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You may be right. I actually hope you are coz that can be one of my hard and fast rules going forward. Narrows the field. I like trends. 33/1 seems generous though. Tempting as a cover. LOL.
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I like her name. Sounds like a popular whore from a cowboy filmOriginally posted by BuckingThe Trend View Post
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I can't disagree with you here because I've bet him for it, but "possibly a likely runner" I'm not so sure.Originally posted by Quevega View Post
decent ground at leopardstown at xmas isn't the norm, we only have to look back to last year and the ground quickly turned very testing there, having looked unlikely a few days beforehand.
My original post was me highlighting him for others, rather than putting him up as a bet for the Supreme, this doesn't mean I haven't had a go on him, because I have.
I think it far more likely he'll be going next on ground which is most suitable, arriving to the supreme unbeaten, possibly not being tried at grade 1 level, but a fair bit shorter than 50/1.
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Can’t believe you miss that pun. Sounds like a popular whorse from a cowboy filmOriginally posted by That Horse View Post
I like her name. Sounds like a popular whore from a cowboy filmComment
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Debut over 2m5f beating a Mullins stayer double downs on my theory.Originally posted by BuckingThe Trend View PostLast edited by JackieMoon33; 15 December 2024, 05:20 PM.Comment
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I’d say he’s more likely to run at Xmas than in the supreme.Originally posted by AaronLad View Post
Not really bred for a supreme
But I understand ground could scupper plansComment
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Slade steel and marine nationale wouldn't have been considered bred for a supreme either, right?Originally posted by Quevega View Post
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I was waiting for the reality to kick in.............I don't doubt your theory. I want to believe in it.Originally posted by JackieMoon33 View PostComment
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I will throw in my usual disclaimer: some of these P2P mares will develop into good horses, but for the majority of them it will be chasing over two and a half miles plus, rather than 2m1f over hurdles.Originally posted by BuckingThe Trend View PostComment
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Depends who you ask ?Originally posted by AaronLad View Post
Personally he looks a flat horse to me.
Not saying he can’t be competitive but in my opinion the better bet is as I’ve suggested
But could easily proven wrong as I’m wrong more often than right.
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Kel Histoire RPR of 115Comment
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RPR = Confirmation Bias
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Haha absolutely. I think this rings true for gambling in general. Plenty of confirmation bias spread around.Originally posted by JackieMoon33 View PostRPR = Confirmation Bias
The eye test, for example, some people see what they want to!
The only reliable information we have are the times they run (though these can also be subject to many factors), the positions they finish, the jockeys, trainers and the pedigree of said horse.
All ratings, which include OR's, RPR's, Timeform etc... and even form lines are a fair bit more subjective, IMO. Doesn't mean we don't use them though, to try and work out the puzzle.
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