Originally posted by FinalFurlong91
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2025 Novice Hurdlers
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In recent times the horses with 2 mile form have definitely been proven the best to have onside, even when the ground has turned in favour of stamina.
Maybe that's down to the lack of numbers and lack of gallop.
Yellow Clay might need something else in there to set a really strong pace, and get soft ground to have any chance.
But I'd find it hard to see why he could win the Turners in most circumstances.
Yes he's got wins on better ground but not at any sort of level or against any really decent opposition which renders that almost meaningless.
Today's form is worth much more but was achieved IMO because of the gallop and conditions. Even though the time was average at best.
If we do have a dryish Spring then I'd not be surprised to see him in the bartlett after all.
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Originally posted by Quevega View PostIn recent times the horses with 2 mile form have definitely been proven the best to have onside, even when the ground has turned in favour of stamina.
Maybe that's down to the lack of numbers and lack of gallop.
Yellow Clay might need something else in there to set a really strong pace, and get soft ground to have any chance.
But I'd find it hard to see why he could win the Turners in most circumstances.
Yes he's got wins on better ground but not at any sort of level or against any really decent opposition which renders that almost meaningless.
Today's form is worth much more but was achieved IMO because of the gallop and conditions. Even though the time was average at best.
If we do have a dryish Spring then I'd not be surprised to see him in the bartlett after all.
leaving it as late as possible to see what the likely ground is.
Despite what the trainer has said.
If you look at his races it makes sense to me.
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Originally posted by DenmanSacre View PostCompared to the other top trainers, Willie seems to have a larger percentage of his novice hurdlers jumping poorly. You wouldn't see a Hendo or Elliott horse jumping like JDV has the last twice.
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We now have three solid form lines going in to the Turners. And all three are likely straight there.
Potter Charm
The New Lion
The Yellow Clay
The final strong form line in to the Turners is likely to be either the winner of the Moscow Flyer or DRF 2 mile.
Willie could also run Ballygunner Castle or C’est Ta Chance if impressing in the Munster Hurdle.
Willie could also drop Final Demand down in trip if showing gears in the Nathaniel Lacy and nothing else of note appearing from other races, but I’d make the Bartlett the favourite for him.
By the sounds of things, Supersundae may head here too, but whilst you could make a case for him getting closer, he’s not likely to reverse the form with TYC.
Karafon and Karniquet might too, but they’re more likely to have a mark suitable for one of the handicaps.
Gordon might also run another (potentially Bleu De Vassy or Kainsbourg).
The rest of the field will likely be once raced Mullins novices yet to appear like Jimmy De Seuil and Mercurey last year. I’m thinking Kiss Will and Funiculi Finicula this year.
On the above basis, I think we’re likely to have four strong form lines coming in. TNL, TYC, PC, and whoever Townend’s ride is.
I think 10/1 (11/1 with boost) about The Yellow Clay is a good bet. I can’t see bookies letting him go off an ew price on the day.
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Originally posted by Big Zeb View Post
I wasn't provided a reason. Maybe the horse is a couple of weeks behind and Willie wants to wait a couple of weeks, its still early January
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