2025 Novice Hurdlers

[Faugheen_Machine]

I’m not saying he can’t win, he can.
But imo he has to jump better than today to do so imo
And that’s basically all I’m really saying

He will jump better and I don't see it as an issue. Sean has summed it up perfectly.

[riccirich]

I've said it before but RPRs for maiden hurdles are a load of rubbish. I know a lot of people on here respect them but I'd trust my own eyes over what the Racing Post says. The RPRs have been pretty good for the Bumper and I do look at them for the Champion bumper and assessing horses at the end of their bumper season but couldn't care less what RPR they're given over jumps.

Laafi would get shit on if he turned up at the DRF. Workahead got a better RPR than them both as well but he'd get punted into touch by Kopek and Kaid as well.

Kaid and Kopek won very strong maidens IMO and won comfortably.

If SM, Kaid and Kopek aren't considered better novice hurdlers than Slade Steel, Mystical Power and Firefox by the end of the season I'll be amazed. Not after timing on those 3 either as I said they were crap last year as well.

How many star novice hurdlers do you actually have at this stage of any season? I can't really think of one. Even with Constitution Hill (who'd won the Tolworth by now), you had people on here thinking Jonbon and Willies were better. Vautour didn't go off favourite at Leopardstown after his Moscow Flyer win. Ballyburn wasn't thought as a star at this point last year. You're not really a star novice until you prove it at Cheltenham or another Spring festival after.

Mystical Powers Moscow Flyer was horrendous - none of those in behind him that day would have been less than 10/1 in today's field and that's being generous.

I'm not saying based on today's performance that SM is going to win the Supreme. But he's the right favourite, and the only ones I think could beat him are in the same stable. Kaid may be good enough as he seems very professional and Kopek has bundles of talent. But the chances of Kopek and Salvator taking each other on this year seems slim to me.

I bet Elliott thinks Romeo is miles better than Relieved of Duties so he'll not be too scared of SM.

I guess we'll only know who's right by the end of the season. But I think we'll end up with 3 proper horses lining up at the head of the market in the Supreme this year.

I don't follow the rprs blindly either myself, it just sort of backed up my impression that kaids and kopeks performances were good but nothing outstanding. They didn't seem too worried about trying to beat kopek with kawaboomga the way he was ridden, and kopek jumped woefully on top of that. Kaid dauthie I like the look of him, but koktail divins form from france doesn't add up to a whole lot, so hard to gauge whether he actually beat anything of note. Both are open to improvement obviously, but my original point was salvator is fave because as of right now there's not much else that could be, rather than him doing much to earn it. Kopek and kaid might be highly rated with potential but as of right now theyve only won maidens by a length or two. And romeo has the best form but getting beat by tounsivator probably makes his profile a bit less sexy to punters.

[Carnage at Taunton]

He will jump better and I don't see it as an issue. Sean has summed it up perfectly.

You are allowed your opinion of course, as am I.
But the horse will show us in March.

[Rooster Booster]

For anyone that doesn’t have time to trawl through pages of post Moscow flyer debate. Many of us stand to win lots of money and are telling anybody with doubts that his jumping will be fine and he will settle great and will win the supreme. If you are really busy and haven’t got an hour or two to spare you just need to trust me

[Faugheen_Machine]

For anyone that doesn’t have time to trawl through pages of post Moscow flyer debate. Many of us stand to win lots of money and are telling anybody with doubts that his jumping will be fine and he will settle great and will win the supreme. If you are really busy and haven’t got an hour or two to spare you just need to trust me

Hahaha. Nicely summed up.

[Carnage at Taunton]

For anyone that doesn’t have time to trawl through pages of post Moscow flyer debate. Many of us stand to win lots of money and are telling anybody with doubts that his jumping will be fine and he will settle great and will win the supreme. If you are really busy and haven’t got an hour or two to spare you just need to trust me

Bit late for me, but I’m sure many will be grateful to you for posting this.

[jrjr]

Good, one I can rule out then. Very rare for anything to win a graded Cheltenham race with no graded experience.

Workahead would be a huge outlier based on Sax’s Supreme stats. No pre-festival RPR of 133 has even placed (1-3) in the last 10 years. Obvious correlation between achieving higher RPR and graded races, which backs up your point.

Henry campaigning a few of his novices quite strangely (in my completely uneducated opinion), both the Big Westerner and Workahead going straight to the festival with just two runs apiece and Koktail Divin just one run so far and no DRF entry.

[FinalFurlong91]

Have decided to part with a few pennies on romeo coolio at 8s on the back of mundis lacklustre performance against a modest field today

That and kopek at 25s supreme and 20s ballymore are the only novice hurdle bets iv had so far

Not been convinced by many of them at all

Very glad iv kept my powder mostly dry

[Carnage at Taunton]

Have decided to part with a few pennies on romeo coolio at 8s on the back of mundis lacklustre performance against a modest field today

That and kopek at 25s supreme and 20s ballymore are the only novice hurdle bets iv had so far

Not been convinced by many of them at all

Very glad iv kept my powder mostly dry

Don’t blame you at all
I would do the same if I hadn’t already backed him, although I may go in again at some stage.
Hes put in the best performance thus far imo.

[SeanRock]

Have decided to part with a few pennies on romeo coolio at 8s on the back of mundis lacklustre performance against a modest field today

That and kopek at 25s supreme and 20s ballymore are the only novice hurdle bets iv had so far

Not been convinced by many of them at all

Very glad iv kept my powder mostly dry

Romeo Coolio got caught out in a similarly falsely ran race like today’s in the Royal Bond. The Supreme does look devoid of any dept though so it’s definitely a market worth taking a stance on now. I’d say the Supreme & Mares Novice Hurdles both look light on class at the moment.

Quietly confident with Sixandahalf & Mundi ticking boxes for me this weekend.

[DenmanSacre]

Romeo Coolio got caught out in a similarly falsely ran race like today’s in the Royal Bond. The Supreme does look devoid of any dept though so it’s definitely a market worth taking a stance on now. I’d say the Supreme & Mares Novice Hurdles both look light on class at the moment.

Quietly confident with Sixandahalf & Mundi ticking boxes for me this weekend.

That's one issue with Romeo. Slow race and he got beat by a poor horse. Mundi showed he can win off the slow early gallop despite him acting up and jumping poorly. Romeo showed he couldn't do that in what was IMO a poorer race.

But the Supreme won't be slow as Sam/Jack will want to get on with it on Romeo, Mark will want to be up there with Kaid if he goes and I don't think Paul will be waiting around either on SM.

With the likely strong pace, I think Nicholls should be putting Regent Stroll in it. Instead of trying to get him to settle over a trip, let him follow the strong pace. But Paul has a knack of training the speed out of all his.

Who else is there:

Workahead - not for me. Won the maiden well but I don't like William Munny or Redemption Day and I don't think he'll have the class to win an average or better Supreme.

Laafi - been mentioned but couldn't have him at all.

Kopek won't go unless they really fail to get him to settle but i think he's the Turners horse.

Kel Histoire I think needs to go up to the Turners but I liked his performance today. Lacked that gear to stop Paul getting in the pocket but picked up well after coming to a near enough stand still

Ballygunner Castle - not good enough

Royal Infantry - doubt he's good enough.

Bleu de Vassy - not good enough

Casheldale Lad mentioned here but Elliott knows Romeos a better horse than him so I wouldn't give him a chance.

Goraibhmaithagat I liked but no idea if they'll even bother going. Might have an easy enough campaign this year.

Lots more in the betting but none I'd like.

[ComplyOrDie]

Agree and made the point about Regent's Stroll a couple of times now DenmanSacre

He's a huge price! 100/1 means he is potentially big rewards for little risk too.

[Speedy17]

All I'm gonna say is thank f*** there's 27 races after the Supreme!!

[FinalFurlong91]

All I'm gonna say is thank f*** there's 27 races after the Supreme!!

Unfortunately there are 3 extra handicaps this year

Bookies will be delighted