2025 Novice Hurdlers

[Carnage at Taunton]

Partly but not entirely.
21 years is going back a long time...
the Irish weren't always so dominant.
but the Challow is quite clearly a difficult race to win and follow up at the festival
even an all time great denman didn't accomplish such an elusive double.
the new lion? Same old story

I think there’s reasons to think the stat could be broken as it stands right now.
No stand out from Ireland as yet imo
And the ground was a lot different yesterday to most challows that I’ve seen.
And TNL looks a classier individual than most Challow winners to me.
Don’t think we should be dismissing him and deserves to be fav in an open year thus far imo.

[JackieMoon33]

I liked the performance from TNL and if he’s not in your book already, don’t bother until nearer the time as his price is going nowhere now. By the time the festival comes round, the Irish trials would have been run and the market will look a lot different.

A couple of things that need to keep people grounded though:

1.) Some of those Irish maidens would have been a better quality than the Challow.

2.) Some of the Irish big guns have only run once this season so have huge upside to come.

Right now TNL has laid down the best visual marker of the novice hurdlers but the season is still in its infancy. The Irish runners have started late and the best trials on that side of the sea are still to come.

[DenmanSacre]

Mullins, Henderson, Skeltons

that’s the starting point when running through the fez race card

Elliott and Nichols have fallen away

Don't forget Henry.

[AaronLad]

I think there’s reasons to think the stat could be broken as it stands right now.
No stand out from Ireland as yet imo
And the ground was a lot different yesterday to most challows that I’ve seen.
And TNL looks a classier individual than most Challow winners to me.
Don’t think we should be dismissing him and deserves to be fav in an open year thus far imo.

Probably a bit of pocket talk tbh with you cat.
he was very impressive.
I think his price stinks a bit though.
As JackieMoon33 correctly reminds everyone the big Irish trials are still to be run.
Although I do think you're slightly under playing the quality of the Challow JM , a couple of big reputations that the new lion made quite light work of.

[Carnage at Taunton]

I liked the performance from TNL and if he’s not in your book already, don’t bother until nearer the time as his price is going nowhere now. By the time the festival comes round, the Irish trials would have been run and the market will look a lot different.

A couple of things that need to keep people grounded though:

1.) Some of those Irish maidens would have been a better quality than the Challow.

2.) Some of the Irish big guns have only run once this season so have huge upside to come.

Right now TNL has laid down the best visual marker of the novice hurdlers but the season is still in its infancy. The Irish runners have started late and the best trials on that side of the sea are still to come.

Yep, fair points
I do think it’s livened things up though, now we await developments!!

[Carnage at Taunton]

Probably a bit of pocket talk tbh with you cat.
he was very impressive.
I think his price stinks a bit though.
As JackieMoon33 correctly reminds everyone the big Irish trials are still to be run.
Although I do think you're slightly under playing the quality of the Challow JM , a couple of big reputations that the new lion made quite light work of.

No pocket talk at all. I don’t like that. I have a couple of others that win me more anyway.
Just saying as I think re the horse and the Challow as a race.
One can give honest opinion without cash being involved.

[Exar Essay]

It’s the same every year. Not just with the stat but with the speculation re the Irish not being as good this year. BMG, Hermes Allen were all massive favs before the Lawlors, Moscow Flyer, and DRF races were run.

I think the “future chasers” type normally wins this too. In the last 10 years, four winners have gone to the Ballymore. Three of those were for Nicholls where the horse wasn’t suited to the speed test of the Ballymore. The other was Messire Des Obeaux, another chasing sort. You wouldn’t describe any of them as typical Ballymore types.

To my eye, The New Lion bucks the trend. He might be a chaser down the line, but he has a turn of foot and hurdles nicely. He does look more in the mould of a Ballymore horse.

[AaronLad]

No pocket talk at all. I don’t like that. I have a couple of others that win me more anyway.
Just saying as I think re the horse and the Challow as a race.
One can give honest opinion without cash being involved.

No mate pocket talk from me in my original post

[Carnage at Taunton]

No mate pocket talk from me in my original post

Apologies my friend, got the wrong end of the stick!!

[AaronLad]

Apologies my friend, got the wrong end of the stick!!

No worries mate, I probably wasn't clear enough.
I'm on Potters charm, think hes great, but of the two, im impressed most by the new lion, and I'm a bit gutted I've missed the boat with him.

[Carnage at Taunton]

No worries mate, I probably wasn't clear enough.
I'm on Potters charm, think hes great, but of the two, im impressed most by the new lion, and I'm a bit gutted I've missed the boat with him.

Yep, potters charm is good for me too.
Im glad they are going straight there with him, think it makes complete sense,he’s good!!

[Exar Essay]

I wonder if they’ll leave the handbrake off The Enabler today. It doesn’t look a great race to hide in. I Am Lorenzo and Harbour Highway two others potentially looking not to be too close at the finish.

[DenmanSacre]

I've said previously I wouldn't back an English horse in the Turners and I'd still stick to that, despite being fairly impressed by TNL yesterday.

The New Lion did look very good yesterday - finishing speed above average at 104.28% compared to around 100% at Newbury and was 110% the time before that and for his first run of the season. So he's done well in slower run races. He does settle well and that won't bother him in the Turners - we can't yet say the same for some of Willies who have to be ridden more forward in their maidens due to the field size etc.

But his top speed so far is pretty average across all 3 wins. I'm not sure he has that real top class top speed you need to win the Turners. I'm sure he'll be travelling like a dream throughout but he's going to get caught out when the pace really gets going. As a prospect for the Turners, I'd have Potters Charm the top English hope. He's won at Cheltenham twice in slowly run races and has that important 2m form.

I do still think though that there's enough promise in some of the Irish horse debuts compared to what TNL and PC showed for them to move to the top of the market by the time we get to the festival.

[JackieMoon33]

Probably a bit of pocket talk tbh with you cat.
he was very impressive.
I think his price stinks a bit though.
As JackieMoon33 correctly reminds everyone the big Irish trials are still to be run.
Although I do think you're slightly under playing the quality of the Challow JM , a couple of big reputations that the new lion made quite light work of.

The key word there is ‘reputations’. He’s beaten reputations which is often the case in the UK. The second horse home tells you all you need to know about those reputations.

[JackieMoon33]

It’s the same every year. Not just with the stat but with the speculation re the Irish not being as good this year. BMG, Hermes Allen were all massive favs before the Lawlors, Moscow Flyer, and DRF races were run.

I think the “future chasers” type normally wins this too. In the last 10 years, four winners have gone to the Ballymore. Three of those were for Nicholls where the horse wasn’t suited to the speed test of the Ballymore. The other was Messire Des Obeaux, another chasing sort. You wouldn’t describe any of them as typical Ballymore types.

To my eye, The New Lion bucks the trend. He might be a chaser down the line, but he has a turn of foot and hurdles nicely. He does look more in the mould of a Ballymore horse.

Like this. I bang the drum about horses that could be Supreme or Turners versus those that could be Turners or AB. The New Lion is not one that should be running in the AB so he’s coming from a different angle to most recent Challow winners.