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I've said previously I wouldn't back an English horse in the Turners and I'd still stick to that, despite being fairly impressed by TNL yesterday.
The New Lion did look very good yesterday - finishing speed above average at 104.28% compared to around 100% at Newbury and was 110% the time before that and for his first run of the season. So he's done well in slower run races. He does settle well and that won't bother him in the Turners - we can't yet say the same for some of Willies who have to be ridden more forward in their maidens due to the field size etc.
But his top speed so far is pretty average across all 3 wins. I'm not sure he has that real top class top speed you need to win the Turners. I'm sure he'll be travelling like a dream throughout but he's going to get caught out when the pace really gets going. As a prospect for the Turners, I'd have Potters Charm the top English hope. He's won at Cheltenham twice in slowly run races and has that important 2m form.
I do still think though that there's enough promise in some of the Irish horse debuts compared to what TNL and PC showed for them to move to the top of the market by the time we get to the festival.
Reading that i think you should reserve the right to change your mind!!
You do seem to quiet like the English, and it’s not a given that the promise in Ireland will turn out to be better.
The key word there is ‘reputations’. He’s beaten reputations which is often the case in the UK. The second horse home tells you all you need to know about those reputations.
He’s absolutely pissed home though!!
I’m not really bothered who finishes 2nd when they win like that, unless of course that one has already proven a big threat for March.
Reading that i think you should reserve the right to change your mind!!
You do seem to quiet like the English, and it’s not a given that the promise in Ireland will turn out to be better.
I doubt I'll be backing anything else in the race until the DRF and hopefully won't be needing to back anything else. I only back 1 or 2 in this race and already got 3 so will be laying at least one off in the next month.
Got the Lawlors, Moscow Flyer, and the 2 grade 1s at the DRF, although I'd not want my Turners horse to be declared in the 2m6 race.
I'd like to see a match between Potters Charm and The New Lion as I think Potters Charm is better.
Potters Charm was my one to watch for the AB so he's shown a lot more speed than I thought he'd have. Can't wait to see him over a fence.
He’s absolutely pissed home though!!
I’m not really bothered who finishes 2nd when they win like that, unless of course that one has already proven a big threat for March.
No question he pissed in and no question he’s a player for March. For me, the question is how good that race is as a Grade 1 versus an Irish maiden.
Like this. I bang the drum about horses that could be Supreme or Turners versus those that could be Turners or AB. The New Lion is not one that should be running in the AB so he’s coming from a different angle to most recent Challow winners.
Yes. It adds to your point about the ground too. A slogger (or Tank) usually wins the Challow but that really didn’t look the case this year.
We’re usually having the conversation about 2m5 or 3m now. We aren’t having that discussion today.
I’ll not be writing him off because of the ‘stat’ but will be waiting for the Irish before topping up on anything.
I don't know if it's been posted but Venusienne is now considered doubtful to be out before next season according to Mark Howard. Still generally quoted at 20/1 by most.
The Enabler is a right rogue. But I’m still holding faith that a true pace, big field where he can be buried a bit, will see him at his best. Dossed when he hit the front there so needs to be held onto longer.
Strange race. Argento just not good enough. Port Joulain shaped quite well on his first completed start even though he went out as far as 25/1 and i just haven't got a clue what the craic with The Enabler is
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