2025 Novice Hurdlers

[Runragged]

If we look at his top progeny:

Thistlecrack - at his best, he achieved 170+ from good to heavy so ground was irrelevant for him
Edwardstone - another who got high ratings over a multitude of ground descriptions. Ground irrelevant for him.
Special Tiara - mainly good to soft but rating of 165 on soft
Planet of Sound - best ratings on better ground. Rarely raced on soft or worse
Identity Thief - ratings generally better on softer ground, though one good rating on yielding.
Edwulf - best two ratings on soft and heavy.
Tea for Two - 160+ on good and soft
Thyme Hill - 160+ on all ground descriptions
Secret Investor - best ratings on better ground
Blaklion - 160+ on better and heavy ground. Ground versatile
Master Tommytucker - 160+ on good and soft.

Most of them are ground versatile - I don't think there's a bias towards better ground or softer ground. To be honest, I think most horses are ground versatile (look at Lark in the Mornin and Absurde winning at Cheltenham this year when supposedly only acting on good ground) and the more important aspect to most horses performing at their best is the pace in the race.

For The New Lion, he's shown he can settle and win races that are steady early on, which is how the Turners tends to be run. I don't think the ground, whether it's heavy or good, will be an inconvenience. It will just be whether he's actually good enough, which I have my doubts. I'd fancy Potter to beat him and there'd be a couple of Irish horses I'd expect to be better.

Valid points, there is also the case that the better standard of racing is run in the later months of the season March - May where the chances of better ground are also more likely which could impact when they run their best race. I still think the progeny handle faster ground better than many though.

My opinion is that I think The New Lion will actually get tapped for toe when the pace begins to increase and that there will be a quicker rival who can hold his position better in the race and find the necessary turn of foot required to win. I'm hopeful on Potters Charm rather than as optimistic as I was before as whilst he has the requisite i'm now doubting whether he is good enough. All depends on how much the Irish runners can improve and if they send the right ones for the race!

[Exar Essay]

Kiss Will makes his long awaited debut for Willie tomorrow following tens of entries. I’ve had a bit on BFX a while ago and have taken a stab at 25/1 NRNB for both the Supreme and Turners. I think it’s a shot to nothing. I can’t see him running at the festival unless he wins tomorrow and again at the DRF. And if he does that, he’ll be 5/1.

[Carnage at Taunton]

Valid points, there is also the case that the better standard of racing is run in the later months of the season March - May where the chances of better ground are also more likely which could impact when they run their best race. I still think the progeny handle faster ground better than many though.

My opinion is that I think The New Lion will actually get tapped for toe when the pace begins to increase and that there will be a quicker rival who can hold his position better in the race and find the necessary turn of foot required to win. I'm hopeful on Potters Charm rather than as optimistic as I was before as whilst he has the requisite i'm now doubting whether he is good enough. All depends on how much the Irish runners can improve and if they send the right ones for the race!

Any idea whose tapping him for toe?

[AaronLad]

Casheldale lad 8/13 tomorrow.......
That'll pay for his supreme bets

[FinalFurlong91]

Valid points, there is also the case that the better standard of racing is run in the later months of the season March - May where the chances of better ground are also more likely which could impact when they run their best race. I still think the progeny handle faster ground better than many though.

My opinion is that I think The New Lion will actually get tapped for toe when the pace begins to increase and that there will be a quicker rival who can hold his position better in the race and find the necessary turn of foot required to win. I'm hopeful on Potters Charm rather than as optimistic as I was before as whilst he has the requisite i'm now doubting whether he is good enough. All depends on how much the Irish runners can improve and if they send the right ones for the race!

The new lion didn't look short of cruising speed in the Challow

It looked his main strength if anything

Can't see him getting tapped for toe if he turns up in that form

Whether he has the 2 mile turn of foot for the end is a different matter

[Lobos]

Don't understand why The Yellow Clay isn't fav for Sunday based on what we've seen so far ??

[Runragged]

The new lion didn't look short of cruising speed in the Challow

It looked his main strength if anything

Can't see him getting tapped for toe if he turns up in that form

Whether he has the 2 mile turn of foot for the end is a different matter

It's exactly that. He sat in 4th in the Challow somewhat off the pace. Was able to move through comfortably up against stayers up a long straight. Not sure when the pace increases up against horses with the ability to win graded races over 2m that he will be able to pick them up and finish faster. Like I say, that is my opinion. I think if he gets there fit and well he will place, but like so many from the Challow he will be 2nd or 3rd with a quicker horse or two getting first run. Predicting it now. As to what that will be well from a selfish view I am on Jasmin De Vaux and Potters Charm so hopefully one of those who have both shown the right credentials, albeit JDV needs to do it in a higher grade and show he can jump better. We still have a few trials to come especially in Ireland so I am sure something will show their hand there also.

[Carnage at Taunton]

It's exactly that. He sat in 4th in the Challow somewhat off the pace. Was able to move through comfortably up against stayers up a long straight. Not sure when the pace increases up against horses with the ability to win graded races over 2m that he will be able to pick them up and finish faster. Like I say, that is my opinion. I think if he gets there fit and well he will place, but like so many from the Challow he will be 2nd or 3rd with a quicker horse or two getting first run. Predicting it now. As to what that will be well from a selfish view I am on Jasmin De Vaux and Potters Charm so hopefully one of those who have both shown the right credentials, albeit JDV needs to do it in a higher grade and show he can jump better. We still have a few trials to come especially in Ireland so I am sure something will show their hand there also.

So basically you are just guessing that one horse, maybe two will be quicker.
Yep, maybe what’s to come in Ireland will help you.

[Benjy23]

I'm guessing one or two Irish trained will be quicker than both The New Lion and Potters Charm

[Carnage at Taunton]

I'm guessing one or two Irish trained will be quicker than both The New Lion and Potters Charm

I’m guessing you may be right, and if you are I hope it’s The Yellow Clay or maybe Kopek D B

[Eggs]

…..Mullins;

Sounds Victorius looks a real nice staying chaser in the making, he’s as lazy as sin and jumping only lights him up. Down the back in Fairyhouse, because of the low-lying sun, they’d taken out the hurdles and Paul said he fell asleep and looked like he was going to be beaten turning for home.

[Hurricane fly]

Is there any news on Jeroboam Machin? I've been searching around and can't find anything on his recovery or any entries.

[HoldenTheReins]

The New Lion bought by JP

[Exar Essay]

The New Lion bought by JP

If his price could contract more, it would.

[ComplyOrDie]

The New Lion bought by JP

Jesus!

Darren Yates has been a big spender over the years, JP must have spent a fair fortune buying him!