2025 Novice Hurdlers

[SeanRock]

The Moscow Flyer was a very muddling race today they went a crawl for the first mile and only started racing half way down the back straight.

That made settling a very fresh and fizzy Mundi almost impossible, it didn’t help his jumping either, he made mistakes at his hurdles at all the wrong times but still found a way to win with some ease in the end. It was the manner he breezed past the field that impressed me in very tacky ground. I’m marking up that run today, plenty of schooling between now and March and he’ll take plenty of beating in the Supreme.

[opatcho]

The one positive thing I’ll call out about Mundi is…. connections do seem keen on him, probably come away today a little disappoint but knowing be could/should be better

[SeanRock]

I think he's going to destroy them in the Supreme. PT and Patrick weren't remotely bothered about his hurdling, and he'll improve for better ground. There doesn't look too be anything else in the betting that they should be worried about.

Took 5/1 straight after and tempted to go in again.

Love this confidence, easy to poke holes today if you haven’t backed him but if you look at the scenario that played out it’s understandable to me anyway as a fellow supporter

[Carnage at Taunton]

I went and watched his last two races and there's nothing wrong with his hurdling. He'll be grand imo

There was today, that’s not how a supreme winner jumps.
To say he will be grand is up to you of course, but that’s not what I saw today, so guess we will have to wait and see how he jumps in March.

[Lobos]

It’s clearly subjective but in my opinion there are four standout novices this season and (with JP buying TNL) their respective races seem fairly predictable to call:

Supreme: Salvator and Kaid
Turners: Kopek and The New Lion

The next rungs on the ladder consist of:

Supreme: Romeo, then possibly Workahead, Laafi
Turners: Potter’s Charm and Yellow Clay then possibly Koktail Divin, Jasmin, Supersundae

The markets this year (fuelled somewhat by WPM’s underwhelming Xmas) have lent themselves to some attractive doubles using the four top tier contenders.

Obviously, prepared for this to go to shit but at the moment (at least to me) it makes sense.

The 14/1 on Kopek for the Turners still seems very generous.

Yeah, it might go like that. Just depends on who Walsh thinks would have the better chance in the Supreme/Turners out of Kaid and Kel and they'll be split accordingly.

The Supreme looks miles the poorer of the two races though.

[Guinness Village]

Hmmm. Not so sure that we’ve seen a supreme winner today. Glad we’ve all got big prices from last summer, but I won’t be rushing to top up now.
romeo still the one for me in the supreme

[Lobos]

The one positive thing I’ll call out about Mundi is…. connections do seem keen on him, probably come away today a little disappoint but knowing be could/should be better

Very much so. You can tell they believe he's top tier.

[Carnage at Taunton]

Love this confidence, easy to poke holes today if you haven’t backed him but if you look at the scenario that played out it’s understandable to me anyway as a fellow supporter

It should not matter if he’s backed or not.
He’s my biggest winner in the Supreme and I’ve got him in a couple of nice doubles, but I still know that what I saw today concerns me as to his chances of winning.

[SeanRock]

There was today, that’s not how a supreme winner jumps.
To say he will be grand is up to you of course, but that’s not what I saw today, so guess we will have to wait and see how he jumps in March.

The Supreme will be ran at a polar opposite pace to that race today so probably best to not to get too hung up on his jumping. Some British trained joke will go off like the clappers with all the excitement on course & I’d imagine Paul will be more prominent, sat in the pocket ready to pounce.

[Faugheen_Machine]

It should not matter if he’s backed or not.
He’s my biggest winner in the Supreme and I’ve got him in a couple of nice doubles, but I still know that what I saw today concerns me as to his chances of winning.

You could hedge on the exchanges and lock in a nice profit.

That's what I'd be doing if I didn't think he'd be winning a Supreme, and use the funds elsewhere

[SeanRock]

It should not matter if he’s backed or not.
He’s my biggest winner in the Supreme and I’ve got him in a couple of nice doubles, but I still know that what I saw today concerns me as to his chances of winning.

Given the way the race was run can you not understand the issues he had, Paul could have let him tank on, he probably would have jumped better but it was his first run of the season against race fit rivals in very holding ground so that would have been a bit wreckless with the bigger picture & main target in mind next time out.

[Carnage at Taunton]

The Supreme will be ran at a polar opposite pace to that race today so probably best to not to get too hung up on his jumping. Some British trained joke will go off like the clappers with all the excitement on course & I’d imagine Paul will be more prominent, sat in the pocket ready to pounce.

I’m fine with the quicker race theory and helping his jumping, but it’s not a given that will happen.
We are talking about a horse that’s fav for the Supreme and one that’s been super hyped for some time now.
So he’s there to be judged and I’m just judging him on what I see.
I did not think I saw a horse today that wins the Supreme.
But of course he is allowed to prove me wrong, and my pocket hopes he does.

[Carnage at Taunton]

Given the way the race was run can you not understand the issues he had, Paul could have let him tank on, he probably would have jumped better but it was his first run of the season against race fit rivals in very holding ground so that would have been a bit wreckless with the bigger picture & main target in mind next time out.

Yes, that’s fair Sean

[Carnage at Taunton]

You could hedge on the exchanges and lock in a nice profit.

That's what I'd be doing if I didn't think he'd be winning a Supreme, and use the funds elsewhere

I’m not saying he can’t win, he can.
But imo he has to jump better than today to do so imo
And that’s basically all I’m really saying

[somer1]

If that was my 1st race since may i think i would jump like a pig. SM won today. Wont jump like that in March. SIMPLES.