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Originally posted by Benjy23
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Was on 365 but didn't last the night it seems -
Did Kel really 'disappoint'? If Salvator Mundi is the rightful fav for the Supreme because we all accept the race wasn't run to suit, then he's also ran in a race that probably didn't suit, got chopped off by the winner before the last and stayed on again to be beaten only a few lengths by the horse that is current clear favourite for the race. Considering he is less experienced than the winner, I doubt they will be giving up on being able to finish a bit closer next time just yet.Originally posted by Arkle View PostComment
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137 RPR mundiComment
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On this basis shouldn't be fav, has a horse rated this low won the Supreme before?Originally posted by Quevega View PostComment
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No.Originally posted by CJW View Post
Although they may revisit the rating as they sometimes do. Like a hindsight rprComment
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Oof. That’s a stats buster if he does go on to win. Average pre race RPR from the last decade is 150, lowest is 143.Originally posted by Quevega View Post
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Even if they bump it to early 140's that's still a big negative for the stats boys.
Mind you, still has him a clear 2nd on ratings in the race currently...Comment
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Regardless of any RPR, We’ve all been told “He Just Wins”.
Thats good enough for me
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The Supreme is typically won by the horse i've spent most of the antepost period opposing, so congrats to this years winner, Romeo Coolio.Comment
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Article on Sportinglife from Patrick on SM.
The interesting bit is that he doesn't think they'll want to lead with him in the Supreme. That's probably where Kaid comes in if he runs well at the DRF.
Comments were
The top amateur rider shares his thoughts
Patrick Mullins has full faith in Salvator Mundi
Patrick Mullins has unwavering faith in Salvator Mundi, who didn't impress everyone with his Sunday success in the Sky Bet Moscow Flyer Novice Hurdle.
The Willie Mullins-trained five-year-old came into Sunday's Punchestown contest with a lofty reputation in light of a runaway maiden success at Tipperary back in May and while he ultimately got the job done, beating Kel Histoire by three lengths in a one-two for the Closutton team, his early keenness and scruffy jumping did not go unnoticed.
The sponsors reacted by cutting Salvator Mundi to 7/2 favourite (from 5/1) for the Sky Bet Supreme Novices' Hurdle at Cheltenham and the trainer's son and assistant still expects the French import to take all the beating in the Festival opener on March 11.
He told Sporting Life: "My faith is definitely undiminished. When he jumped the second-last and Paul (Townend) went down to give him a squeeze I thought it had all gone up in smoke but the way he came back on the bridle and then ran by them like they were standing still, off a slow-run race, it's not easy to do that at Punchestown.
"So it was a huge performance and we're very happy coming out of the race.
"To be honest, after the first half-mile I thought to myself 'well this horse can't win'. He was running too keenly and because Paul was trying to settle him and they were going slow, he couldn't let him jump. Because if he'd let him jump, he'd have made ground in the air, landed running and ran even keener and maybe even ended up in front, with the other horses pushing him on.
"So there's no doubt the ability is there, but his efficiency in racing still needs a bit of tweaking. When he won his maiden in Tipperary, which was quite a controversial race (long way clear from start and won by 62 lengths), you can see how that happened now as if you let him onto the front, he rocks and rolls. He's going to have to learn how to be more professional in his racing in order to maximise his potential."
'His jumping is fine'
Mullins also anticipates a better round of jumping in different circumstances going forward.
He explained: "We're not worried that he's going to jump poorly (at Cheltenham). It was a slowly-run race and Paul was almost using the jumps to try and get him back, get him off the bridle and to take a breath.
"We're happy that in a stronger-run race he'll settle better. He's run around Cheltenham and he's run around Auteuil - his jumping is fine.
"As for tactics in the Supreme, I'm not sure he's the sort of horse who would settle in front. It's a great place to make the running if you can jump the first hurdle and prick your ears and race with a loop in the rein. But if you jump the first hurdle and rock down to the next two - and it's a long run to the second flight - then you could have your race finished with by the time you pass the stands. So I'm not convinced he's a horse to do that with.
"In a strong-run race he'll settle much better. You don't always get that in the Supreme Novices' - sometimes you do and sometimes you don't. He wears the hood, he wears the tongue-strap, he's not straightforward, but Paul Townend is riding out of his skin and I'm sure he'll be well able to devise a plan with him."Comment
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He'd be a massive stats buster - lowest RPR and wearing headgear.Originally posted by Mighty View Post
Quick glance at Gault Stats would make quite all of them at the top of the market trends busters especially with trainer comments suggesting Mundi, Romeo and Workahead will go straight there so no opportunity to improve.
- No Horse wearing any type of Headgear has won since Flown in 1992 - Mundi
- Appreciate It ('21) only winner since 2012 previously beaten in Champion Bumper - Romeo
- 11 of the last 13 had won at least a G2 Novice Hurdle - Workahead / Kaid (DRF)
- Con Hill only winner since 2008 with less than 3 previous hurdle runs - Workahead (2) / Kaid (2 + DRF)
- No second season novice raced their first hurdle season in GB/IRE - Mundi (contentious)
- Labiak only winner in last 12 with BHA rating under 147 - Mundi / Workahead / Kaid (DRF)
- Only Appreciate It of last 16 not 5 or 6 - Workahead (7)
- 8 of the last 11 had won all completed starts that season - Romeo / Workahead
- 16 of last 17 have won at least 2 hurdles races - Workahead / Kaid (DRF)
- 27 of the last 29 run in same calendar year (Altior & Marine Nationale) - Workahead / Romeo
The New Lion would meet all the trends...
Kaid and Kopek have the chance to improve at DRF but both would still only have 2 completed runs.Comment
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That's really interesting. And shows that a good win by Kaid at the DRF would make him by far and away the best bet in respect of stats.Originally posted by chunker86 View PostComment
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Just loving Romeo. Only backed him and mundi for the supreme. Simply don’t fancy anything else. Had my summer romance with mundi last year. Now for a bit of winter coolio topping upComment
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Yeah i suppose the thing I thought was obvious for most the race Paul didn't leave him jump in order to try slow him down. When a horse is that keen he doesn't want to ping or leave him jump as he would have pulled himself to the front, yesterday would have been an education in a good race to settle before the big one. Missing the last few wasn't ideal but i think its just how it played out and the engine would be going low off a layoff so that plays a part, for me personally anyway I wouldn't have any worries with his jumping if I was a backer.Originally posted by archie View Post
As you say its not a yard that schools extensively, quiet simply as schooling = risk, for him. With Mundi I wouldn't expect anything extra as its not an issue, if it was like some others they'd do a bit more.
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The issue I'd have with Patrick's summary of how he races is that his rivals are very likely handicappers and so why would you not let him jump and not let him go as fast as he wants to go (within reason) ? When everyone is saying they were not going any gallop anyhow, so there was room to go quicker at some stage.
If Paul was indeed tugging him back (appeared to be) before every flight (he only jumped the 4th last properly IMO), then that's hardly a good preparation for the horse mentally. And it doesn't excuse the last 2 or 3 flights either, when they were all going quicker.
The habit of taking an extra stride will harm his chances when upped in grade, this is even worse if you're running keen.
The rpr looks fair, especially as Kel Histoire was not falling further back after the last.
But there's plenty of room for improvement.Comment
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