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Nothing mentioned for Supreme in OJA Top 40 Prospects. Mentions Minella Premier and Kingston Pride but suggests both best over 2m4.
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He has a couple of potential French recruits though would expect to be hearing much more about them than we have done. Of his bumper horses I have tipped and backed Kingston Pride at 100/1 having also followed him last year when they thought he was decent. He has the highest rating on RPR's with a 118 but that is a few pounds short of where I would want a Supreme winner to be and in that brief article with Henderson recently he wasn't even given a mention with Tradecraft being the horse he referred to from bumpers having finished 2nd to Regent's Stroll but an RPR high of 110. Not sure on any second season novices he may have?Originally posted by TigerRolllllll View PostComment
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Originally posted by TigerRolllllll View Post
The post on the two unraced stores I like of his. They were both due to run in the spring but didn't make it to the track after the ground turned good. It's possible they have a bumper campaign still but Hendo usually likes to crack on.Comment
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This is really important when assessing the novice hurdlers.Originally posted by JackieMoon33 View Post
What I always try to do is establish in my mind whether a horse is quick enough to win or place in a Supreme. RPR's are very reliable guide for this. 140+ over the minimum or intermediate trip is vital, and them I'm interested in them for the Gallaghers. Hit 150 and I'm interested in them for the Supreme. The exception then is when Mullins has horses that could go either way, and his best two are likely to be split across the two races, with his best ex-Pointer likely to be the Gallaghers horse. Again the exception is if that horse is a much slicker jumper than the ex-French, Bumper, or ex-Flat horse rated good enough for Townend to ride.
If a horse isn't at that level after 2 (or 3 runs in exceptional circumstances), they are in my Bartlett pool of horses. And frankly that pool aren't going to win the other two races, although a place is possible in a weak or small field Gallaghers.Luck is a dividend of sweat. The more I sweat, the luckier I get.Comment
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So you wait until backing them until they've hit that mark over Hurdles? Or do you back several AP and then cash them in if they don't hit that mark after 2/3 runs?Comment
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Judging on what I've just watched I don't think we"ll be seeing The Enabler over 2miles ever again. Big horse. Very green. Reckon he'll need 3 miles or a fence to be seen at his best. Just my opinion.Originally posted by JackieMoon33 View PostComment
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I don't think anyone will be rushing to back him after watching that run. A big step up in trip needed.Originally posted by Lobos View Post
given he's out early, i wonder if the Pertemps is in the back of their mind.Comment
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Yeah he looked huge! Made the winner look like a pony. 2 miles at Galway would not have been his ideal conditions but I’d have hoped he could get it done. It’s not a huge blow for the AB as I say the same thing every year: horses rarely rock up with a string of 1’s next to their name and win the AB.Originally posted by BuckingThe Trend View PostComment
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He looked a fair size today.Originally posted by BuckingThe Trend View Post
Just for some reference, ALL of Gordon's Martin Pipe Hurdle winners lost (or fell) first time out over hurdlers.
Better Days Ahead - 2m6f - Fell when travelling well but being challenged - Also lost a further 2 times before the Martin Pipe
Blow By Blow - 2m - 3rd on hurdling debut - Also lost a further two times during the season before winning the Martin Pipe
Champagne Classic - 2m4f - 2nd on hurdling debut - Also lost a further 3 times during the season before winning the Martin Pipe
If we also add in unlucky 'forum favourite' Column Of Fire his reads - 2m3f - 3rd on hurdling debut - Also lost a further 3 times (inc. 1 fall) during the season before falling in the Martin Pipe
We know Gordon is a creature of habit, just seems a rinse and repeat job here. Could end up being wrong of course.
By comparison, and I haven't done a deep dive into this, just 3 of the more recent ones (and not to support the case, but these were the first 3 that come to mind) his Bartlett hopefuls started out and won first time out over or around the intermediate trip. I looked at Stellar Story, Ginto & Death Duty, the former obviously won last seasons renewal and the other two were incredibly well supported in the market.Last edited by ComplyOrDie; 8 October 2024, 02:43 PM.Comment
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Based on today his two options would be Albert Bartlett or Martin Pipe. And I only mention the Martin Pipe because he is out so early to get the required number of runs in to qualify under the new rules. I wouldn't write off any AB slips.Comment
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Very good data point. Food for thought. Thank you COD.Originally posted by ComplyOrDie View PostComment
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Yep Machine, that was my first thought. Can't believe I'm thinking Pertemps in early OctoberOriginally posted by Faugheen_Machine View Post
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I think it's worth pointing out that, whilst it was probably not ideal The Enabler being beat on hurdlers debut, he was coming up against a very race fit horse from the flat, who is in good health, looking at his recent results.Comment
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Not too worried about him being beaten today (though not ideal) over the inadequate trip. There will be plenty to come from him stepping up. I was hoping Hills would push his 'Any Race' price out but they haven't budged. I am more worried that he is out in the first week of October but let's see what he does and where he goes with his other ones. Kish Bank next on the list.Comment
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