2025 Novice Hurdlers

[Carnage at Taunton]

Think we could be looking at a 6-8 runner Supreme looking at the market. The top few we kind of already know and there is hardly anything in the mid pack, let alone the rags.

Think you may well be right.

[HoldenTheReins]

Unfortunately there are 3 extra handicaps this year

Bookies will be delighted

Yep, bet the bookies are loving the changes

[Odin]

Last Kingdom runs today 1248 Punchestown. Like several of Willie's, he jumped like he didn't know what a hurdle was on debut. Be interesting to see if he's improved now, with respect to Kopek who ran around the same time at Xmas and Karoline Banbou who ran just before Xmas, as well as any others anyone wants to throw into the mix as poor jumpers

[Exar Essay]

In my opinion, the Supreme field is likely to be Salvator Mundi, Romeo Coolio, Workahead, *Kel Histoire/Kaid D'Authie, William Munny, Royal Infantry, and Kiss Will (or another one Mullins gets out late).

Also, we know that those at the head of the market are likely to go straight there. The only meaningful thing to determine is whether Kaid D'Authie or Kel Histoire go here.

On that basis, I've taken a stab at the tissue and think prices are likely to be:

* Salvator Mundi - 2/1
* Romeo Coolio - 5/2
* Kel Histoire - 6/1
* Workahead - 6/1
* Royal Infantry - 10/1
* William Munny - 16/1
* Kiss Will - 16/1

That gives an overround of 110%.

You could also get a couple of social British runners that finished down the field in the Formby, but they'll be any price you like. Or Laafi (unlikely given no DRF entry) is backable now at 40/1.

The JP decision aside, unless there's a major shake up and other things start being redirected here, I really think there's value wherever you want it. Whilst on the face of it, some of the prices look short, I think given that we know the likely make up of the race this far out, the prices are actually very fair.

If you bet all of the horses listed above NRNB with Hills even, you'd get an overround of 70% and secure a probable profit.

Even if Kaid D'Authie wins at the DRF 10 lengths on the bridle and goes even money favourite for this, there's very little chance the Romeo Coolio is less than 8/1 on the day, or even the 6/1 with NRNB. Likewise, despite there being a view that the bookies overreacted to Salvator Mundi's win yesterday, he won't go off bigger than 4/1 or 3/1 NRNB even if Kaid D'Authie sluices up and comes here.

However, the two that really stick out to me at the prices are Workahead (25/1) and Romeo Coolio (8/1), particularly the latter given he's a fair chance of being the only Grade One winner in the race and having the highest RPR in the race by some distance. If you're thinking about getting them on side, I think now is the time. Their price will only go one way.

[Craigy14]

I know the Mundi debate will rumble on, I get the price he is now is short with a view to what he did wrong yesterday (most are on at a lot bigger), for me, to do all that and still win is the sign of a good horse imo.

The question I want to ask, is why do people think jumping on Romeo Coolio is a better bet than Mundi? I get he’s a bigger price but he’s still single digits (8/1 best 6/1 lowest). Was only 2 starts back he was beat by a handicapper in a Grade 2 off a slow run affair (same as Mundis race yesterday) and then improved for a faster pace (for all the fog didn’t help but only 0.7 seconds off standard pace wise). He couldn’t win that Royal Bond and jumped better than Mundi did, wasn’t keen etc either. Mundi won despite stuff being against him whether it be his own doing or other circumstances.

[archie]

Having had time to reflect on yesterday, if connections are unconcerned about Salvator Mundi's jumping then so am I. Run4Home will know better but, if his previous schooling was ok, I'd be surprised if they do anything extra with him on the basis of yesterday and will move on as scheduled to get him cherry ripe for March.
Looking at the potential opposition, I'd expect him to start a short priced favourite so, in my view, 3/1 NRNB is a very fair price.

[jrjr]

I know the Mundi debate will rumble on, I get the price he is now is short with a view to what he did wrong yesterday (most are on at a lot bigger), for me, to do all that and still win is the sign of a good horse imo.

The question I want to ask, is why do people think jumping on Romeo Coolio is a better bet than Mundi? I get he’s a bigger price but he’s still single digits (8/1 best 6/1 lowest). Was only 2 starts back he was beat by a handicapper in a Grade 2 off a slow run affair (same as Mundis race yesterday) and then improved for a faster pace (for all the fog didn’t help but only 0.7 seconds off standard pace wise). He couldn’t win that Royal Bond and jumped better than Mundi did, wasn’t keen etc either. Mundi won despite stuff being against him whether it be his own doing or other circumstances.

I'm on the same page with Romeo. For all he improved at Xmas, I can't get past the Royal Bond run. No interest in him from an each way angle at 8/1 and fully expect one of WPM's to be better than him.

[Benjy23]

I've seen Workahead 25s mentioned a few times over the last couple of days, where is this? 20s was the best I could see yesterday. Even that's probably fair, given we know he'll head there now and in a likely small field.

[Istabraq]

I know the Mundi debate will rumble on, I get the price he is now is short with a view to what he did wrong yesterday (most are on at a lot bigger), for me, to do all that and still win is the sign of a good horse imo.

I tend to agree, and I'm intrigued by the language coming from connections, they appeared unconcerned and dismissive of criticism.
I got the impression what they wanted to say was 'judge us after the Supreme', so with a fairly high level of comfort/confidence I think archie isn't wrong, could easily see him go off 7/4 on the day...

[CJW]

Interesting Paul mentions ground countless times in his post race interview, describing it as 'dead' ground. (Salvator Mundi) Noting that he'd take to better ground and even 'wetter' ground would see improvements. Seems conclusive that conditions were another negative against him.

Think we have to remember the week/weekends weather wasn't the best with meetings being called off.

Taking this specifically into account being 4th turning for home and opening up to go past for the win potentially gives us a clue into his raw ability.

Whether or not everything clicks on the day is another question but thought I would post some thoughts here.

He'll no doubt have to improve but the signs are there he has the ability to do so.

[Eggs]

I've seen Workahead 25s mentioned a few times over the last couple of days, where is this? 20s was the best I could see yesterday. Even that's probably fair, given we know he'll head there now and in a likely small field.

…odds have shortened since yesterday and now a best 20-1.

[Carnage at Taunton]

Pretty unlikely I know, but as he don’t seem to have anything this year I was hoping that Hendo would think about one of his three mares for this.
I was quite taken with Kientzheim’s performance.
No idea how good she could be though !!

[Carnage at Taunton]

Interesting Paul mentions ground countless times in his post race interview, describing it as 'dead' ground. (Salvator Mundi) Noting that he'd take to better ground and even 'wetter' ground would see improvements. Seems conclusive that conditions were another negative against him.

Think we have to remember the week/weekends weather wasn't the best with meetings being called off.

Taking this specifically into account being 4th turning for home and opening up to go past for the win potentially gives us a clue into his raw ability.

Whether or not everything clicks on the day is another question but thought I would post some thoughts here.

He'll no doubt have to improve but the signs are there he has the ability to do so.

No doubt about the engine and ability to quicken, that was impressive considering.
Had he settled and jumped better he would have won much more comfortably.

[darlojim]

And still we wait for Kiss Will

Funiculi Funicula declared @ Clonmel over 2m.

Thought he was given a lovely introduction @ Auteuil last season

[ComplyOrDie]

Workahead 25/1 - I feel has been massively overlooked. He's not the right age, but he couldn't have been anymore impressive in his maiden win over the Christmas period, in what looked a decent field (William Munny & Redemption Day were in the race). He got an RPR of 133, and this is how bias the markets are, Kopek come out won over the same C&D on the same day, recording a lower RPR, and he's only a 12/1 shot for the Supreme. Workahead was, of course, beat on debut, by Jasmin De Vaux, but Henry works back from the festival with his better horses and I think we'll see plenty of progression with this lad (as shown from his debut run to his run over Christmas). I expect to see him line up at the DRF next in the 2 miler, for all that he could go out in trip, looking at his breeding and how well he stayed on LTO. The Supreme field is likely to break up a bit, I don't think the JP horses will all go, so you can remove at least one of them from the market, Kopek could go out in trip given how Jasmin De Vaux has run and should Salvator win, then suddenly you're left with Workahead third/fourth in the betting.

I see a few jumping on the Workahead bandwagon now connections have said he'll go straight to the Supreme, but, IMO at least, he should have been on peoples minds before anything was said.

Henry always works back from a target, like a fair few trainers do, to be fair, but it does mean you can excuse a debut performance and in Workaheads case, that's exactly what you have to do.

I see the 25's are now gone. I expect he'll be the 'wise guys' value pick as we get closer and closer to the festival now too, as he represents a bit of E/W value for a trainer who won the race last season.

20/1 is still fair, IMO, given Salvator Mundi didn't exactly blow us away yesterday.