2025 Novice Hurdlers

[Lobos]

Could be a bonanza stats buster Festival with a 5yo winning the Arkle, Willie winning a handicap chase, Mundi winning the opener in headgear, Challow winner winning the Ballymore...........

[Leman14]

Sounds like a Lucky 15......

[archie]

Sounds like a Lucky 15......

Ah, but I've not had a Cheltenham L15 come up since 1985.

Always look for reasons behind stats. In this case it's because I haven't had a Cheltenham L15 since 1985.

[Zachx02]

I think the RP has changed mundis RPR for the maiden hurdle in may to 146 from 135

[DenmanSacre]

I think the RP has changed mundis RPR for the maiden hurdle in may to 146 from 135

Classic. Only 8 months for them to realise their original figure was shit.

[Quevega]

I think the RP has changed mundis RPR for the maiden hurdle in may to 146 from 135

Yeah and his moscow flyer now 138.
Fucking pissing about if you ask me.
I'd love someone from the racing post explain the reasoning behind the tipperary change.

[darlojim]

Who cares about RPR's

Its literally 1 persons opinion.

[DenmanSacre]

Yeah and his moscow flyer now 138.
Fucking pissing about if you ask me.
I'd love someone from the racing post explain the reasoning behind the tipperary change.

They don't want a potential winner of the Supreme to turn up with a crap RPR. They've put him close enough to Romeo where they can say he's improved a few pounds instead of a stone plus if he wins.

[Quevega]

They don't want a potential winner of the Supreme to turn up with a crap RPR. They've put him close enough to Romeo where they can say he's improved a few pounds instead of a stone plus if he wins.

You mean like it's all smoke and mirrors and the most important thing is for their ratings to look good to the paying customers
Fucking no chance of that

RPR's are for mugs, it's official.

[DenmanSacre]

Agree and made the point about Regent's Stroll a couple of times now DenmanSacre

He's a huge price! 100/1 means he is potentially big rewards for little risk too.

https://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/regents-stroll-to-drop-back-to-two-miles-for-next-start/223080

At least Nicholls has the same thought.

[Leman14]

Ah, but I've not had a Cheltenham L15 come up since 1985.

Always look for reasons behind stats. In this case it's because I haven't had a Cheltenham L15 since 1985.

And needing to find THE Mullins Handicap Chaser that's going to win......

[Exar Essay]

And needing to find THE Mullins Handicap Chaser that's going to win......

Sa Majeste ...

[Benjy23]

Ballyburn...

[Runragged]

Unusually for me I have read a lot of the reports before I have seen the Salvator race. To clarify I have not backed him as a single as I questioned how much he would improve and stubbornly refused to then bet him when the juvenile form from last year was proving decent.

My take though was that it was a good performance. He was keen early, his hurdling didn't seem as bad as was made out and he got outpaced to begin when the sprint for home began. Stayed on pretty strongly in the ground so considering was conceding a run beforehand then it was a pleasing display. However, it is easy to crab the form, just 3 3/4 lengths separated the first 4 home whilst the runner up was hampered when trying to make his move. He can't be that keen either in a Supreme which arguably has the biggest atmosphere on course being the first race of the Festival. How will he get on in the prelims and going down to the start, let alone there is usually a good sprint to the first hurdle? Interesting his maiden 'walkover' got made up to an RPR of 146, putting him at least in the ballpark of previous winners and a boost to those of us who follow trends like these. What is clear is that we still don't have a standout winner and a lot will depend on what happens on the day as to who wins. If you are a backer and at bigger prices then you are delighted he is out and winning despite things against him. If you have left him for now then there is still enough doubts that isn't getting me rushing out to bet him yet.

As a betting prospect anyway then I don't think there is as much between Kel Histoire and Salvator Mundi as the betting suggests. Just like SM. KH was taking a long while to pick up in the ground. To get squeezed up like he was approaching the last, regroup then stay on past the other pair was a good effort. Don't think the sprint finish suited him and would be much better served with an end to end gallop. 25/1 is fair considering it was only his 3rd start on a race track and second run over hurdles. He would of learnt a lot from that experience. However, I would like to see him have another run before Cheltenham and if declared anywhere I would look to get him on side.

As to numbers, I think there will be a few more than predicted. It's an opportunity again for trainers to get experience into lightly raced horses, either those that have lost their maiden tag, or those still a maiden. Mullins ran 5 in it last year, but only two were a single figure price and one (Supersundae) was still a maiden. I expect he will load up again especially after the dry winter we had and not been able to get as many of his out as he would of liked. The potential open nature of the race again should also ensure we get a double figure field I believe.

[ComplyOrDie]

https://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/regents-stroll-to-drop-back-to-two-miles-for-next-start/223080

At least Nicholls has the same thought.

Lovely stuff.

That 100/1 is still about