2025 Novice Hurdlers

[jrjr]

Been reading/watching some of the bits from the Closutton day and my overriding takeaway is one of a quiet, but definite, confidence. No hint of doubt or panic, just a belief the horses will deliver when it matters.

I put this in another post but the way this season has unfolded with SM’s delay and the low key Xmas for WPM, combined with the New Lion and Potter’s Charm attracting market favour has presented punters with an unusual opportunity to get Willie’s big guns onside in whatever manner they’ve wanted to do so (singles/multis etc).

My personal opinion is that TNL and Potters are both overrated and have propped the Turners market up for the Irish. Got a feeling we will look back on the Supreme and Turners and wonder how on earth those horses were double figures for so long.

Regarding the Triumph, interstate to hear Willie say Sainte Lucie was only half ready at Xmas and how surprising the run was. Bodes well if accurate.

[Lobos]

TNO = The New One?

Yep.....

[Speedy17]

I'm of the opinion TNL is getting quite a few stones thrown at him for two reasons...

1) Not many have backed him ante post
2) Everyone disregarding the Challow because of it's record going on to Cheltenham

You can bring the horses ratings in that he beat in the Challow in to the equation, but if this is a substandard year for novices, which it looks so far, then trust your eyes, he won a grade one on the billy idol.

And he's gonna absolutely bolt up in the Turners, goarn the Lion!!!

[opatcho]

TNL - concerned he was peaked for the Challow
Also, I don’t really know how much he had left in the tank at the end, in his previous race he looked like he was tanking, harry asked and he hardly pulled away

Additionally, for those wanting to back him, better to wait until the DRF as 1st and 2nd place are likely going to change the market. Not sure whether TNL goes out in price but why place a bet now when you can wait, see what Ireland has and make an decision after seeing all of the likely runners

[Kevloaf]

I'm of the opinion TNL is getting quite a few stones thrown at him for two reasons...

1) Not many have backed him ante post
2) Everyone disregarding the Challow because of it's record going on to Cheltenham

You can bring the horses ratings in that he beat in the Challow in to the equation, but if this is a substandard year for novices, which it looks so far, then trust your eyes, he won a grade one on the billy idol.

And he's gonna absolutely bolt up in the Turners, goarn the Lion!!!

I actually really, really like him at the moment

The price is silly so he won't gain any fans at all



Skelton last year felt like a bit of a shift and I think he's going to over perform again (or maybe perform as expected) but he's going to be a factor in these major races and it takes time for the punters to catch up


Only this weekend his not so fancied horse turned over Kargese .... people (like us) back these Mullins horses before they run now, they shorten and it's not really good for anyone


If we're lucky, he drifts when the irish horses (rightly) get backed ....but I thought The New Lion looked way, way clear of any other UK horse I've seen this season

[Carnage at Taunton]

I think there’s enough evidence to suggest that for a few years it’s probably been fairly easy to get winners in certain races eg just back Mullins horses early doors and one will prevail
Then when the apple cart gets upset the toys are thrown .

Like how dare the new lion, Lulamba etc come along and spoil our fun??!!!

Not meant to upset, just seems the case imo.

[Runragged]

....but I thought The New Lion looked way, way clear of any other UK horse I've seen this season

Until this weekend when the Potter absolutely smashes up. Then it will be TNL going to the Supreme to avoid the best British novice hurdler around! All this talk of Kopek and Kaid is irrelevant, it should be TNL and PC!

[Lobos]

Until this weekend when the Potter absolutely smashes up. Then it will be TNL going to the Supreme to avoid the best British novice hurdler around! All this talk of Kopek and Kaid is irrelevant, it should be TNL and PC!

Didn't they say Potter is going straight there or am I mixing him up with someone else ?

[DenmanSacre]

Didn't they say Potter is going straight there or am I mixing him up with someone else ?

Yep... Until they decided he was bored in his stable and will run again this weekend.

[Speedy17]

Until this weekend when the Potter absolutely smashes up. Then it will be TNL going to the Supreme to avoid the best British novice hurdler around! All this talk of Kopek and Kaid is irrelevant, it should be TNL and PC!

I like Potters, if Bill Joyce runs he will be a fair barometer to compare PC and TNL, if he doesn't though I think Potters could win nicely and not actually shorten that much in the market. I'm a TNL man ATM though, and think there's about a 1% chance he ends up in a Supreme.

[Kevloaf]

Ah see now with Potters....if they couldn't win with The New One, they ain't winning with this donkey

Next you'll be telling me to back Jonjo horses

[DenmanSacre]

I hope we get most of them turn up for the grade 2 at Cheltenham as that's as good a novice grade 2 you'll get in Britain. The longer straight will suit Potters Charm but he'll need to be on form to beat some of these convincingly.

[Kevloaf]

Yep... Until they decided he was bored in his stable and will run again this weekend.

Doing that cos it's the only chance he has of winning a race



NTD should not have any horses at single figures for a festival race

Neither should STD


They are the facts.

[DenmanSacre]

Doing that cos it's the only chance he has of winning a race



NTD should not have any horses at single figures for a festival race

Neither should STD


They are the facts.

He was my early Albert Bartlett pick from last season's bumpers. More pace than I thought he had but I don't think he'll be quite good enough for a Turners. Could be a force in the British novice chases though next season.

[Kevloaf]

He was my early Albert Bartlett pick from last season's bumpers. More pace than I thought he had but I don't think he'll be quite good enough for a Turners. Could be a force in the British novice chases though next season.

Just with Valgrand dragging that form down I can't get on board, but respect the pick - if he was a big price I wouldn't be so quick to over look him

Just an easy one ante post to not have to consider for me personally, as of now anyway...