2025 Novice Hurdlers

[opatcho]

any way... enough of Mundi, he's there to be taken on and be interested/keeping an eye on this thread on those interested and putting forward a case for others

[Speedy17]

Frank Berry on KEL HISTOIRE, per @DavidJenningsRP:
"He ran well. He learned a fair bit from the last day and hopefully he will learn more from this.

"They went no gallop and it developed into a bit of a sprint but we're very happy with the run."

Courtesy of RTC...

Not sure a target was mentioned but assume he'll be on the boat regardless.

[Lobos]

any way... enough of Mundi, he's there to be taken on and be interested/keeping an eye on this thread on those interested and putting forward a case for others

Race closed Opatcho

[Faugheen_Machine]

but... why will he be 'fine come march' when it comes to his jumping

Recall hearing something similar being said about Asterion Forlonge and Getabird

They were totally different. He's already shown he can jump well. The two you mention were in danger of going into the Guinness village!

[Lobos]

but... why will he be 'fine come march' when it comes to his jumping

Recall hearing something similar being said about Asterion Forlonge and Getabird

And Faugheen

[Eggs]

…PT re SM;

’He was fresh and it was messy, so I would say it was going to be hard to be impressive,” said Townend.

“We know he can jump but he didn’t jump well today because I couldn’t let him. He had to dig in then off the bend on tacky ground in the straight. He had to find plenty, it’s hard to be impressive on that ground but at least he won.

“He’ll have to build on it but I think he will. He has gears and on that ground it’s hard to use gears to the best effect. I’d say a stronger run race on looser ground, wetter ground even, would be a help to him.”

The Moscow Flyer has proved to be a good Cheltenham Festival pointer over the past decade or so and sponsors Sky Bet reacted by cutting the winner to 7/2 favourite (from 5/1) for the Supreme Novices' Hurdle. Paddy Power and Betfair clipped him to 4/1 from 5s for the same contest at the Festival.

Sky Bet Head of Sports PR Michael Shinners said: "He'll need to improve and brush up on a few things but you couldn't rule out Willie Mullins improving one ahead of the Festival in March. Like Patrick states, he clearly has a huge engine."

[Wayward Lad]

Good, one I can rule out then. Very rare for anything to win a graded Cheltenham race with no graded experience.

Disappointing he won’t get another run before the Supreme, as I am all for historical trends predicting most likely winners etc

However he clearly improved a fair bit for his first run over hurdles against JDV, jumped exceptionally well (which appears to be a common narrative with lots of novices this year) and galloped all the way to the line, beating William Munny.

Watch the race again as it looked impressive to me in the way he did it and I don’t think he beat nothing……however I am missing something as our arch enemies don’t agree with me and are still going 25/1

[opatcho]

And Faugheen

lol I've heard Faugheen and Vautour mentioned now, think I'm going to move over to the cross country thread, less crazy talk in there

[Carnage at Taunton]

Race closed Opatcho

As Captain Mainwaring used to say…. stupid boy!!

[DenmanSacre]

Well it's natural to think that at this moment, because they haven't ran enough times to be exposed if not good enough. Don't get me wrong, they all look nice sorts with potential to be good, as a lot of maiden winners do at this point, but I'd ask what any of those horses have done on the track for you to think that?

If we put the hype to one side, salvators best run is a 3l beating of three average looking horses in a bunch, I would say mystical power run in the same race last year was more impressive, where he too beat average looking sorts. Romeo was good at xmas where he looked to have improved, but before that was beaten by a handicapper. Kaid and kopek both won maidens by short enough distances, the form of both is anyone's guess at this point, but laafy recorded a higher rpr down at limerick than both of them. Any of them could find a chunk of improvement as I said in my original post, but as of right now none of them have done anything to stand out to me as a potential star.

I've said it before but RPRs for maiden hurdles are a load of rubbish. I know a lot of people on here respect them but I'd trust my own eyes over what the Racing Post says. The RPRs have been pretty good for the Bumper and I do look at them for the Champion bumper and assessing horses at the end of their bumper season but couldn't care less what RPR they're given over jumps.

Laafi would get shit on if he turned up at the DRF. Workahead got a better RPR than them both as well but he'd get punted into touch by Kopek and Kaid as well.

Kaid and Kopek won very strong maidens IMO and won comfortably.

If SM, Kaid and Kopek aren't considered better novice hurdlers than Slade Steel, Mystical Power and Firefox by the end of the season I'll be amazed. Not after timing on those 3 either as I said they were crap last year as well.

How many star novice hurdlers do you actually have at this stage of any season? I can't really think of one. Even with Constitution Hill (who'd won the Tolworth by now), you had people on here thinking Jonbon and Willies were better. Vautour didn't go off favourite at Leopardstown after his Moscow Flyer win. Ballyburn wasn't thought as a star at this point last year. You're not really a star novice until you prove it at Cheltenham or another Spring festival after.

Mystical Powers Moscow Flyer was horrendous - none of those in behind him that day would have been less than 10/1 in today's field and that's being generous.

I'm not saying based on today's performance that SM is going to win the Supreme. But he's the right favourite, and the only ones I think could beat him are in the same stable. Kaid may be good enough as he seems very professional and Kopek has bundles of talent. But the chances of Kopek and Salvator taking each other on this year seems slim to me.

I bet Elliott thinks Romeo is miles better than Relieved of Duties so he'll not be too scared of SM.

I guess we'll only know who's right by the end of the season. But I think we'll end up with 3 proper horses lining up at the head of the market in the Supreme this year.

[opatcho]

They were totally different. He's already shown he can jump well. The two you mention were in danger of going into the Guinness village!

Kopak could end up on the Cross Country course, just to be a little different

[JackieMoon33]

Is it bad?

Salvator
Romeo Coolio
Kaid/Kopek (likely Kaid)

Take all 4 of those above last year's front 3. Take them above the previous years race as well.

Agreed. The perception of weakness is mainly due that Willie hasn’t run most of his better ones more than once so far. Coupled with some sketchy jumping, it’s easy to come to that conclusion. But I think there are some serious engines that are just waiting to put it all together in a better race.

[Carnage at Taunton]

They were totally different. He's already shown he can jump well. The two you mention were in danger of going into the Guinness village!

But today he didn’t jump well and apparently his next race is March.

[Lobos]

As Captain Mainwaring used to say…. stupid boy!!

Nah........

[Lobos]

But today he didn’t jump well and apparently his next race is March.

“We know he can jump but he didn’t jump well today because I couldn’t let him"