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Originally posted by Carnage at Taunton
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Leo 2m 4yo MdH Boxing Day - no evidence of an issue other than lack of schooling
Kopek Des Bordes (1st) Looked like he'd never seen a hurdle in his life, but had a bloody good engine. Ran to par given the hurdling issues?
Kawaboomga (2nd) Hard to knock it
Zillow (4th) Again, hard to knock it
Lim 2m 3yo MdH Boxing Day - Possible evidence of lack of fitness/experience
Lincoln du Seuil (6th) Keen through the race (according to RP comments), understandable he wouldn't finish the race off given that and lack of experience (only 2nd lifetime run, first 5 all at least 3 lifetime runs)
Leo 2m MdH Boxing Day - Excusable runs
Redemption Day (4th) Travelled wide and without the hood. Patrick made a comment that he improved for both the hood and being out the back last year but that it wouldn't be possible to do that in an 18 runner maiden hurdle. Excusable.
Joueur Masque (8th) Was well regarded, previous comment from Willie "not a lot has gone right for him since he got here", second run back after 2 years off. Just as reasonable to assume he's no longer that good after injuries as it is to assume he could do better.
Lim 2m 4yo MdH Boxing Day - Possible evidence of lack of health
Karamoja (PU) Haven't watched the race - jockey reported stopped quickly. Had had a run so either got an injury, had a wind issue, or has a bug.
Leo 2m 3yo G2H Boxing Day - No evidence of an issue other than fitness/experience
Lady Vega Allen (2nd) and Sony Bill (3rd) Ran their races
Willy De Howell (6th) Pulled like a train, was never going to get home.
Murcia (8th) Weakened quickly after second last. I'm hoping that this was fitness given the drift on her through the day, but possible it was wind/injury
Lim 2m7f G2NvH Boxing Day - No evidence of an issue or market knowledge that there was an issue
Mister Pink (6th) 14/1 in a 6 runner race despite being half a length behind 4/1 shot last time. Others can decide, I'd err on the side of him being prepped for a handicap/ridden for the race to fall apart.
Leo 2m NvHcH Boxing Day - No idea
Johnny Blue (18th) Clearly didn't run his race. No idea why due to fog and I don't think I watched the race.
Leo 2m 3yo MdH 27th - Evidence of lack of schooling
Last Kingdom (4th) Looked like he'd never seen a hurdle in his life, ran reasonably well considering that.
Lim 2m4f MdHM 27th - No idea
Saint Tartare (3rd) Beaten 3.5l at 100/30 in a 17 runner race doesn't seem bad on face of it but I didn't watch the race.
Leo 2m G1NvH 27th - No evidence of poor health, but no good runs.
Karafon (4th) Arguably out ran market expectations given he was 10/1
Karniquet (5th) Made some bad mistakes, excusable run given the mistakes.
Sea Of Sands (PU) Never looked happy off memory, maybe made a mistake or 2 (happy to be corrected on this) - possible horse off day rather than poor health?
Leo 2m4f 4yo MdH 27th - Evidence of lack of schooling/fitness
Kaid D'Authie (1st) Won despite drift, won snugly as well for my money.
Kalix Delabarriere (4th) Little bit keen, some mistakes (particularly 3 out), looked after when chance gone but didn't see his race out - didn't stop as quickly as (e.g.) Murcia though suggesting fitness to me
Lim 2m5f MdH 27th - No evidence of an issue
Final Demand (1st) Won easily.
Leo 2m4f MdH 28th - Evidence of lack of schooling, possible issue, more likely injury (for my money)
Port Joulain (3rd) Ran pretty well as the second string. Drift suggested he wasn't there to win, as did running style - started prominent then lost place
Argento Boy (PU) Looked like he'd never seen a hurdle then stopped extremely quickly suggesting wind issue/injury to me
So based on the above, the main issue with the novice hurdlers for me was that they couldn't jump hurdles - the question is whether this is likely to be caused by horses having a bug or being in poor health or more likely to be caused by the unseasonably fast ground reducing the amount of schooling that has been done so far? I'm open to others' thoughts but my instinct would be to say that poor health wouldn't cause a good horse to not be able to jump?
Of the others, only 4 stopped quickly and potentially had a bug for my money: Karamoja, Murcia, Sea Of Sands, Argento Boy; but there are other possible reasons for all four of those horses stopping quickly.
From a novice perspective then - no bug?
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