2025 Novice Hurdlers

[Killiney]

My simplistic approach would include bumper mares, it’s just the pointers I don’t like for the race. The one benefit of That’s Nice being a JP homebred is that she was never going through the sales ring. That could mean she had a gentler education versus those mares who are commodities for the point handlers, to sell for crazy money.

Presumably your thinking is that the P-P mares are NH bred and need more time than French or flat breds. Interesting your thought that the process of buying and selling inhibits their (PP horses) development.

[JackieMoon33]

Presumably your thinking is that the P-P mares are NH bred and need more time than French or flat breds. Interesting your thought that the process of buying and selling inhibits their (PP horses) development.

The P2P mares usually have a more stout pedigree as they're often Irish bred and required to run 2m4 or 3m as 4yo's. Those races are not championship pace and you can win without being an out-and-out stayer, but you have to have a fair amount of stamina to prevail. Don't get me wrong, there are plenty of P2P winners who go on to be best over 2m, but the way the Irish breeding has developed, a higher percentage are more likely to be stayers now.

Additionally, the P2P handlers need to get returns at the sales and the only way to guarantee that is to have an impressive winner of a P2P. So it's in the interest of the handler to have them trained hard and ready to perform at a young age to ensure a decent return on their investment. Does this potentially effect their future development? Maybe, maybe not, but the amount of well thought of, high priced P2P mares who have struggled under rules is very high. They are sometimes sent over hurdles straight away so they might not be fully developed until their second season under rules, which is where a lot of P2P mares tend to be more successful, and over a longer trip than the MNH too.

Those two factors are enough to keep me from backing them for the MNH, especially before they've even run.

[Exar Essay]

The form of this race has another chance to be 'franked' today with the 3rd place that day first confession running in the opener at ascot, up against milan tino.

In he goes like a good thing ...

[Lobos]

In he goes like a good thing ...

Potters goes top of my Novice Hurdle list

[DenmanSacre]

I'm a fan of Potters Charm for the Albert Bartlett so I'm hoping he doesn't win the Challow or Formby, whichever he goes for. The form of the race last month is working out well but last week's race from a time point of view was very disappointing. He hasn't had to race away from Valgrand, the Skelton horse has just folded (intentionally or otherwise). Gale Mahler is a typical summer horse that gets rated too highly. Potters Charms overall time and closing sectionals are no better than the 114 rated Double Powerful earlier in the card. He obviously could have run quicker if needed but I just don't see him having that potent turn of foot to be a Turners horse or the necessary gears for the Supreme. In the AB, he'd be able to gallop at his cruising speed no bother and have a great chance.

Do we know yet if they're going the Challow or Formby or nothing mentioned since last week?

[AaronLad]

I'm a fan of Potters Charm for the Albert Bartlett so I'm hoping he doesn't win the Challow or Formby, whichever he goes for. The form of the race last month is working out well but last week's race from a time point of view was very disappointing. He hasn't had to race away from Valgrand, the Skelton horse has just folded (intentionally or otherwise). Gale Mahler is a typical summer horse that gets rated too highly. Potters Charms overall time and closing sectionals are no better than the 114 rated Double Powerful earlier in the card. He obviously could have run quicker if needed but I just don't see him having that potent turn of foot to be a Turners horse or the necessary gears for the Supreme. In the AB, he'd be able to gallop at his cruising speed no bother and have a great chance.

Do we know yet if they're going the Challow or Formby or nothing mentioned since last week?

His trainer has said he quickens much better with a bit of juice in the ground, closing sectionals from ffos Las bumper win highlights that.

Not sure he's been In a race yet where hes had to show a 'potent turn of foot',

[ComplyOrDie]

Potters Charm has chucked aside everything that has been put in front of him so far, that I concede, but I do feel the winning margin LTO was exaggerated by the fact Valgrand set it up for him entirely (and possibly doesn't see out that trip, at least on a stiff track, anyway). Let's not forget he was also getting 2lbs from Valgrand, not huge, but when a horse sets up a race for another, going like he did, that 2lb will certainly count for a little come the end of a race.

It reminds me of the time Weveallbeencaught, for the same yard, who was a solid enough looking horse at the time, then went over to the DRF and got his arse handed to him on a plate, that horse has never been the same since.

Is Potters Charm better than Weveallbeencaught? Quite possibly so, but I'm not getting overly excited about him based on what we've seen so far.

So many horses to come out still, including from all the bigger yards.

FWIW I think Nigel is doing a great job mopping up prize money whilst others don't want to run because of the 'ground'.

[AaronLad]

Not sure how Potters charm reminds you of weveallbeencaught ComplyOrDie, he'd already had his arse handed to him by hermes Allen in the race which Potters charm won .
Potters charm is unbeaten under rules without a button being seriously pressed yet.

[Quevega]

Not sure how Potters charm reminds you of weveallbeencaught ComplyOrDie, he'd already had his arse handed to him by hermes Allen in the race which Potters charm won .
Potters charm is unbeaten under rules without a button being seriously pressed yet.

One of reasons I like Potters Charm and have now backed him (pretty sure I'll regret it ) is the way he accellerated away from Valgrand on the bend, he seemed to put the race to bed in a few strides. I hope and expect that he may be the best of the UK lot at 2 and a half and am pretty sure they will aim at the turners based on past history.
So he seems a safe bet to get onside.
I did try and hold off but the B365 boost at 22-1 tempted me. Seemed value all things considered.
If he wins his grade 1 next time out then he is likely low to mid single figures

[ComplyOrDie]

Not sure how Potters charm reminds you of weveallbeencaught ComplyOrDie, he'd already had his arse handed to him by hermes Allen in the race which Potters charm won .
Potters charm is unbeaten under rules without a button being seriously pressed yet.

It reminds me in terms of talk about him. He was supposedly well thought of, a few people on here were thinking he'd be a Bartlett type, but that soon went in the bin, even more so when he met the Irish, which is exactly what I think will happen to Potters Charm.

Like I said, being unbeaten is on Nigel & the team, but he's beat very little. It's all 'early season form' where the big stables have yet to play their hands. I'm not sure what Nicky has but we know Paul has a fair few that could rank highly over here.

[AaronLad]

It reminds me in terms of talk about him. He was supposedly well thought of, a few people on here were thinking he'd be a Bartlett type, but that soon went in the bin, even more so when he met the Irish, which is exactly what I think will happen to Potters Charm.

Like I said, being unbeaten is on Nigel & the team, but he's beat very little. It's all 'early season form' where the big stables have yet to play their hands. I'm not sure what Nicky has but we know Paul has a fair few that could rank highly over here.

I agree with everything you say about potential other contenders yet to be seen.
But weveallbeencaught was eyecatching because he stayed on up the hill well, potters charm although as you have said hasn't beaten anything, the manner in which he effortlessly won lto doesn't look at all like 3miles is needed yet.
He may well not be good enough or quick enough but to me he looks it and until beaten ill be backing him, I really like him.

[AaronLad]

One of reasons I like Potters Charm and have now backed him (pretty sure I'll regret it ) is the way he accellerated away from Valgrand on the bend, he seemed to put the race to bed in a few strides. I hope and expect that he may be the best of the UK lot at 2 and a half and am pretty sure they will aim at the turners based on past history.
So he seems a safe bet to get onside.
I did try and hold off but the B365 boost at 22-1 tempted me. Seemed value all things considered.
If he wins his grade 1 next time out then he is likely low to mid single figures

Being one I quite like this has to be long odds on

[ComplyOrDie]

He may well not be good enough or quick enough but to me he looks it and until beaten ill be backing him, I really like him.

This is where I see him, unfortunately.

Just reading through Quevega post it makes sense backing him, because ultimately he might only have one or two to beat this side of the water and will be plenty shorter come the day, but the Irish have won 9 of the last 10 renewals of the race, and every year I seemed to get sucked into backing the UK horses, with barely any returns.

Jasmin De Vaux aside (unless Jalon makes the race too), it does look a weak enough renewal, in terms of what I, personally, would be looking for as a potential winner of the race. Should anything happen to Jasmin or Jalon then you may have yourself a live enough bet, I guess.

[Craigy14]

I quite like the fact they are being bold and aiming high with Potters Charm. I was similar to Denman in thinking he would love 3m and has a turn of gear that would be put to very good use potentially at the end of an Albert Bartlett.

They did win the race with The New One many years ago, maybe that’s why Nigel isn’t doing much of the talking, but they couldn’t be more than pleased with what’s he’s done to date. If he wins the Grade 1 over 2m then I think we have to take him seriously until March when we’ve seen all the other players up in Grade. Essentially we don’t know what the British and Irish form is like until they meet at Cheltenham. If he goes to the Challow and wins, personally would prefer him to go AB, as Nicholls should have done with 2 or 3 of his winners there recently imo.

[Carnage at Taunton]

I agree with everything you say about potential other contenders yet to be seen.
But weveallbeencaught was eyecatching because he stayed on up the hill well, potters charm although as you have said hasn't beaten anything, the manner in which he effortlessly won lto doesn't look at all like 3miles is needed yet.
He may well not be good enough or quick enough but to me he looks it and until beaten ill be backing him, I really like him.

Yep he’s been very impressive and his 2nd race imo the best visual impression from any mid distance nov hurdler
Seen this season.
Will obviously meet much better opponents and we will then find out exactly where he stands, but I’m more than happy to have him onside for the Turners.