2025 Novice Hurdlers

[ComplyOrDie]

The Enabler is due to run on 7th Oct at Fairyhouse. A positive in terms of wellbeing, however is he out early in the season to get the pre requisite number of runs for the Martin Pipe or Pertemps ?

Yeah, if he's declared I'd be inclined to take the TWAR price if you're a fan of his, and hopefully boost it.

[HoldenTheReins]

Does anyone think 5 runs for hurdles and 4 runs for chasers is a big ask if they are to peak in March?

Mullins doesn't have a lot out before November so you'd be looking at one run a month.

[JackieMoon33]

The Enabler is due to run on 7th Oct at Fairyhouse. A positive in terms of wellbeing, however is he out early in the season to get the pre requisite number of runs for the Martin Pipe or Pertemps ?

Is there a comment that he is due to run then or is this based on him having an entry?
The trip is as I'd have wanted but an early start would be a worry in regard to having time to get the required runs for a handicap.

[Leman14]

Does anyone think 5 runs for hurdles and 4 runs for chasers is a big ask if they are to peak in March?

Mullins doesn't have a lot out before November so you'd be looking at one run a month.

Personally, I think that we'll just see Mullins use horses with 2-3 hurdle runs from France - and then top them up to the requisite amount of runs
It will be harder for him to have multiple plot jobs - but it only takes one....

[JackieMoon33]

Does anyone think 5 runs for hurdles and 4 runs for chasers is a big ask if they are to peak in March?

Mullins doesn't have a lot out before November so you'd be looking at one run a month.

In the absence of banning novices from open handicaps as they should, I think it's a decent enough compromise.

[HoldenTheReins]

Personally, I think that we'll just see Mullins use horses with 2-3 hurdle runs from France - and then top them up to the requisite amount of runs
It will be harder for him to have multiple plot jobs - but it only takes one....

Willie doesn't plot them really, they just fall into it.

[Leman14]

Willie doesn't plot them really, they just fall into it.

Not as a first thought, but State Man was almost immediately "plotted" towards the County Hurdle after falling in his first run.
Granted, it will be harder, but he can't/won't run all his 2m novices in the Supreme. So some will naturally change direction as the season unfolds. (especially those with runs under their belts)

[Wayward Lad]

Apologies Jackie, it’s an early entry not any intel or comment on ‘due to run’. You’d think though to get the 5 runs in for a novice to run in the handicaps we would see these horses (if any this season) very early in the season. I have backed him in the AB though, so hope i am wrong in my thinking !

[Leman14]

If horses are coming out to run now, it will have been decided weeks ago (ie before the rule changes) when they decided which horses to bring back into training and when.

What I'm getting at, is that the rule change won't have altered their plans at this stage in the season.
ie - if they see him as an AB horse - that it what they'll likely aim at until proven otherwise (same as with any horse with potential) - IMO

[HoldenTheReins]

Not as a first thought, but State Man was almost immediately "plotted" towards the County Hurdle after falling in his first run.
Granted, it will be harder, but he can't/won't run all his 2m novices in the Supreme. So some will naturally change direction as the season unfolds. (especially those with runs under their belts)

4 completed runs over hurdles would've been ideal imo.

[archie]

If they see The Enabler as only an AB horse but are starting early, I'd say that the plan may be to get 2 or 3 races in before the end of the year, possibly culminating with the Dorans Pride at the Limerick Christmas meeting, then a nice break to freshen him up for Cheltenham. When they start off later the route would probably be more likely to take in the Nathaniel Lacy at the DRF.

[ComplyOrDie]

Willie doesn't plot them really, they just fall into it.

I disagree. Don't think Willie is so innocent in the role of plotting horses.

Saint Roi & Galopin Des Champs are prime examples.

Saint Roi started off out over 2m3f on very soft ground for Willie, before dropping back to win a pissy maiden over 2m and the capper couldn't slam him for that, then went and dotted up in the County off 137. Willie has only run him twice beyond the minimum since then, and that was back in 2019.

Galopin ran exclusively over 2m for Willie before the festival, despite staying on well over 2m2f at Auteuil when winning in France before joining Willie. His first time up in trip was in the Martin Pipe. He's not been dropped back to the minimum trip since then.

People slam Dan Skelton & Gordon Elliott mostly, for some enterprising placing of their horses but Willie seems to get a free pass, because well, he is Willie. A genius, for sure, but not innocent in the whole 'plotting of horses' argument.

[Quevega]

Not a lot will be decided until they do stuff on the track.
Then it'll develop as the season progresses, however I'd expect more runs from novices than usual from some yards (like Elliots) as they'd probably like as many options as possible, come the festival.

Then it'll depend on handicap marks and owners connections thoughts and jockey availability + perceived chances and likely opposition.
Like it invariably does.

Although Gigginstown end up with runners in handicaps, it's clear their preference is for graded races, and that is likely the seasonal ambition for most of their horses of sufficient ability or potential. So that's a good start for Enabler.

But backers of last years Bartlett got lucky (close to the festival) as I'm pretty sure he was down for the pipe before Croke Park (only 3 runs) had to drop out.
So it was a good call early season for sure, but was looking like being a dud/unlucky as he was earmarked as a Pipe prospect due to form and having the number of runs and a competitive mark.

Point is, (stating the obvious) you can warble on as much as you like, and worry about race plans etc, but lots of factors and things will happen along the way that aren't completely controllable.
Just need a bit of luck, alongside the thought process and research.

[Lobos]

Does anyone think 5 runs for hurdles and 4 runs for chasers is a big ask if they are to peak in March?

Mullins doesn't have a lot out before November so you'd be looking at one run a month.

Don't think Willie will bother with any of the Handicaps with his Novices. He's been pissed on by the BHA.

[HoldenTheReins]

Don't think Willie will bother with any of the Handicaps with his Novices. He's been pissed on by the BHA.

Would be interesting to see a mass boycott happen