2025 Novice Hurdlers

[JackieMoon33]

Not sure if it was Paul Nicholls or Harry Cobden who said he could be one for the Challow Hurdle. In recent years, with the exception of Captain Teague last season, Pauls Challow winners have ended up in the Ballymore. Not that any of them have gone to do well in them, to be fair.

That said, I see Teeshan is his only entry in the Persian War this coming weekend. He's another that could go Challow, I guess, though I had him down as one for the Supreme at a big price, should he be good enough.

I've said it many times that I have a feeling Regents Stroll will win the Challow before being outpaced in the Gallaghers

[ComplyOrDie]

I've said it many times that I have a feeling Regents Stroll will win the Challow before being outpaced in the Gallaghers

You'd have to say this is highly likely should he end up in the race, especially given the way he looked to be outpaced in the bumper on his final start of last season.

I've backed him at 33's, expecting the race to cut up a bit, in the hope he could land a place, and more to cover the potential field. He definitely won't be going off 33's should he run in and win the Challow.

[JackieMoon33]

You'd have to say this is highly likely should he end up in the race, especially given the way he looked to be outpaced in the bumper on his final start of last season.

I've backed him at 33's, expecting the race to cut up a bit, in the hope he could land a place, and more to cover the potential field. He definitely won't be going off 33's should he run in and win the Challow.

Yeah he'd be potential place material in the Gallaghers but I'd be way more keen on him for the AB.

[Yosser]

FWIW i have backed Regents Stroll for the Gallaghers at 40/1. That was one of the early plays back in the spring. He is still about 33/1. I think that is proper value. Paul Nicholls told Chris Giles that this horse is potentially the best one he has ever had and asked him if he was sure he wanted to sell. If PN thinks that, he is a must for both races IMO.

[JackieMoon33]

FWIW i have backed Regents Stroll for the Gallaghers at 40/1. That was one of the early plays back in the spring. He is still about 33/1. I think that is proper value. Paul Nicholls told Chris Giles that this horse is potentially the best one he has ever had and asked him if he was sure he wanted to sell. If PN thinks that, he is a must for both races IMO.

In my opinion you can transfer between the Gallaghers and Supreme but not the Gallaghers and the Albert Bartlett. So for me, he’d only ever be a ‘must’ for one of the races, not both.

[Yosser]

In my opinion you can transfer between the Gallaghers and Supreme but not the Gallaghers and the Albert Bartlett. So for me, he’d only ever be a ‘must’ for one of the races, not both.

I think it can go both ways. Trainers hold back stayers but will force them up in trip if they have to. Gidleigh Park would never run in the Supreme and was forced up due to Ballyburn. That's just a quick example but i bet there are many more. I don't see Regents Stroll ever going for a supreme but could see him lining up in the other two. It's all about opinions though and i take yours seriously Jackie, i don't agree on this one though

[JackieMoon33]

I think it can go both ways. Trainers hold back stayers but will force them up in trip if they have to. Gidleigh Park would never run in the Supreme and was forced up due to Ballyburn. That's just a quick example but i bet there are many more. I don't see Regents Stroll ever going for a supreme but could see him lining up in the other two. It's all about opinions though and i take yours seriously Jackie, i don't agree on this one though

But Gidleigh Park would never have had the legs to win a decent Gallaghers. He ended up in the race he should have been. A typical Gallaghers winner would be very competitive in the Supreme but wouldn’t be in the AB.

Look at the Gallagers winners in recent years. If there was no Gallaghers, which race would they have run in: The Supreme or the AB?

[Quevega]

But Gidleigh Park would never have had the legs to win a decent Gallaghers. He ended up in the race he should have been. A typical Gallaghers winner would be very competitive in the Supreme but wouldn’t be in the AB.

Look at the Gallagers winners in recent years. If there was no Gallaghers, which race would they have run in: The Supreme or the AB?

Yep, it's become more and more along these lines I reckon which in my book gives Regents Stroll next to no chance in the Gallaghers.
Although many placed horses in the Gallaghers might have been more competitive in the longer race.

Only winner I thought might have been more of a stayer was First Lieutenant and that was 14 years ago
And he beat Rock on Ruby on decent ground !!

[JackieMoon33]

Yep, it's become more and more along these lines I reckon which in my book gives Regents Stroll next to no chance in the Gallaghers.
Although many placed horses in the Gallaghers might have been more competitive in the longer race.

Only winner I thought might have been more of a stayer was First Lieutenant and that was 14 years ago
And he beat Rock on Ruby on decent ground !!

That is my point, the placed horses who didn't have the legs to win the Gallaghers, would likely have had a better chance in the AB. So if you have eyes for a horse genuinely winning the Gallaghers, the only other race he should be backed in is the Supreme.

[Yosser]

That is my point, the placed horses who didn't have the legs to win the Gallaghers, would likely have had a better chance in the AB. So if you have eyes for a horse genuinely winning the Gallaghers, the only other race he should be backed in is the Supreme.

That's what i was getting at Jackie apart for the Supreme part. He is never going to run in the supreme but could place in the Gallaghers or win if there is a faller etc at 40/1 (e/w BTW) but could also move up to the AB as another winning chance. Sorry, i did mean each way. At that price it's a no brainer. FWIW i think Jasmin, Jalon, Romeo (maybe) are all there to be shot at so then it comes down to how good are Kopek Des Bordes, Minella Premier, Kilgame, Koktail Divin and Jeroboam Machin if he comes this way. Regent's Stroll will likely prove the best novice hurdler in the UK and if PN thinks he is good enough to take his chance in the Gallaghers he will run him as he did with Hermes Allen (Whom i thought had no chance) Sorry Jackie i should have made that point, it is an EW bet

[charlie]

FWIW i have backed Regents Stroll for the Gallaghers at 40/1. That was one of the early plays back in the spring. He is still about 33/1. I think that is proper value. Paul Nicholls told Chris Giles that this horse is potentially the best one he has ever had and asked him if he was sure he wanted to sell. If PN thinks that, he is a must for both races IMO.

I'd never even heard of this lad then I looked up his price! 660k ffs.

As a general rule of thumb I try not to back any British trained novice hurdlers ante post, it's just not something that works out historically well. The Irish have won 22 out of the last 30 novice Grade 1 hurdles at Cheltenham and their dominance looks on the up, so I think it pays to focus on them. Look at the Gallaghers - in last 5 years 1 British trained horse has placed, just 1. IMO it pays to focus on the Irish and fight the temptation to try and find the next big thing trained here. All the numbers tell you is you'll come up short. The only exception here is Nicky, but I've wasted so many points over the years trying to find his Supreme horse and his record in the Gallagher is terrible, so again I try and avoid.

That dominance plays to our favour though in the market. British trained horses tend to be much better prices after we've seen them. Yes, you may miss out on 33's about a horse like Regents Stroll, but even if he looked awesome he might be cut to 10's whereas if it was one of Willies it would be 7/2. BMG was touted as the second coming by PN and you could back him at 7's the week before Cheltenham. This is just a personal preference, but i'd rather weigh in with 5 points at that price with a ton of information and a good idea of what will line up, than chuck a point at 33's now effectively betting in the dark. I've learnt over the years that those points here and there particularly at this time of the season add up and damage your P&L, and I say that as something who backed Shishkin at 33's (will never tire of mentioning that) and still haven't turned a profit on British trained novice hurdlers over the last 10 years!

In the case of Paul Nicholls specifically, I wouldn't touch anything of his ante post over hurdles for Cheltenham because his three favourite words appear to be 'wait for aintree'. He's a trainer you'd associate with staying chasers and he appears to look for any reason not to run horses and give them time. He avoided Cheltenham with Regents Stroll and scrapped running arguably one of his exciting novices in Caldwell Potter at all. Fair play to him, the patience approach can work well and he says what he thinks, but I think its a mistake backing any of his ante post without a really good reason to do so and by that, I mean Paul has specifically said they will go to Cheltenham.

[Runragged]

I'd never even heard of this lad then I looked up his price! 660k ffs.

As a general rule of thumb I try not to back any British trained novice hurdlers ante post, it's just not something that works out historically well. The Irish have won 22 out of the last 30 novice Grade 1 hurdles at Cheltenham and their dominance looks on the up, so I think it pays to focus on them. Look at the Gallaghers - in last 5 years 1 British trained horse has placed, just 1. IMO it pays to focus on the Irish and fight the temptation to try and find the next big thing trained here. All the numbers tell you is you'll come up short. The only exception here is Nicky, but I've wasted so many points over the years trying to find his Supreme horse and his record in the Gallagher is terrible, so again I try and avoid.

That dominance plays to our favour though in the market. British trained horses tend to be much better prices after we've seen them. Yes, you may miss out on 33's about a horse like Regents Stroll, but even if he looked awesome he might be cut to 10's whereas if it was one of Willies it would be 7/2. BMG was touted as the second coming by PN and you could back him at 7's the week before Cheltenham. This is just a personal preference, but i'd rather weigh in with 5 points at that price with a ton of information and a good idea of what will line up, than chuck a point at 33's now effectively betting in the dark. I've learnt over the years that those points here and there particularly at this time of the season add up and damage your P&L, and I say that as something who backed Shishkin at 33's (will never tire of mentioning that) and still haven't turned a profit on British trained novice hurdlers over the last 10 years!

In the case of Paul Nicholls specifically, I wouldn't touch anything of his ante post over hurdles for Cheltenham because his three favourite words appear to be 'wait for aintree'. He's a trainer you'd associate with staying chasers and he appears to look for any reason not to run horses and give them time. He avoided Cheltenham with Regents Stroll and scrapped running arguably one of his exciting novices in Caldwell Potter at all. Fair play to him, the patience approach can work well and he says what he thinks, but I think its a mistake backing any of his ante post without a really good reason to do so and by that, I mean Paul has specifically said they will go to Cheltenham.

Completely agree on all this. Would even add in the Supreme for the stats, Irish had 1st 5 home last season and in 2023 had the 1st 8! In the last five seasons only one British trainer outside of Henderson has had a horse placed in the race and that was Hales with For Pleasure, aided by Blue Lord falling at the last when booked for 2nd! Unless Henderson has something special (Shishkin, Constitution Hill & Jonbon were all strong talking horses before they ran over hurdles) then I am disregarding the British novices when it comes to the Supreme and Gallaghers.

[charlie]

Completely agree on all this. Would even add in the Supreme for the stats, Irish had 1st 5 home last season and in 2023 had the 1st 8! In the last five seasons only one British trainer outside of Henderson has had a horse placed in the race and that was Hales with For Pleasure, aided by Blue Lord falling at the last when booked for 2nd! Unless Henderson has something special (Shishkin, Constitution Hill & Jonbon were all strong talking horses before they ran over hurdles) then I am disregarding the British novices when it comes to the Supreme and Gallaghers.

Exactly. Of the 8 winning British novice hurdlers in the last decade across all novice grade 1 hurdles their average SP has been 10/1. Barring Con Hill (9/4) you could back horses like Shishkin @ 6/1. Obviously we have the benefit of hindsight and markets are tighter, but it goes to show that if you didn't back a single British trained novice all season, saved 5-10 points and waited until the day, you are going to be in a far better position taking a view at 6's than you are pray and spraying 33/1 shots.

[TigerRolllllll]

Does Nicky have anything potentially string for Suprene we know about yet?

He’s only one I look at really

stopped doing much AP on spuds race anyway

[JackieMoon33]

Does Nicky have anything potentially string for Suprene we know about yet?

He’s only one I look at really

stopped doing much AP on spuds race anyway

He’s got two unraced stores I like who could be candidates, Blue Run and Soldier Saint. There is also Minella Premier but he’s a strange one on breeding versus what he did in his point.