and bar blowing his lid pre race to an extreme amount, I can't see him beaten.
Like many, I was impressed hugely with Final Demand also, but at the same time, he didn't look to possess a potent turn of foot usually needed to win a Ballymore and I'd be lukewarm on his chances in that race (at the prices now at least). Fair play to those on at prices with him for the Turners they've got a good run for their money though!
The markets are always the best guide to these things and with Salvator Mundi being a solid 3/1 shot yesterday morning it was clear he was their #1 Supreme horse, either the performance of Kopek des Bordes has gjven Mullins an immediate change of mind or much of what was said post race was emotion and less considered than it should have been.
The other element to consider is Final Demand, backed into favouritism for the A Bartlett (on exchange) last week, yet Mullins said in interview that race was never on his mind.
I’m not so sure.
Could yet be a twist or two here…
You need to read this back. I did it - at least twice.
It makes no sense whatsoever.
The markets are always the best guide ?
If this is true, which markets are the best guide ?
Last weeks ?
Or todays ?
Mundi was a "favourite" because he won a grade 2 trial, and there had been nothing else from Mullins, other than maiden winners. Then the UK horses ? and an Elliott grade 1 winner that had been beaten on his previous start.
He wasn't solid in a million years IMO, and the weekend just proved it.
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