2025 Novice Hurdlers

[Odin]

In what way Odin?

Put TNL into supreme and Kaid into the Turners?

Yeah exactly that.

I've taken cover on the Kaid DRF, TNL Supreme double just in case. It's probably a little bit of negativity/anxiety from me rather than anything there, but if you know you can beat one of the main contenders (Kopek), it does kind of make sense to take him on again if you're JP, particularly given how good TNL's cruising speed/professionalism looks compared to Salvator.

I think Kopek will beat Kaid and so this won't matter, but that is based solely on what's been said and reading between the lines of what's been said about Kopek. Kaid has been considerably better on track over hurdles imo

[darlojim]

Yeah exactly that.

I've taken cover on the Kaid DRF, TNL Supreme double just in case. It's probably a little bit of negativity/anxiety from me rather than anything there, but if you know you can beat one of the main contenders (Kopek), it does kind of make sense to take him on again if you're JP, particularly given how good TNL's cruising speed/professionalism looks compared to Salvator.

I think Kopek will beat Kaid and so this won't matter, but that is based solely on what's been said and reading between the lines of what's been said about Kopek. Kaid has been considerably better on track over hurdles imo

Personally don't think that will happen, as Willie could have Kawa or Kel for the longer nov race for JP also so could make sense for JP to have a strong one in either race, with willie/jp to have some EW horses for the Turners for JP too..

[ComplyOrDie]

Yeah I've ended up making a right mess with Romeo myself.

Liked him last season and he was last leg of 350/1 roll up for the Supreme, but then when he flopped in the Royal Bond and the step up in trip talk came about I cashed it for a 16/1 winner.

Now he's looked good over 2m again, I'm unsure what to do with him :/

FOMO creeping in

[darlojim]

FOMO creeping in

and to make it worse, it's self FOMO

[Odin]

Personally don't think that will happen, as Willie could have Kawa or Kel for the longer nov race for JP also so could make sense for JP to have a strong one in either race, with willie/jp to have some EW horses for the Turners for JP too..

I'll be happy if you're right, I'm sitting on some very healthy bets for Kaid Supreme, but it's a logical play for me that if you know you can beat what is likely to be the main opposition (on "inside" knowledge rather than track knowledge), it's worth considering taking them on again and going Turners, while moving TNL to Supreme. A lot will depend on the manner of the race though

[Faugheen_Machine]

Where does Kaid go if Kopek beats him in the DRF?

A win for Kopek probably guarantees him going to the Turners, but I'm not sure where that'd leave Kaid D.

Is Kaid D'Authie (Supreme) and Kopek Des Bordes (Turners) a double that anyone has done? It's 164/1 with B365.

[Quevega]

Where does Kaid go if Kopek beats him in the DRF?

A win for Kopek probably guarantees him going to the Turners, but I'm not sure where that'd leave Kaid D.

Is Kaid D'Authie (Supreme) and Kopek Des Bordes (Turners) a double that anyone has done? It's 164/1 with B365.

I've done that one with PP other week, exact same price.

[Mighty]

Where does Kaid go if Kopek beats him in the DRF?

A win for Kopek probably guarantees him going to the Turners, but I'm not sure where that'd leave Kaid D.

Is Kaid D'Authie (Supreme) and Kopek Des Bordes (Turners) a double that anyone has done? It's 164/1 with B365.

I’d actually done it the other way around - Kopek Supreme, Kaid Turners, on the basis that if Kopek does win impressively he may well go Supreme? I know Kaid was hanging on a bit in his maiden, but I wasn’t sure if that was because he needed the run and may end up in the Turners.

[darlojim]

Where does Kaid go if Kopek beats him in the DRF?

A win for Kopek probably guarantees him going to the Turners, but I'm not sure where that'd leave Kaid D.

Is Kaid D'Authie (Supreme) and Kopek Des Bordes (Turners) a double that anyone has done? It's 164/1 with B365.

Suppose it depends on the manner of the win, and the make up of the race itself

I feel like there will be a big shake-up though for sure

[Craigy14]

Where does Kaid go if Kopek beats him in the DRF?

A win for Kopek probably guarantees him going to the Turners, but I'm not sure where that'd leave Kaid D.

Is Kaid D'Authie (Supreme) and Kopek Des Bordes (Turners) a double that anyone has done? It's 164/1 with B365.

Aye I’ve played that for cover, before the cuts last week, just small stakes.

If it’s a tight enough affair that’s how I see it playing out. They’ve said Kel Histoire needs further and The New Lion is surely Turners bound so if Kaid isn’t beaten far by Kopek then WPM and even JP’s team would fancy their chances against Mundi et al imo. Given all the chat around Kopek he seems to be viewed at this stage as the number 1 novice, just needs to prove it on the track now.

[darlojim]

I’d actually done it the other way around - Kopek Supreme, Kaid Turners, on the basis that if Kopek does win impressively he may well go Supreme? I know Kaid was hanging on a bit in his maiden, but I wasn’t sure if that was because he needed the run and may end up in the Turners.

I'd highly doubt that with Paul very likely wanting to ride Mundi and Kopek. The only way that could happen imo is if Final demand came out and looked exceptional at the DRF, but with plenty of pace too so that it forces them the Turners route.

[Quevega]

I’d actually done it the other way around - Kopek Supreme, Kaid Turners, on the basis that if Kopek does win impressively he may well go Supreme? I know Kaid was hanging on a bit in his maiden, but I wasn’t sure if that was because he needed the run and may end up in the Turners.

Not sure it would've made much difference but it was a very long run in for a horse that had led for so long with the final flight omitted, and Walsh never raised his whip on Kaid, hands and heels and a slap on the neck. Value for more IMO.

[Odin]

Where does Kaid go if Kopek beats him in the DRF?

A win for Kopek probably guarantees him going to the Turners, but I'm not sure where that'd leave Kaid D.

Is Kaid D'Authie (Supreme) and Kopek Des Bordes (Turners) a double that anyone has done? It's 164/1 with B365.

Did the double when they were both 20s at Xmas time. I've had Kaid as the Supreme horse since his price crashed both on debut and after it drifted following his fall. It felt like stable/owner money to go from 50s to 16s for Supreme without running, while his Turners price stayed 33s. I think the only thing that could change him going to the Supreme is if he beats Kopek and even then I'm not sure

[darlojim]

Not sure it would've made much difference but it was a very long run in for a horse that had led for so long with the final flight omitted, and Walsh never raised his whip on Kaid, hands and heels and a slap on the neck. Value for more IMO.

Seriously oozed confidence didn't he?

Knew exactly what was under the bonnet.

[Faugheen_Machine]

I'd highly doubt that with Paul very likely wanting to ride Mundi and Kopek. The only way that could happen imo is if Final demand came out and looked exceptional at the DRF, but with plenty of pace too so that it forces them the Turners route.

Yeh, I struggle to see Mundi and Kopek line up in the same race if they both make it in one piece.

If Final Demand looks exceptional and Kopek disappoints, it'd be more likely that Kopek doesn't travel imo.