2025 Novice Hurdlers

[Craigy14]

I think too much is being made of a second season novice as well imo. Seen something online about it too, almost using it as a negative.

That triumph run was purely an education of Cheltenham and probably the travelling etc included in that. He was one of the last back in training so they didn’t ‘waste’ his novice status winning some crappy juvenile race. Throw him into a Grade 1 to get some experience etc for the following season. I’d be 99.9% certain that was the case, I’m sure most would agree with that and even R4H or Archie could probably confirm that was the case.

Edit - I know he was a novice from his second to Sir Gino, but feels the triumph run is being used as the tool to beat him with as well, where it was purely an education.

[Istabraq]

I think too much is being made of a second season novice as well imo. Seen something online about it too, almost using it as a negative.

That triumph run was purely an education of Cheltenham and probably the travelling etc included in that. He was one of the last back in training so they didn’t ‘waste’ his novice status winning some crappy juvenile race. Throw him into a Grade 1 to get some experience etc for the following season. I’d be 99.9% certain that was the case, I’m sure most would agree with that and even R4H or Archie could probably confirm that was the case.

I think you’ll get more and more of this approach, perhaps to prolong the career.
I know/knew someone very close to the Donnelly’s and got told a year ago they have a bunch of new purchases for next (this) year, may well be a trend….

[Atlantic Viking]

Also on SM at decent prices like most but feels a little like Jeriko du Reponet last year, your heart/pocket still (chooses to) believe but your eyes and head are screaming out for you to finally learn this particular lesson. Naturally I'm sticking firmly with the former.

[ComplyOrDie]

As long as something goes along at a decent pace then he should be fine to go away at his own pace and this should help his jumping. It's just whether he's actually good enough after that, which in my opinion is open to question, so his price looks low enough right now.

The 2 mile race in Dublin is normally a much stronger race and usually provides more solid form.
Kaid is the most likely winner of that and then to front run in the supreme - but could get beat at Dublin.
He's also prone to throwing in an extra stride also. But looks to have more scope over a hurdle than Salvator based on this year's evidence.

I had Kel at 66's and cashed for money back yesterday.

Yeah, he needs it to be run true, but Willie could set that up, for sure, maybe use Kaid, like you say.

I don't think Kaid is the most likely winner for the race at Dublin, I agree with R4H about Kopek.

[DenmanSacre]

Think Headgear refers to Blinkers / Hood / Cheekpieces rather than tongue tie.

And as for Mystical....he didn't win - we're not here for runners up!!

Tongue Tie is headgear though. The point about Mystical Power was that both had headgear last year. How many runners have ran in the Supreme over the last 10 years say with headgear and what were their winning chance percentages combined? Would you expect in that time for their to be 1,2,3 etc winners compared to the 1 actual winner? Unless you've got underlying data to show that a significant number have worn headgear and had a significant chance of winning (say 3 expected wins in 10 years for those wearing headgear) then the stat may as well be no horse has won that was born on a full moon. Each horse should be taken on his own merit as well - not sure SM is going to lose this just because other horses in previous years have lost wearing headgear.

[Quevega]

Tongue Tie is headgear though. The point about Mystical Power was that both had headgear last year. How many runners have ran in the Supreme over the last 10 years say with headgear and what were their winning chance percentages combined? Would you expect in that time for their to be 1,2,3 etc winners compared to the 1 actual winner? Unless you've got underlying data to show that a significant number have worn headgear and had a significant chance of winning (say 3 expected wins in 10 years for those wearing headgear) then the stat may as well be no horse has won that was born on a full moon. Each horse should be taken on his own merit as well - not sure SM is going to lose this just because other horses in previous years have lost wearing headgear.

Without the fine details like you've suggested - that would flesh out the stat as being more or less meaningful/less.

There is a basic logical reason why this stat might have some merit.

The more tractable and straightforward and adaptable a horse is the less likelihood there is of failure and excuses.

If you assume 2 horses of the exact same ability, and exact same price - but one has quirks, then the bet is always going to be for the one without quirks.

[Run4Home]

https://x.com/i/status/1878786458854551738

Decent summary from PM

[DenmanSacre]

Without the fine details like you've suggested - that would flesh out the stat as being more or less meaningful/less.

There is a basic logical reason why this stat might have some merit.

The more tractable and straightforward and adaptable a horse is the less likelihood there is of failure and excuses.

If you assume 2 horses of the exact same ability, and exact same price - but one has quirks, then the bet is always going to be for the one without quirks.

But then you've got the stat for the Ultima where those with headgear win it a lot. The obvious answer is that most of the runners in it near the head of the market each year have worn some form of headgear and so you'd expect them to win it a load. Most of the runners in the race over the last few years wear one piece of headgear I think. Would a horse not wearing headgear automatically mean I remove them from the shortlist? Not for me but I assume others would.

Stats and trends can be a good way of reducing down a field, if you use ones that are fairly logical. But the headgear stats is one I'd personally ignore when whittling down a field.

This biggest question mark about the headgear is that it didn't settle him on Sunday and that's what I'd be looking at, whether the horse was with or without headgear. In the Triumph and at Tipperary he was ok but at Tipperary he was allowed to go from the front. Just need to decide whether it was freshness or him being a git on Sunday.

[Quevega]

But then you've got the stat for the Ultima where those with headgear win it a lot. The obvious answer is that most of the runners in it near the head of the market each year have worn some form of headgear and so you'd expect them to win it a load. Most of the runners in the race over the last few years wear one piece of headgear I think. Would a horse not wearing headgear automatically mean I remove them from the shortlist? Not for me but I assume others would.

Stats and trends can be a good way of reducing down a field, if you use ones that are fairly logical. But the headgear stats is one I'd personally ignore when whittling down a field.

This biggest question mark about the headgear is that it didn't settle him on Sunday and that's what I'd be looking at, whether the horse was with or without headgear. In the Triumph and at Tipperary he was ok but at Tipperary he was allowed to go from the front. Just need to decide whether it was freshness or him being a git on Sunday.

I agree, I'd never take headgear into account as a stat.
But I can see the logic in it, for younger horses in particular.

Most handicappers fuck about with headgear, as it's a handy excuse for performance for trainers when it suits, one way or the other.

And the last point is completely sound. The issue with headgear (on the whole) is there is no way of knowing if they have any effect at all. Never mind the degree of benefit they provide.

[Istabraq]

But then you've got the stat for the Ultima where those with headgear win it a lot. The obvious answer is that most of the runners in it near the head of the market each year have worn some form of headgear and so you'd expect them to win it a load. Most of the runners in the race over the last few years wear one piece of headgear I think. Would a horse not wearing headgear automatically mean I remove them from the shortlist? Not for me but I assume others would.
.

Was the Ultima trend not first time headgear ?
I seem to remember that being a thing…

[archie]

The headgear argument is academic. Flown wore blinkers in 1992 and won by 10l so there's no point in picking that as a start date.

[Quevega]

The headgear argument is academic. Flown wore blinkers in 1992 and won by 10l.

The irony in that is magnificent.

I say fuck the age stats also. Beau Caprice won in 1966 aged 12.

[DenmanSacre]

Was the Ultima trend not first time headgear ?
I seem to remember that being a thing…

I can't remember.

Had a look on Gault Stats - Nine of the last 13 winners wore some sort of headgear. Three others were novices.

[Rooster Booster]

Yes punters have a love hate relationship with stats . They love the ones that confirm they are right and hate the ones that think they’re a twat.

[archie]

The irony in that is magnificent.

I say fuck the age stats also. Beau Caprice won in 1966 aged 12.

Yeah, I read the original statement and by the time I'd read the rest I'd forgotten the 'since' qualification. Better change it.