2025 Novice Hurdlers

[Lobos]

lol I've heard Faugheen and Vautour mentioned now, think I'm going to move over to the cross country thread, less crazy talk in there

As has been said before, following Vautour's MF scrappy win many said 'That's not the Supreme winner'.

[Lobos]

Anyway, who's coming 2nd to him ??

[Carnage at Taunton]

Willie and Paul say no issues with his jumping. Just look at his other races. He was held up today which didn't help . He'll be fine come March. More than happy for him to go straight there. We are plenty close enough now and Willie will have him cherry ripe for the day.

But there clearly was issues today, we all saw that.
I thought you made your mind up with your eyes not trainers comments?
saying he will be fine come March is guesswork .
He might be, but on evidence today that’s nothing to be confident on imo.

[Carnage at Taunton]

Anyway, who's coming 2nd to him ??

Stupid boy!!!

[TigerRolllllll]

Workahead confirmed straight to Supreme in RP

25s won’t last

[Wayward Lad]

I've said it before but RPRs for maiden hurdles are a load of rubbish. I know a lot of people on here respect them but I'd trust my own eyes over what the Racing Post says. The RPRs have been pretty good for the Bumper and I do look at them for the Champion bumper and assessing horses at the end of their bumper season but couldn't care less what RPR they're given over jumps.

Laafi would get shit on if he turned up at the DRF. Workahead got a better RPR than them both as well but he'd get punted into touch by Kopek and Kaid as well.

Kaid and Kopek won very strong maidens IMO and won comfortably.

If SM, Kaid and Kopek aren't considered better novice hurdlers than Slade Steel, Mystical Power and Firefox by the end of the season I'll be amazed. Not after timing on those 3 either as I said they were crap last year as well.

How many star novice hurdlers do you actually have at this stage of any season? I can't really think of one. Even with Constitution Hill (who'd won the Tolworth by now), you had people on here thinking Jonbon and Willies were better. Vautour didn't go off favourite at Leopardstown after his Moscow Flyer win. Ballyburn wasn't thought as a star at this point last year. You're not really a star novice until you prove it at Cheltenham or another Spring festival after.

Mystical Powers Moscow Flyer was horrendous - none of those in behind him that day would have been less than 10/1 in today's field and that's being generous.

I'm not saying based on today's performance that SM is going to win the Supreme. But he's the right favourite, and the only ones I think could beat him are in the same stable. Kaid may be good enough as he seems very professional and Kopek has bundles of talent. But the chances of Kopek and Salvator taking each other on this year seems slim to me.

I bet Elliott thinks Romeo is miles better than Relieved of Duties so he'll not be too scared of SM.

I guess we'll only know who's right by the end of the season. But I think we'll end up with 3 proper horses lining up at the head of the market in the Supreme this year.

Why is there so much talk about Kaid for the Supreme when he won a 2 1/2 novice hurdle ?…..does Willie have previous where he runs a Supreme horse in a 2 1/2 mile race beforehand ?

Also, why isnt there more talk about Koktail Devin, as it was his first hurdle race and wasn’t beaten to far by Kaid and may improve more ?……at least he should be on the same page as Kaid in discussions, yet he is not……what am I missing ?

[DenmanSacre]

Why is there so much talk about Kaid for the Supreme when he won a 2 1/2 novice hurdle ?…..does Willie have previous where he runs a Supreme horse in a 2 1/2 mile race beforehand ?

Also, why isnt there more talk about Koktail Devin, as it was his first hurdle race and wasn’t beaten to far by Kaid and may improve more ?……at least he should be on the same page as Kaid in discussions, yet he is not……what am I missing ?

He runs like a Supreme horse, Kel looks like he'd be suited to the Turners and JP bought The New Lion so looks like Kaid will just fit into the Supreme. Don't think Willies ever ran his main horse in the Supreme after winning over further but he's got lots of novice hurdlers and Kaid fit into that maiden. If he didn't have Douvan, would Faugheen have gone to the Supreme after winning over further? Running over further doesn't bother me.

Koktail Divin is a good horse but won't be in the Supreme (owner has Workahead) so haven't mentioned him.

[opatcho]

Why is there so much talk about Kaid for the Supreme when he won a 2 1/2 novice hurdle ?…..does Willie have previous where he runs a Supreme horse in a 2 1/2 mile race beforehand ?

Also, why isnt there more talk about Koktail Devin, as it was his first hurdle race and wasn’t beaten to far by Kaid and may improve more ?……at least he should be on the same page as Kaid in discussions, yet he is not……what am I missing ?

My take on this....

Ran him in December in a 2miler, with a view of then running him the Moscow Flyer or DRF. Horse stumbled on landing at the 4th (iirc). They wanted to get a full race into him before stepping up into graded company. Picked out the 2m4f race at christmas.

I like Kaid. I think he'll win at the DRF and go short for the supreme and turners, with him turning up in the supreme
I could be horribly wrong here with Kaid.
Koktail was good and I've got him in my tracker, but monitoring where he goes before the festival as he has no entry in the DRF from what I see.

Its either I',m wrong with Kaid which would align with no real mention of Koktail. With Workahead going the supreme, Koktail is probably one going to the Turners novice which looks fairly deep atm.

If I like Kaid then I should really be looking at backing Koktail antepost at the bigger prices before his next run

[Quevega]

“We know he can jump but he didn’t jump well today because I couldn’t let him"

If you read that enough times it sounds fucking madder and madder.

[jrjr]

It’s clearly subjective but in my opinion there are four standout novices this season and (with JP buying TNL) their respective races seem fairly predictable to call:

Supreme: Salvator and Kaid
Turners: Kopek and The New Lion

The next rungs on the ladder consist of:

Supreme: Romeo, then possibly Workahead, Laafi
Turners: Potter’s Charm and Yellow Clay then possibly Koktail Divin, Jasmin, Supersundae

The markets this year (fuelled somewhat by WPM’s underwhelming Xmas) have lent themselves to some attractive doubles using the four top tier contenders.

Obviously, prepared for this to go to shit but at the moment (at least to me) it makes sense.

The 14/1 on Kopek for the Turners still seems very generous.

[Lobos]

If you read that enough times it sounds fucking madder and madder.

Actually watched the race back and didn't think he jumped that bad at all. I know what you mean...it sounds strange. Just means he was taking a real hold of him and he wasn't allowed to do jump freely.

[FinalFurlong91]

I'd say there's one stand out novice, the new lion, nothing else has really impressed hugely for me

That may change after the DRF

doesn't look a great crop for Willie atm imo

[Wayward Lad]

He runs like a Supreme horse, Kel looks like he'd be suited to the Turners and JP bought The New Lion so looks like Kaid will just fit into the Supreme. Don't think Willies ever ran his main horse in the Supreme after winning over further but he's got lots of novice hurdlers and Kaid fit into that maiden. If he didn't have Douvan, would Faugheen have gone to the Supreme after winning over further? Running over further doesn't bother me.

Koktail Divin is a good horse but won't be in the Supreme (owner has Workahead) so haven't mentioned him.

Thanks, logical

It looks like Maloney and Henry D have a cracking trio of novices this year, Workahead, Koktail Devin and Big Westerner, with two only looking to have two runs and then going straight to the festival…….they all look cracking prospects IMO

[opatcho]

Not sure where I heard this or read this, but Kel is a horse that may be better right handed on a flat track. Will try and find the quote.

[Faugheen_Machine]

But today he didn’t jump well and apparently his next race is March.

I went and watched his last two races and there's nothing wrong with his hurdling. He'll be grand imo