2025 Novice Hurdlers

[JackieMoon33]

I like these Arctic Cosmos for stamina. These fuckers can stay. The Queally mare is out of him also and she will relish a step up in trip, slower pace and testing ground if it came up that way.

I'm not a huge fan of him as a sire but he does get horses who are genuine, like a battle and will stay.

[Rooster Booster]

20/1 NRNB on Derryhassen Paddy would be my play

I like these Arctic Cosmos for stamina. These fuckers can stay. The Queally mare is out of him also and she will relish a step up in trip, slower pace and testing ground if it came up that way.

[Odin]

That's one of those trends that you'd have to really want to see as a negative. Without any reason for it to be a negative...

His jumping would be a concern. Although I'll need to watch back the DRF. He seems to be heading this way though. And a returning champion bumper winner as Mullins potential first string at 25/1 would look good value at least. Certainly worse bets to be had.

I've had him in a treble with Kopek and Final Demand for micro-stakes off the back of the comments, but when I was initially watching the DRF race I thought he'd be better suited to the Ballymore as he pulled his way through the race for me (or travelled powerfully) and didn't really get home when he came through towards the end of the back straight. That said, with the exception of 1 or 2, his hurdling was considerably better I thought

[chunker86]

That's one of those trends that you'd have to really want to see as a negative. Without any reason for it to be a negative...

His jumping would be a concern. Although I'll need to watch back the DRF. He seems to be heading this way though. And a returning champion bumper winner as Mullins potential first string at 25/1 would look good value at least. Certainly worse bets to be had.

ok - id say most Graded Bumpers are run over 2 miles and favour the speedy types who end up in the Supreme and Ballymore as novice hurdlers, they might end up stayers over fences but generally not as novice hurdlers - when you combine that trend with several other key trends they start to stack up against him:

*won or placed in a graded hurdle
*run over at least 2m7 at least once before
*finished 1st or 2nd lto
*pre race RPR of at least 137
*won a race over at least 2m3
*not French bred
*no previous run in Cheltenham or Aintree Bumper

On the flip side you could argue that he's very close to removing several of those trends in that he's run over 2m6, he's finished 4th in a graded hurdle, his pre race hurdles RPR is 135, he's won a race over 2m, he finished 4th lto - and he meets several other key trends in that he's trained by Willie Mullins, he's won an Irish P2P, he's contested a graded novice hurdle, he's aged 6, he's won a non graded bumper & he's run in a Punchestown bumper.

He's not for me, not just on the trends, but visually on his performances, he's had 3 goes over hurdles, can't really jump and I'm not convinced he'll stay 3m in a Grade 1

[Benjy23]

That's one of those trends that you'd have to really want to see as a negative. Without any reason for it to be a negative...

His jumping would be a concern. Although I'll need to watch back the DRF. He seems to be heading this way though. And a returning champion bumper winner as Mullins potential first string at 25/1 would look good value at least. Certainly worse bets to be had.

[chunker86]

I am aware the Albert Bartlett can be a graveyard for Ante Post betting but when I look at the current market it is screaming "opportunity" at me and is ripe for a big price winner this year. Top of the market with b365 is The Yellow Clay7/2 who is 50/50 to run, then Final Demand 6/1 who likely won't run, then The Big Westerner 8/1, then Jet Blue 16/1 and 25/1 bar these 4. Am I mad to think Jasmin De Vaux at 33/1 AP and 25/1 NRNB is a great bet. They say you have to be a Stayer to win the Bumper. And Willies recent quote was "He'll go up in trip and could be an Albert Bartlett horse. I think he needs more time at his hurdles." His jumping so far has been sub standard for sure but they know that and will be working on it. If they can improve his jumping over next 5 weeks it looks like they are targeting the AB with him. I have convinced myself. Anyone else in the same camp ? Or am I mad ?

Only 1 in the last 20 winners have run in a graded bumper...

[JackieMoon33]

I am aware the Albert Bartlett can be a graveyard for Ante Post betting but when I look at the current market it is screaming "opportunity" at me and is ripe for a big price winner this year. Top of the market with b365 is The Yellow Clay7/2 who is 50/50 to run, then Final Demand 6/1 who likely won't run, then The Big Westerner 8/1, then Jet Blue 16/1 and 25/1 bar these 4. Am I mad to think Jasmin De Vaux at 33/1 AP and 25/1 NRNB is a great bet. They say you have to be a Stayer to win the Bumper. And Willies recent quote was "He'll go up in trip and could be an Albert Bartlett horse. I think he needs more time at his hurdles." His jumping so far has been sub standard for sure but they know that and will be working on it. If they can improve his jumping over next 5 weeks it looks like they are targeting the AB with him. I have convinced myself. Anyone else in the same camp ? Or am I mad ?

20/1 NRNB on Derryhassen Paddy would be my play

[chunker86]

So Willie says Final Demand will not go Albert as you need an experienced horse on the go from early in the season to go to the race as it's brutal.

Who does he have that fits that profile?

Not a Willie horse but Intense Approach for John McConnell fits the profile - though not a definite runner.

9 Runs over hurdles - including a 3m hurdle at Cheltenham in October, then a nice break until reappearing at Musselburgh last week where he easily won the Scottish Stayers Novice again over 3 miles - his best performance to date.

John McConnell has a bit of form producing one for the Bartlett at a big price for Caroline Ahearn with similar preps - plenty of summer experience, run at Cheltenham October Meeting, then 1 prep run in February then on to the Bartlett.

2022 - Bardenstown Lad - 3rd (20/1) - previous 2 runs 3m Cheltenham October and 3m Musselburgh Feb
2021 - Streets of Doyen - 3rd (10/1) - ran 3m Cheltenham October

Unfortunately the interview with McConnell afterwards he was a bit meh about even going to Cheltenham with this lad - but NRNB he has the right profile for this to at least run into a place.

[FinalFurlong91]

Since 2014 there has only been one single figure winner of the bartlett. Monkfish at 5/1.

There have been 3 horses win at 33/1 and indo at 50/1.

So it's pretty pointless playing the race antepost.

Il just be playing a load of the 25.0+ horses on the exchange on the day every year from now on.

[ComplyOrDie]

It's a horrible race for me, horses not good/quick enough for a Turners or Supreme who are largely untried/unproven over the trip, so pulling out a 33/1 poke is certainly not madness.
I keep coming back to Jet Blue who has C&D form and, for me, has the best piece of form in the race (boosted by Yellow Car's G2 win) but it wouldn't be a shock if one or more of those campaigned over shorter improve past him for the step up...

I played the Caroline Tisdall trixie yesterday, of Final Demand (Turners), Winbeneathmywings (Bumper) & Jet Blue (Bartlett). She's got some live ones this season.

[Istabraq]

I am aware the Albert Bartlett can be a graveyard for Ante Post betting but when I look at the current market it is screaming "opportunity" at me and is ripe for a big price winner this year. Top of the market with b365 is The Yellow Clay7/2 who is 50/50 to run, then Final Demand 6/1 who likely won't run, then The Big Westerner 8/1, then Jet Blue 16/1 and 25/1 bar these 4. Am I mad to think Jasmin De Vaux at 33/1 AP and 25/1 NRNB is a great bet. They say you have to be a Stayer to win the Bumper. And Willies recent quote was "He'll go up in trip and could be an Albert Bartlett horse. I think he needs more time at his hurdles." His jumping so far has been sub standard for sure but they know that and will be working on it. If they can improve his jumping over next 5 weeks it looks like they are targeting the AB with him. I have convinced myself. Anyone else in the same camp ? Or am I mad ?

It's a horrible race for me, horses not good/quick enough for a Turners or Supreme who are largely untried/unproven over the trip, so pulling out a 33/1 poke is certainly not madness.
I keep coming back to Jet Blue who has C&D form and, for me, has the best piece of form in the race (boosted by Yellow Car's G2 win) but it wouldn't be a shock if one or more of those campaigned over shorter improve past him for the step up...

[BuckingThe Trend]

I am aware the Albert Bartlett can be a graveyard for Ante Post betting but when I look at the current market it is screaming "opportunity" at me and is ripe for a big price winner this year. Top of the market with b365 is The Yellow Clay7/2 who is 50/50 to run, then Final Demand 6/1 who likely won't run, then The Big Westerner 8/1, then Jet Blue 16/1 and 25/1 bar these 4. Am I mad to think Jasmin De Vaux at 33/1 AP and 25/1 NRNB is a great bet. They say you have to be a Stayer to win the Bumper. And Willies recent quote was "He'll go up in trip and could be an Albert Bartlett horse. I think he needs more time at his hurdles." His jumping so far has been sub standard for sure but they know that and will be working on it. If they can improve his jumping over next 5 weeks it looks like they are targeting the AB with him. I have convinced myself. Anyone else in the same camp ? Or am I mad ?

[ComplyOrDie]

Regent's Stroll declared for the listed race at Exeter on Sunday.

Trappy enough little race with Dodger Long (form ties with Anzadam) and Alexei (impressive in two wins to date) also both declared.

In that grand scheme of Cheltenham though, whoever wins will be wanting to do it well enough.

[Craigy14]

Does anyone know if Henry Debromheads Good N Kind is in any danger of hitting a race course anytime soon? I've got a 66/1 ticket, but he's yet to see a hurdle and it's the first week of February.

The Clonmel race he sometimes uses is next week I think but I've not heard a peep.

Just cash and re back if he’s entered, if you can that is.

Hes 33/1 Turners and 50/1 Spud but even at half the price of what you have is he likely to set the world alight with no runs to date? I’d be surprised mate.

[Odin]

He won it in 2022 with a horse making it's 4th lifetime start and 2nd over hurdles!

To be fair, that horse has run once in the nearly 3 years since that race so it's reasonable to think it could be a new-ish rule