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‘Is the Cheltenham Bumper form a reasonable guide to picking the following year’s Supreme and Gallagher novice hurdles winner?’
That’s the question I have been thinking for a while, so today I thought I would look back through the years and races, particularly as so many pundits when being asked about the Supreme or Gallagher ante post winner for 2025, pick horses they have seen at either the Cheltenham bumper or the end of season Punchestown bumper.
Whilst past performance isn’t the ‘be all and end all’ for forecasting the future, then it’s a pretty good starting point.
The outcome from looking at past Bumper, Supreme and Gallagher winners is that maybe we should be looking elsewhere in making our ante post picks for the Supreme and Gallagher for 2025?
In the last 20 or so years I can’t see a Cheltenham Bumper winner winning the following years Supreme, only one getting on the podium (Facile Vega)
When looking at the Gallaghers then over the same period it is better, but not great……..Envoi Allen and Sir Gerhard but that’s it!
So my take from the review is that we should look elsewhere for the Supreme winner and if looking at Jasmin De Vaux, Jason Doudaries, Romeo Coolio, The Yellow Clay or even Redemption Day then it should be Gallaghers only, even if the trainer says that they are a 2 miler (Romeo and The Yellow Clay)
I would still though suggest that the percentage call is that the winner of both races didn’t run in either of the festival bumpers and that we should look elsewhere.
Horses such as Salvador Mundi (following the Il Etait Temps route for the Supreme), Jeroboam Machin (beat Redemption day easily and surely has a fav chance for either race if fit?), Kopek Des Bordes, William Munny, Minella Premier and Harbour Highway should be on the shortlist methinks.
Could Emmett make his mark on the festival winning the Supreme with Harbour Way and Jeroboam Machin in the Gallaghers?
Would love to know whether Jeroboam Machin is healthy and ready for battle in the 2024/2025 season?
That’s the question I have been thinking for a while, so today I thought I would look back through the years and races, particularly as so many pundits when being asked about the Supreme or Gallagher ante post winner for 2025, pick horses they have seen at either the Cheltenham bumper or the end of season Punchestown bumper.
Whilst past performance isn’t the ‘be all and end all’ for forecasting the future, then it’s a pretty good starting point.
The outcome from looking at past Bumper, Supreme and Gallagher winners is that maybe we should be looking elsewhere in making our ante post picks for the Supreme and Gallagher for 2025?
In the last 20 or so years I can’t see a Cheltenham Bumper winner winning the following years Supreme, only one getting on the podium (Facile Vega)
When looking at the Gallaghers then over the same period it is better, but not great……..Envoi Allen and Sir Gerhard but that’s it!
So my take from the review is that we should look elsewhere for the Supreme winner and if looking at Jasmin De Vaux, Jason Doudaries, Romeo Coolio, The Yellow Clay or even Redemption Day then it should be Gallaghers only, even if the trainer says that they are a 2 miler (Romeo and The Yellow Clay)
I would still though suggest that the percentage call is that the winner of both races didn’t run in either of the festival bumpers and that we should look elsewhere.
Horses such as Salvador Mundi (following the Il Etait Temps route for the Supreme), Jeroboam Machin (beat Redemption day easily and surely has a fav chance for either race if fit?), Kopek Des Bordes, William Munny, Minella Premier and Harbour Highway should be on the shortlist methinks.
Could Emmett make his mark on the festival winning the Supreme with Harbour Way and Jeroboam Machin in the Gallaghers?
Would love to know whether Jeroboam Machin is healthy and ready for battle in the 2024/2025 season?
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