2025 Novice Hurdlers

[Lobos]

The early signs are indicating that last year's juveniles were probably a pretty decent bunch, so I'd be willing to give him a chance. His run at leopardstown on debut for mullins was just as good as salvator mundis triumph run, but he's much less hyped rightly or wrongly.

I count 8 others of Willie's in front of him in the betting after today's win and that includes the Elusive Scarlet Pimpernel himself, Kawaboomga.

[Craigy14]

I count 8 others of Willie's in front of him in the betting after today's win and that includes the Elusive Scarlet Pimpernel himself, Kawaboomga.

Surely you can’t go off the betting when next to none of them have had a run yet mate?

Most of them have only come from France, WPM won’t even know his best yet. As we hear time and time again, he lets them sort themselves out on the track who’s number 1.

[Lobos]

Surely you can’t go off the betting when next to none of them have had a run yet mate?

Most of them have only come from France, WPM won’t even know his best yet. As we hear time and time again, he lets them sort themselves out on the track who’s number 1.

2nd today beaten 30 lengths last time. No way could I entertain backing the winner for the Fez Novices based on that. Being out this early with Patrick on his back probably tells the story. Handicap maybe ?

[Quevega]

2nd today beaten 30 lengths last time. No way could I entertain backing the winner for the Fez Novices based on that. Being out this early with Patrick on his back probably tells the story. Handicap maybe ?

I'd be on this side of this discussion also.
Didn't look like he had loads up his sleeve really.
Plenty of time though to get proved wrong.

[BuckingThe Trend]

Jumped really well. Looked like he was coasting well within himself and always looked like the winner. I was rather taken with him and the performance and have not seen a lot better out so far this season. I'm in and I'm on.

[Craigy14]

2nd today beaten 30 lengths last time. No way could I entertain backing the winner for the Fez Novices based on that. Being out this early with Patrick on his back probably tells the story. Handicap maybe ?

Listen I’m not saying he’s a Grade 1 winner I’m just saying surely you don’t just look at the markets to decide who’s WPM’s best novices. Yes they are a guide but most end up entered up the same price by the bookies unless they’ve had a run over here. Then what they do on the track sorts the pecking order. I thought he did that well today, giving 7lbs and won fairly easily once given a little shake of the reigns by Patrick. He hurdled really smoothly to my eye, certainly made a length nearly every hurdle on the Giggs horse. Could well be a handicap now he’s had 3 runs.

[ComplyOrDie]

Before anyone starts going on about horses having to start somewhere, even Willie himself says so, I'm not a complete believer of this theory.

Willie Mullins has never won a Supreme with a horse that has won over 2m3f or further, for him, before the festival.

Champagne Fever tried, he lost over 2m4f in the Slaney Novice Hurdle, before dropping back to 2m.

I genuinely thought the pattern/habit would have been broken last season, when he had a prime opportunity to do so, with Ballyburn, but he still didn't.

Not only this, he rarely runs them in the race either. Kilcruit, Blue Lord, Elixir D'ainay, Aramon, Getabird, Bellshill, Shaneshill & Tell Us More of the last 10 renewals, all ran over an intermediate trip prior to the Supreme, only one of them placed. Admittedly, you could argue Blue Lord was booked to place as well, but that was a weak enough renewal, during covid times!

Some will call it a coincidence, but it should come as no surprise Willie chooses to run his best 2 mile hurdlers, over 2 miles (funnily enough), prior to the festival, and not a whole lot further.

On this basis, Karafon wouldn't be at the top of my list of horses for the Supreme, despite him putting in a nice display today.

He is one I'm keen to keep an eye on going forward though.


Just to note. I'm not saying he couldn't win with one of them, of course he could, but he's clearly a man of habit when it comes to the route for his best Supreme hope.

[Lobos]

No, don't just look at the market , look at far too much me, although it's often a good guide of course. He's just not one I fancy for any of the top Novice Hurdles so a no bet for me.

[BuckingThe Trend]

Before anyone starts going on about horses having to start somewhere, even Willie himself says so, I'm not a complete believer of this theory.

Willie Mullins has never won a Supreme with a horse that has won over 2m3f or further, for him, before the festival.

Champagne Fever tried, he lost over 2m4f in the Slaney Novice Hurdle, before dropping back to 2m.

I genuinely thought the pattern/habit would have been broken last season, when he had a prime opportunity to do so, with Ballyburn, but he still didn't.

Not only this, he rarely runs them in the race either. Kilcruit, Blue Lord, Elixir D'ainay, Aramon, Getabird, Bellshill, Shaneshill & Tell Us More of the last 10 renewals, all ran over an intermediate trip prior to the Supreme, only one of them placed. Admittedly, you could argue Blue Lord was booked to place as well, but that was a weak enough renewal, during covid times!

Some will call it a coincidence, but it should come as no surprise Willie chooses to run his best 2 mile hurdlers, over 2 miles (funnily enough), prior to the festival, and not a whole lot further.

On this basis, Karafon wouldn't be at the top of my list of horses for the Supreme, despite him putting in a nice display today.

He is one I'm keen to keep an eye on going forward though.


Just to note. I'm not saying he couldn't win with one of them, of course he could, but he's clearly a man of habit when it comes to the route for his best Supreme hope.

That is really good data/feedback ref Willie novices winning over further than 2m before the Festival. Thanks. KARAFON to break the Willie mould then !

[Eggs]

….post-race re Karafon;


Karafon (7-4) was usurped as favourite for division two by his Jody Townend-ridden stablemate Karamoja (5-6), but the former – not seen since finishing fifth in a Grade Two at Leopardstown last Christmas – got the job done in fine style. Uhavemeinstitches made late gains to split the Mullins pair in second.

Mullins added: “He jumped brilliant, settled great and his form entitled him to do it like that.

“I couldn’t ride Karamoja for weight reasons and at home she would work as well as the winner, but Karafon has an extra season’s training with us under his belt. That is often worth a lot and Karamoja ran keen and will probably improve more from it.

“We think a lot of both horses and can step Karafon up in grade now.”

Note; Karamoja out to 40-1 MNH.

[FredFlintstone]

Karafon 14/1 for the future champions with PP

[Exar Essay]

Karafon 14/1 for the future champions with PP

There could be a bit of value in the market. Mundi sounded touch and go for Xmas. Supersundae too. Willie won’t run a maiden in it. And he doesn’t like horses running less than 4-weeks apart. So that leaves Sea Of Sands, Bellocio, Irancy, Ballygunner Castle, and Karniquet as potential runners. And maybe, at a push, Karafon.

I also wondered if JDV might go to the Lawlors. If he’s out this weekend that would leave 4-weeks between races.

[Odin]

There could be a bit of value in the market. Mundi sounded touch and go for Xmas. Supersundae too. Willie won’t run a maiden in it. And he doesn’t like horses running less than 4-weeks apart. So that leaves Sea Of Sands, Bellocio, Irancy, Ballygunner Castle, and Karniquet as potential runners. And maybe, at a push, Karafon.

I also wondered if JDV might go to the Lawlors. If he’s out this weekend that would leave 4-weeks between races.

I wonder if Kilgame would get declared this weekend and then potentially go there if HDB more flexible about rest between races? 25/1 could look big by the end of Saturday...

[Ray]

There could be a bit of value in the market. Mundi sounded touch and go for Xmas. Supersundae too. Willie won’t run a maiden in it. And he doesn’t like horses running less than 4-weeks apart. So that leaves Sea Of Sands, Bellocio, Irancy, Ballygunner Castle, and Karniquet as potential runners. And maybe, at a push, Karafon.

I also wondered if JDV might go to the Lawlors. If he’s out this weekend that would leave 4-weeks between races.

Id be quite confident hed be a lawlors horse, ive backed him for the ballymore because i could see him running there and getting his soft/heavy ground and being a fave after probably winning it if hes good over his hurdles..i dont think hed win the ballymore unless there is soft in the description, but whoever wins the lawlors tends to be up in the betting for the race

[Birds Nest]

Smart performance that from royal infantry, honeball thinks a lot of the 2nd too,could turn out to be a nice bit of form.