2025 Novice Hurdlers

[Quevega]

Not sure they ran at a crawl over Christmas, if I remember correctly whinney hill took off at the start and KDB followed, really hope Kopek can jump better at the DRF I’d be in his camp for that and the turners

5 races ran over 2 miles that day at leopardstown, including the bumper green splendour won.
All five races times ranged between 3m 52s and 3m 55s

Kopek 11/7
Workahead 11/12
Hello Neighbour 11
Green Splendour 11/10

and a wanky handicapper carrying 10/7

Top 4 all well fancied.
Not sure what it tells us except Kopek lost about 10 seconds diving at fences.

Pretty sure it's not evidence it was ran at a crawl though, so backs up what you've said.

[Atlantic Viking]

and a wanky handicapper

I desperately need to grow up given how much this made me chuckle but please never change.

[DenmanSacre]

Jamess Gate done well to win that after the buckle after the last. Lovely horse.

[EnvoiAlien]

I’ll roll out the same line I always use, these maidens are run at a crawl and that’s when you get jumping issues, get a decent pace they concentrate and settle better, jumping improves.
DRF will tell us plenty….

Problem with this is when you're schooling them you go very steady to start with, only when they're clearing them clean do you start stepping up the speed into the obstacles, so they're all very used to jumping slowly, probably more so than at speed as once they're jumping well at pace you start entering them.
Between races you'd have them jump but it's not really considered schooling at that point, just keeping their eye in if you like.

[darlojim]

Jamess Gate done well to win that after the buckle after the last. Lovely horse.

For a horse that is very lucky to still be here, was touch and go with him, and heart in the mouth stuff at the last I thought he'd gone wrong on landing.

For people thinking hcap, maybe a win there wasn't ideal?
Could have been a low key effort followed by a winning 5th run :/ unless they put him somewhere deep end next.

[Eggs]

For a horse that is very lucky to still be here, was touch and go with him, and heart in the mouth stuff at the last I thought he'd gone wrong on landing.

For people thinking hcap, maybe a win there wasn't ideal?
Could have been a low key effort followed by a winning 5th run :/ unless they put him somewhere deep end next.

….Saxon really highlights that race and that horse in his planner today, hinting he needs to go up a few pounds. Given a big haircut for County and Coral after that.

[DenmanSacre]

For a horse that is very lucky to still be here, was touch and go with him, and heart in the mouth stuff at the last I thought he'd gone wrong on landing.

For people thinking hcap, maybe a win there wasn't ideal?
Could have been a low key effort followed by a winning 5th run :/ unless they put him somewhere deep end next.

Yeah I thought the worst as he buckled. Ran on well and got back up to speed quickly. Hopefully comes out of it well.

Obviously needs another run for Cheltenham but he looks graded class at novice level to me. Travels with so much ease so might be difficult to hide in another small field novice race.

Not sure he'll get too much for it. 3 pounds conceded by Cest Ta Chance. Taponthego is rated 127. British handicapper might think differently anyway

[darlojim]

….Saxon really highlights that race and that horse in his planner today, hinting he needs to go up a few pounds. Given a big haircut for County and Coral after that.

Ohh he'll get a few lbs for that dont worry
Be interesting to see where they go next with him

[Saxon Warrior]

Not sure he'll get too much for it. 3 pounds conceded by Cest Ta Chance. Taponthego is rated 127. British handicapper might think differently anyway

Shrewdies like Gordon and Gavin use Rated races to get Handicap marks known without entering into hcaps.

Theyre the equivalent of 120-135 limited band, small field, hcaps, in reality.

The race conditions always make interesting reading.

Trainers lining up one for a future handicap, know, generally, if they win one they aren't going to get a punishing mark (unless they bolt up).

James's Gate Won by 3/4L from a horse carrying 3lbs more (the mark for the rated race implies he beat a 130 horse 3/4L, when running off a mark of 127.

So he won't go up much for that.

Thats the general idea, Brassil/Mulryan will know that well enough.

Even if he got 5lbs and a 132 Irish mark, that's no worry.

Should he get Festival Handicap entries then theres no collateral hurdles form as yet that suggests he should get whacked by the GB capper.

The 3rd and 4th in his last win have both won since, (as has he now) so the form is solid, but we're not talking Graded race type of Hcap marks for any of that form, just yet.

He needs one more run, to even bother to enter a Cheltenham Handicap though, so they better wheel him out again in the next 3 or 4 weeks, and then that race will help assess his IRE and GB mark further.

Maybe he'll even get a GB entry in the next week.
Hence the need for us to have him in a tracker.

There's never much outside of Graded novice races for a horse like him to run in, in Ireland.

So he'd probably run in a Graded NovH or into an open HcapH if he ran over there.

Over in GB, probably could find a winners NovH under a penalty, or a Listed NovH or a HcapH.

Looking at the Irish Race Calendar, and assuming he
● moves to around a 132/133 mark,
● runs over 2M-2M4F in the next month
● has time to recover, and also be entered for Cheltenham with the minimum 5 runs before early entries on Tuesday 18th Feb...

the Irish options are

Sun 2nd Feb (DRF)
2M Listed (0-150) Hcap
Got an entry for this on Weds, Weights should be Monday coming.
He could run back quickly if they wished
This is the race Gaelic Warrior won as a Novice before a 2nd in the Ballymore.


6th Feb
Thurles
2M4F Rated NovH (5yo+)
Rated 135 or less
121-135 carry a 1lb per point penalty, from those at 120 (and under) who carry level weights

15th Feb
Gowran
2M Grade 3 Red Mills Trial Hurdle
an open Grade 3 though, so may not suit.

16th Feb
Punchestown
2M Listed NovH
(Winners of 2 Hurdles can run as long as they're not Listed/Graded wins)
This is the race Tullyhill won last year, that catapulted him into Supreme antepost fav.

Other than those 4 options, there's nothing else for him now, in Ireland, between today and when Cheltenham Handicap Early Entries take place on Feb 18th

So I'd say he could go with option 1, 2 or 4 above (marked in red).
OR
Come to GB for an alternate
OR
not get the Festival Hcap Entries we think he could, and go for the Turners Grade 1 instead

They've got a window of time to sort it out and give him the right race to run in, that gives him

● sufficient recovery time,
● for him to be ready for him to run the race they want him too, and
● to still be able to peak for a Cheltenham Hcap

A fine balancing act required for that.

[Quevega]

He’d have a right chance in the Betfair hurdle
doubt they’d enter though

[Eggs]

Anno Power.....

The trainer said: "She did well in the circumstances at Sandown to get up to win, but she wasn't 100 per cent after the race, that's why we haven't seen her since. She's all good now and will run this weekend. It's a step up in grade, but we'll get more of a pointer as we look towards spring targets.
"Love Envoi won it en route to winning the mares' novice hurdle so we know it's a good stepping stone, although you'd imagine there will be some good mares in the race. The way our season has gone means there's a lot resting on the weekend."

….if the plan was to run her today, I can only assume they’re still not happy with her.

[Lobos]

….if the plan was to run her today, I can only assume they’re still not happy with her.

Yep, be good to have some news why they pulled her. At least his horses are back in some sort of form.

[Runragged]

Can't recall the exact wording but I was happy when Ruby mentioned Kopek had been jumping much better this week with Townend on top.

He also said he had schooled well before his debut and that went to pot in the race!

[EnvoiAlien]

Was just wondering, with Palladium entered in a maiden hurdle for 4yo and upwards, if he wins & wins handy, whats the chances Henderson looks at the Supreme for him ?
As a 4yo he'd get 10lbs from the rest of them, he doesn't seem to have anything for the race currently and if this one turns out to be nice, would he want to run his two best 4yos against each other in the Triumph ?
Just was thinking about it earlier as see some books had him priced up for the SNH is all and for me, the race still looks open, the DRF might change that but for now..

[Zachx02]

Was just wondering, with Palladium entered in a maiden hurdle for 4yo and upwards, if he wins & wins handy, whats the chances Henderson looks at the Supreme for him ?
As a 4yo he'd get 10lbs from the rest of them, he doesn't seem to have anything for the race currently and if this one turns out to be nice, would he want to run his two best 4yos against each other in the Triumph ?
Just was thinking about it earlier as see some books had him priced up for the SNH is all and for me, the race still looks open, the DRF might change that but for now..

Wouldn't put it beyond him to be fair, as he's going to be a stallion prospect that would do a lot for his profile