2025 Novice Hurdlers

[Carnage at Taunton]

Yeah i suppose the thing I thought was obvious for most the race Paul didn't leave him jump in order to try slow him down. When a horse is that keen he doesn't want to ping or leave him jump as he would have pulled himself to the front, yesterday would have been an education in a good race to settle before the big one. Missing the last few wasn't ideal but i think its just how it played out and the engine would be going low off a layoff so that plays a part, for me personally anyway I wouldn't have any worries with his jumping if I was a backer.

As you say its not a yard that schools extensively, quiet simply as schooling = risk, for him. With Mundi I wouldn't expect anything extra as its not an issue, if it was like some others they'd do a bit more.

Thanks as always R4H
Thats given me more confidence
Much appreciated

[DenmanSacre]

- No Horse wearing any type of Headgear has won since Flown in 1992 - Mundi

Slade Steel had a tongue tie on last year. Mystical Power 2nd with headgear as well.

[ComplyOrDie]

The issue I'd have with Patrick's summary of how he races is that his rivals are very likely handicappers and so why would you not let him jump and not let him go as fast as he wants to go (within reason) ? When everyone is saying they were not going any gallop anyhow, so there was room to go quicker at some stage.

If Paul was indeed tugging him back (appeared to be) before every flight (he only jumped the 4th last properly IMO), then that's hardly a good preparation for the horse mentally. And it doesn't excuse the last 2 or 3 flights either, when they were all going quicker.

The habit of taking an extra stride will harm his chances when upped in grade, this is even worse if you're running keen.

The rpr looks fair, especially as Kel Histoire was not falling further back after the last.
But there's plenty of room for improvement.

Pretty fair summary and how I see it, especially his RPR and the Kel Histoire form line.

I don't think Kel Histoire is a proper 2 miler, it's why I cashed him out for the Supreme, although I could see him being competitive if the ground came up heavy.

I really hope they go from the front in the Supreme with Salvator.

The danger with Salvator Mundi is he could ruin his chances early on with how keen he looked, although expected to be fresh given the break he was coming off of.

[Run4Home]

The issue I'd have with Patrick's summary of how he races is that his rivals are very likely handicappers and so why would you not let him jump and not let him go as fast as he wants to go (within reason) ? When everyone is saying they were not going any gallop anyhow, so there was room to go quicker at some stage.

If Paul was indeed tugging him back (appeared to be) before every flight (he only jumped the 4th last properly IMO), then that's hardly a good preparation for the horse mentally. And it doesn't excuse the last 2 or 3 flights either, when they were all going quicker.

The habit of taking an extra stride will harm his chances when upped in grade, this is even worse if you're running keen.

The rpr looks fair, especially as Kel Histoire was not falling further back after the last.
But there's plenty of room for improvement.

I would think if you left him off he'd just pull himself to the front run too free and either lose his race or learn nothing especially off the lay off. Imagine he's not the pace in a Supreme so getting him to settle behind horses was the idea of the race when he won't run again until then.

Kel i think goes up in trip, not a 2m to me.

Can see the arguement from both sides , have people who backed ante big prices v those who didn't and think hes too short now who want to take on etc so everyone can look at it differently.

I thought the most important thing was just seeing the engine and he couldn't have been anymore impressive to get himself out of trouble, considering he didn't like the ground, off a layoff, didn't jump and ran so free . Think hes a proper horse, I wouldn't be taking him on with anything outside Willies in the race myself that we've seen, suppose we'll see in March what he really has.

[Eggs]

….only 20-1 left for Workahead is with 365, a sea of Oddschecker blue.

[Quevega]

Pretty fair summary and how I see it, especially his RPR and the Kel Histoire form line.

I don't think Kel Histoire is a proper 2 miler, it's why I cashed him out for the Supreme, although I could see him being competitive if the ground came up heavy.

I really hope they go from the front in the Supreme with Salvator.

The danger with Salvator Mundi is he could ruin his chances early on with how keen he looked, although expected to be fresh given the break he was coming off of.

As long as something goes along at a decent pace then he should be fine to go away at his own pace and this should help his jumping. It's just whether he's actually good enough after that, which in my opinion is open to question, so his price looks low enough right now.

The 2 mile race in Dublin is normally a much stronger race and usually provides more solid form.
Kaid is the most likely winner of that and then to front run in the supreme - but could get beat at Dublin.
He's also prone to throwing in an extra stride also. But looks to have more scope over a hurdle than Salvator based on this year's evidence.

I had Kel at 66's and cashed for money back yesterday.

[EnvoiAlien]

if he wasn't one of Willies no one would be talking positive of that run yesterday,and any suggestion of 5/1 or less would be getting laughed at, I really hope he runs again before the supreme but understand that time is tight,feels odd saying a second season novice with 4 runs under his belt still needs more experience of how to race but here we are.

[Quevega]

I would think if you left him off he'd just pull himself to the front run too free and either lose his race or learn nothing especially off the lay off. Imagine he's not the pace in a Supreme so getting him to settle behind horses was the idea of the race when he won't run again until then.

Kel i think goes up in trip, not a 2m to me.

Can see the arguement from both sides , have people who backed ante big prices v those who didn't and think hes too short now who want to take on etc so everyone can look at it differently.

I thought the most important thing was just seeing the engine and he couldn't have been anymore impressive to get himself out of trouble, considering he didn't like the ground, off a layoff, didn't jump and ran so free . Think hes a proper horse, I wouldn't be taking him on with anything outside Willies in the race myself that we've seen, suppose we'll see in March what he really has.

Yeah - I'm on at 20's.
He'd be my best winner of the more likely runners, unless Kaid steps up.

But to be as bullish as some, I'd have wanted a dominant run against that lot.

Don't get me wrong - Paul is paid to make the decisions during the race, and had the horse not got him out of trouble (with his engine) and he'd lost that race -then questions would have been asked about not letting him go on.

But as regards winning that race then Paul's choices were proven to be the right ones.
I suppose if he'd let him jump a little more and tried to keep a hold in between hurdles we'll never know how this would have looked. And allowing him to go from the front if he's jumped there, we won't know that either.

I just have my doubts with all the jewellery he wears personally, and I'm probably unfairly comparing him to other Mullins horses in the past who would have just bombed on at some point and beat that lot a distance.

[Guinness Village]

Has a second season novice hurdler ever won a novice race at the festival?

[EnvoiAlien]

Has a second season novice hurdler ever won a novice race at the festival?

Not sure, I'm sure Mr Gaultstats would be able to help with that question, sure he is here just not sure of his username.

[Liammet]

Has a second season novice hurdler ever won a novice race at the festival?

Off the top of my head Let’s Dance ran in the Triumph and then won the Mares Novice Hurdle the following year

[chunker86]

Slade Steel had a tongue tie on last year. Mystical Power 2nd with headgear as well.

Think Headgear refers to Blinkers / Hood / Cheekpieces rather than tongue tie.

And as for Mystical....he didn't win - we're not here for runners up!!

[Exar Essay]

Has a second season novice hurdler ever won a novice race at the festival?

Vautour and Klassical Dream are two who leap to mind.

[On The Fringe]

Has a second season novice hurdler ever won a novice race at the festival?

Let's Dance won Mares Novices Hurdle after running in Triumph the season before

[Run4Home]

Yeah - I'm on at 20's.
He'd be my best winner of the more likely runners, unless Kaid steps up.

But to be as bullish as some, I'd have wanted a dominant run against that lot.

Don't get me wrong - Paul is paid to make the decisions during the race, and had the horse not got him out of trouble (with his engine) and he'd lost that race -then questions would have been asked about not letting him go on.

But as regards winning that race then Paul's choices were proven to be the right ones.
I suppose if he'd let him jump a little more and tried to keep a hold in between hurdles we'll never know how this would have looked. And allowing him to go from the front if he's jumped there, we won't know that either.

I just have my doubts with all the jewellery he wears personally, and I'm probably unfairly comparing him to other Mullins horses in the past who would have just bombed on at some point and beat that lot a distance.

Yeah all makes sense, I do think a lot of the noise/prices is driven by what they know/see inside the walls to be honest, which obviously is impossibile to account for.

Yeah proper clash at DRF with those 2 boys, really like those 2 horses. Think Kopek does him, Kaid trys to front run a Supreme and Kopek 2 4 but all total guessing

All the jewelery is never a good sign for sure, but managed to date.