2025 Novice Hurdlers

[Faugheen_Machine]

Kawaboomga is the same price as Kopek in the NRNB market for the Turners.

Surely Kopek should be a good bit shorter so one or both of those prices are wrong.

[Runragged]

I’m surprised Kopek’s price hasn’t contracted after yesterday’s hurdle results. Kawaboomga giving it a boost with his win and the Turners ante post second fav (Potter’s) getting exposed at Cheltenham.

Of those prominent in the betting:

The New Lion - has Skelton really stumbled upon a superstar - or is it the traditional British hype fuelled by a classic cocky ride from Harry Skelton against poor rivals
Final Demand - does Willie send a potential Turners winner to debut over 2m5f at Limerick - I don’t think he does
The Yellow Clay - his Lawlors win was more a trial for the AB and I suspect that’s where he will head, esp if Kopek impresses at DRF
Kawaboomga - already beaten him
Potter’s Charm - exposed yesterday
Sixmilebridge - can’t see it
James’s Gate - of the above, the one I’d say most likely to be a factor but doubts if he will even run in this or try and take advantage of his h’cap mark
Best of the rest are all Willie’s and likely to be second/third string runners

No doubts about jockey bookings - Paul will ride Salvator in the Supreme leaving Kopek for the Turners.
Stable vibes always been very strong, Willie’s quote about ‘saving him for Xmas’ sticks in my mind, like you leave your biggest present to last because you know it’s the best.
Won on debut despite not jumping great (and the Patrick factor) which the stable don’t seem concerned about.

I think he will sit behind Kaid next weekend and pass him late on and go fav for the Turners. The current 10/1 (or 8/1 with the NRMB insurance) seems a gift. Only 6 days left to take advantage.

Obv just my thoughts and and some generalisations/assumptions included!

That's the thing about betting. He wins well and he is great value now, loses and it looks a poor price. You are basically betting on what you think will happen. Personally, I think it is a poor price currently at the 10/1 and would favour the 8/1 NRMB out of the two and hope if he is beat that he just doesn't turn up. There is a danger though he gets beat and still runs as Mullins doesn't have much else and clearly the horse is well thought of. I would rather take a WTAF bet on him, or just back him at a much shorter price once I have seen him jump again. As I've said before, the horse didn't just jump poorly, he was erratic and would have to significantly improve on that for me.

[Speedy17]

Regent's Stroll to give them something to think about in the Supreme

Yes, I keep banging the drum, but he's still 50/1.

I was looking at the market in the early hours of this morning on the exchanges, and I couldn't find a genuine British representative that I think Regent's Stroll wouldn't beat. Probably not saying much for the division, but IF Regent's Stroll is the best of the British over 2m he's not going off 50/1, that's for sure.

Looking at the actual market you've got horses going straight there off the back of a maiden win at 3rd fav

The plan for him seems to be dropping back down to 2m and I imagine he'll have another run pre festival. IF he wins that Nicholls must be looking at the division and he can't be thinking it's overly strong on what we've seen.

Romeo Coolio has the best form in the book, but even he's been beat this season.

Sorry Quevega I've quoted you, and I know you already think Regent's Stroll is a big old dopey bastard but I feel he's still hugely overpriced and I'm hoping for a serious performance next time out. Maybe even one that hits the all important 150+ RPR. I think he's capable of that.

He's 50/1 because he's crap.

[jrjr]

That's the thing about betting. He wins well and he is great value now, loses and it looks a poor price. You are basically betting on what you think will happen. Personally, I think it is a poor price currently at the 10/1 and would favour the 8/1 NRMB out of the two and hope if he is beat that he just doesn't turn up. There is a danger though he gets beat and still runs as Mullins doesn't have much else and clearly the horse is well thought of. I would rather take a WTAF bet on him, or just back him at a much shorter price once I have seen him jump again. As I've said before, the horse didn't just jump poorly, he was erratic and would have to significantly improve on that for me.

True, and especially with novices you are usually basing your bets on personal opinion because form lines don’t collide until the festival. However, at this stage of the season with Kopek the only one of the market leaders likely to have another run I think there is far more upside than downside to his price. The best NH trainer thinks he jumps ok and that is good enough for me.

[Carnage at Taunton]

Sadly I think the brief emergence of the UK novice hurdlers has probably already fizzled out, even before the Dublin festival when I think it will become a distant memory.

Up the juveniles though, still looking good in that department because the Irish have looked much of a muchness so far.

What’s wrong with the new lion?

[Carnage at Taunton]

I’m surprised Kopek’s price hasn’t contracted after yesterday’s hurdle results. Kawaboomga giving it a boost with his win and the Turners ante post second fav (Potter’s) getting exposed at Cheltenham.

Of those prominent in the betting:

The New Lion - has Skelton really stumbled upon a superstar - or is it the traditional British hype fuelled by a classic cocky ride from Harry Skelton against poor rivals
Final Demand - does Willie send a potential Turners winner to debut over 2m5f at Limerick - I don’t think he does
The Yellow Clay - his Lawlors win was more a trial for the AB and I suspect that’s where he will head, esp if Kopek impresses at DRF
Kawaboomga - already beaten him
Potter’s Charm - exposed yesterday
Sixmilebridge - can’t see it
James’s Gate - of the above, the one I’d say most likely to be a factor but doubts if he will even run in this or try and take advantage of his h’cap mark
Best of the rest are all Willie’s and likely to be second/third string runners

No doubts about jockey bookings - Paul will ride Salvator in the Supreme leaving Kopek for the Turners.
Stable vibes always been very strong, Willie’s quote about ‘saving him for Xmas’ sticks in my mind, like you leave your biggest present to last because you know it’s the best.
Won on debut despite not jumping great (and the Patrick factor) which the stable don’t seem concerned about.

I think he will sit behind Kaid next weekend and pass him late on and go fav for the Turners. The current 10/1 (or 8/1 with the NRMB insurance) seems a gift. Only 6 days left to take advantage.

Obv just my thoughts and and some generalisations/assumptions included!

Trainer said TYC is going turners after his last run,or did I dream that?
Connections have Wingmen for AB

[Runragged]

True, and especially with novices you are usually basing your bets on personal opinion because form lines don’t collide until the festival. However, at this stage of the season with Kopek the only one of the market leaders likely to have another run I think there is far more upside than downside to his price. The best NH trainer thinks he jumps ok and that is good enough for me.

You have to ask yourself, do you think he will win the Turners if he doesn't win next week? If not then you have to look at the WTAF, which at a quick look is 16/1 with Willhill. If not then you have the option of backing him twice. He is currently 9/4 for the race next week. Therefore he would need to be shorter than 5/2 after the race for the 10/1 to be value. Unless he absolutely smashes up then that is unlikely (you can always cover that eventuality by backing him to be win by a certain distance). The 16/1 is better if the horse is going to be less than 9/2 after the race. Anything bigger and you are better doing the double.

It's getting late now and horses will be going straight to Cheltenham after the DRF so the potential double is definitely something that has to be considered.

[Carnage at Taunton]

Yes I do

Thought you
might

[Quevega]

What’s wrong with the new lion?

Form and price, at the moment.
And still doubts about what he'll really find off the bridle when required.
Had JP not bought him he'd be double the current price he is, and go off bigger in the day.
It's a question of how much belief connections have on the day now as to what happens with his price, but on form alone he should be bigger, and at least 2 horses will have much better form come next Sunday.

I was fortunate to get on him after his win last time when Ladbrokes were asleep, and have also backed Potters.
But I would not be even considering backing either if the race was today. At the prices.

[Carnage at Taunton]

Form and price, at the moment.
And still doubts about what he'll really find off the bridle when required.
Had JP not bought him he'd be double the current price he is, and go off bigger in the day.
It's a question of how much belief connections have on the day now as to what happens with his price, but on form alone he should be bigger, and at least 2 horses will have much better form come next Sunday.

I was fortunate to get on him after his win last time when Ladbrokes were asleep, and have also backed Potters.
But I would not be even considering backing either if the race was today. At the prices.

Ok, so basically you don’t like the price and you have doubts which one would expect with a horse that’s won easily against horses that don’t look much.
Fair enough.
Sounded like you had written all the brits off?
Personally think he should be given the chance to prove himself against better opponents before writing off.

[Quevega]

Ok, so basically you don’t like the price and you have doubts which one would expect with a horse that’s won easily against horses that don’t look much.
Fair enough.
Sounded like you had written all the brits off?
Personally think he should be given the chance to prove himself against better opponents before writing off.

Don't worry, I'll not be stopping him from proving himself. I can't do that, it's not in my control.
But I have written him off. Which I can do.

[Carnage at Taunton]

Don't worry, I'll not be stopping him from proving himself. I can't do that, it's not in my control.
But I have written him off. Which I can do.

okey doke
Well I ain’t
See how it pans out.

[ComplyOrDie]

He's 50/1 because he's crap.

That's a well thought out response

But let me remind you, the horse that you think is 'crap' was only 7 odd lengths behind your 'good thing' for the Turners, despite pulling like a train.

He should have lost by 20+ lengths, so it doesn't bode well for The New Lion if he's only beating a crap horse by 7 lengths.

[Lobos]

Potters Charm tickets in the bin.

Fresh, was he, Nigel?

Got it horribly wrong didn't they. Should have stuck to plan A. Greedy.

[ComplyOrDie]

Got it horribly wrong didn't they. Should have stuck to plan A. Greedy.

Yeah, Nigel has come out and said as much.

Pretty much showed showed hand with him now too. Didn't like the strong enough pace amd couldn't stay on quick enough to mount any challenge. Surprised they are still thinking about the Turners, and he's one I've backed that can't cash out, so it would be in my interest for me him to at least turn up in the Turners.