2025 Novice Hurdlers

[Runragged]

6 5yo's have won the Gallagher in the last 20 years. Sounds a bit better than 1 in 11....

It does indeed. But in my mind it is less relevant. Races change and evolve along with breeding and how races are targeted and horses developed. The lack of 5yo winners coming from a NH background in all three graded novice hurdles is surely significant in the last 10 or so years?

[ComplyOrDie]

It does indeed. But in my mind it is less relevant. Races change and evolve along with breeding and how races are targeted and horses developed. The lack of 5yo winners coming from a NH background in all three graded novice hurdles is surely significant in the last 10 or so years?

I believe so.

I try not to back any horse without a p2p or French background for the Gallaghers, unless with free bets. Which is what I am trying to do with Kopek Des Bordes. For all that his bumper performance was impressive I'd be leaning more towards a Supreme with him.

City Island I backed on the day using the offers available back then, but it meant I lost out when Willoughby Court won the race as he didn't fit the profile I prefer. I also didn't back Windsor Park.

But that's two in the last 10 runnings of the race, always going to end up with outliers.

[Lobos]

Gale Mahler to run at Cheltenham next week in Grade 2 Novice Hurdle and may then target Greatwood Hurdle in November.

[BuckingThe Trend]

Can someone educate me why Salvator Mundi is 12/1 for the Supreme and 50/1 for the Gallaghers. Why are the bookmakers and Ante Post Punters apparently so certain he will go Supreme ?

[ComplyOrDie]

Can someone educate me why Salvator Mundi is 12/1 for the Supreme and 50/1 for the Gallaghers. Why are the bookmakers and Ante Post Punters apparently so certain he will go Supreme ?

I think it's the obvious really, a French Hurdling import for Willie Mullins, has raced exclusively over 2m, including that French form tie with Sir Gino & then absolutely dotting up on his last start. Absolutely no reason for them to step him up in trip until he's now beat over 2m this coming season.

Also, if you're quoting the top price for the Gallaghers at least quote the top price for the Supreme and not the lowest, so 20/1 & 50/1.

[BuckingThe Trend]

I think it's the obvious really, a French Hurdling import for Willie Mullins, has raced exclusively over 2m, including that French form tie with Sir Gino & then absolutely dotting up on his last start. Absolutely no reason for them to step him up in trip until he's now beat over 2m this coming season.

Also, if you're quoting the top price for the Gallaghers at least quote the top price for the Supreme and not the lowest, so 20/1 & 50/1.

Appreciate you taking the time to reply. Thanks. That is what I assumed. I quoted the two prices I quoted to highlight/emphasise the significant difference to make the point.

[Yosser]

He is still the best value by far in my opinion of any horse in any race. With all we know about Salvator Mundi, who trains him, his background, owners, form etc I think 20/1 is a knocking E/W bet at this stage until proven otherwise. There isn't much guessing with him. He will come out, dot up and be favourite until cheltenham imo

[Spectre]

There's also a quote somewhere where Willie has said he's a two miler. I'll see if I can dig it out.

[Runragged]

He is still the best value by far in my opinion of any horse in any race. With all we know about Salvator Mundi, who trains him, his background, owners, form etc I think 20/1 is a knocking E/W bet at this stage until proven otherwise. There isn't much guessing with him. He will come out, dot up and be favourite until cheltenham imo

I disagree at this stage. I see a 3 times raced novice for Mullins who has an RPR best of just 135. He was an advanced enough 3yo to debut in a listed race back in April 2023 but then was off the track for almost a year since. His win was in a maiden hurdle where you would struggle to find a weaker race in Ireland of similar ilk. I have so many alarm bells going off in the above statements. Potentially lenient mark currently, only needing two more starts to be eligible for the handicaps. Connections had State Man who still went handicap option when clearly is much better. Off for a year so does he have fitness issues? Will he improve from 4yo-5yo? His win was given an RPR just 5lb higher than when 6th in the Triumph. Many good French 3yos don't train on in later years. Finally how will he get on upped in class? Only 6th in the Triumph albeit off like I said for almost a year so hard to gauge just how fit and ready he was. A G1 hurdle is a much different prospect from that Maiden however.

Quite simply, I don't think it will take much for plans to change when it comes to Cheltenham. It wouldn't surprise me either if horses were to improve past him as the season goes on.

[Lobos]

...........and back down to earth we come


Great post

[SeanRock]

David Casey name dropped the Supreme at a preview evening I attended last March. Something along the lines “He’s one for the Supreme next year” with a glint in his eye!

[OverTheLast]

Celtic Dino with a nice performance there. Fantastic round of jumping.

A slight form boost for Let It Ran who won the Ascot bumper Celtic Dino was 3rd in.

Let It Rain has been very impressive twice and they knew she was a good one the way she was backed on debut ... I'm very close to having a decent go for the Mares Novice... any thoughts guys? .. Spectre any inside info .. ?

[Craigy14]

I disagree at this stage. I see a 3 times raced novice for Mullins who has an RPR best of just 135. He was an advanced enough 3yo to debut in a listed race back in April 2023 but then was off the track for almost a year since. His win was in a maiden hurdle where you would struggle to find a weaker race in Ireland of similar ilk. I have so many alarm bells going off in the above statements. Potentially lenient mark currently, only needing two more starts to be eligible for the handicaps. Connections had State Man who still went handicap option when clearly is much better. Off for a year so does he have fitness issues? Will he improve from 4yo-5yo? His win was given an RPR just 5lb higher than when 6th in the Triumph. Many good French 3yos don't train on in later years. Finally how will he get on upped in class? Only 6th in the Triumph albeit off like I said for almost a year so hard to gauge just how fit and ready he was. A G1 hurdle is a much different prospect from that Maiden however.

Quite simply, I don't think it will take much for plans to change when it comes to Cheltenham. It wouldn't surprise me either if horses were to improve past him as the season goes on.

I think what you also have to remember I think deep down WPM probably wanted to keep Salvator Mundi as a novice due to how late he got out. Whether that was deliberate or through issues we just don’t know. In my opinion I’d say it was deliberate, he maybe had a small issue that kept him back compared to others deputising over here but possibly decided at that point there was no point ruining his novice status. He had the race by the balls at that point (apart from Sir Gino). He had that many juveniles, we’ve all said numerous times he didn't seem to have too many top class novices to go hurdling this season, let him get a run at the track, some experience travelling over here and put him away for this season.

Thats the way I’m looking at it anyway. He jumped lovely in that race he won by half the track, yes very poor field but his jumping was really slick to me. He’s top on my list and I think WPM’s list.

[Lobos]

Lovely Craigy.


Feet off the ground again.......

[Quevega]

I think what you also have to remember I think deep down WPM probably wanted to keep Salvator Mundi as a novice due to how late he got out. Whether that was deliberate or through issues we just don’t know. In my opinion I’d say it was deliberate, he maybe had a small issue that kept him back compared to others deputising over here but possibly decided at that point there was no point ruining his novice status. He had the race by the balls at that point (apart from Sir Gino). He had that many juveniles, we’ve all said numerous times he didn't seem to have too many top class novices to go hurdling this season, let him get a run at the track, some experience travelling over here and put him away for this season.

Thats the way I’m looking at it anyway. He jumped lovely in that race he won by half the track, yes very poor field but his jumping was really slick to me. He’s top on my list and I think WPM’s list.

I'd be pretty sure that Salvator was kept on simmer most of the season from xmas onwards, and Willie was just watching the triumph form, including Sir Gino (same owners) - So I reckon he always had an eye on this season's novice races. He Probably only ran in the triumph as an afterthought also, to give the owner a runner after Sir Gino got pulled very late.
Easily forgiven that run I reckon.