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Exciting day coming up on Sunday! As with most of the Forum, I'll be hoping (expectantly) that Salvator delivers the goods to verify our ante-post confidence in him. Ahead of that run, and largely to reassure myself, I listed in my head the reasons I thought he justified that confidence. It went along these lines:
1, Has a key form link with Sir Gino, (potentially) the most talented horse we've seen since the Hill
2, WPM more or less held him back a year for this year's novice season
3, Has had loads of time at Closutton to settle in, acclimatise, and strengthen
4, Has Cheltenham experience
5, Has big race at Cheltenham experience
6, Recorded the best debut RPR for a novice this season
7, Will have the best jockey on his back
8, His opponents this year look decidedly average
9, We know he is well recovered from his set-back and has been quietly working away at home (thanks R4H)
Overall, you couldn't have picked a better year for SM. His delayed return has kept his price up. If he delivers Sunday he will go v short. I was going to say, a few days left to double down but I suspect many of us have gone past that stage and will be trebling down and more.
Exciting day coming up on Sunday! As with most of the Forum, I'll be hoping (expectantly) that Salvator delivers the goods to verify our ante-post confidence in him. Ahead of that run, and largely to reassure myself, I listed in my head the reasons I thought he justified that confidence. It went along these lines:
1, Has a key form link with Sir Gino, (potentially) the most talented horse we've seen since the Hill
2, WPM more or less held him back a year for this year's novice season
3, Has had loads of time at Closutton to settle in, acclimatise, and strengthen
4, Has Cheltenham experience
5, Has big race at Cheltenham experience
6, Recorded the best debut RPR for a novice this season
7, Will have the best jockey on his back
8, His opponents this year look decidedly average
9, We know he is well recovered from his set-back and has been quietly working away at home (thanks R4H)
Overall, you couldn't have picked a better year for SM. His delayed return has kept his price up. If he delivers Sunday he will go v short. I was going to say, a few days left to double down but I suspect many of us have gone past that stage and will be trebling down and more.
Anyway, UP THE MUNDI!!!
Hard to distinguish the facts from the opinions there…you fit right in
The Salvator thing has some sound rationale but it is fucking madness in my opinion going over board on any novice hurdler.
Im not sure if I want him to be very good or not. I’d like members to be successful but sometimes it’s good to learn lessons.
The French form is good but that doesn’t always follow cos they’re so young.
The maiden looked great but it was a Tipperary maiden in may for fucks sake
most of the horses in that race are now in my grandson’s gluepot
The best hope is the yard seem happy
just got to do it on the track now
The Salvator thing has some sound rationale but it is fucking madness in my opinion going over board on any novice hurdler.
Im not sure if I want him to be very good or not. I’d like members to be successful but sometimes it’s good to learn lessons.
I don't learn lessons....Annamix, Senewalk, the list probably goes on and on too
Im so struggling with this race....nothing has run to near the levels normally look for and the prices aren't great
Anyone got any pearls of wisdom to share?
…..decent race on Saturday at Fairyhouse might help. I put up a case for Sixandahalf in this months Yankee thread and I’m hoping she can put herself forward if she’s declared and racing goes ahead.
Im so struggling with this race....nothing has run to near the levels normally look for and the prices aren't great
Anyone got any pearls of wisdom to share?
I’m hoping Riskabahia appears soon. Ricci was talking about her and Sainte Lucie (juvenile) a few weeks back and said Riskabahia is the one they’re most excited about. Obviously Lucie has come out and bolted up since so Riskabahia obviously one to look out for. Currently 50s with bet365
I think the majority of the forum are hoping Salvator Mundi sluices up at the weekend, but what if he doesn't?
Alternatives?
The obvious would be Romeo Coolio, Kopek Des Bordes & the JP pair, but I feel there are two at bigger prices that could be backed with a decent chance (I have the pair backed).
Workahead 25/1 - I feel has been massively overlooked. He's not the right age, but he couldn't have been anymore impressive in his maiden win over the Christmas period, in what looked a decent field (William Munny & Redemption Day were in the race). He got an RPR of 133, and this is how bias the markets are, Kopek come out won over the same C&D on the same day, recording a lower RPR, and he's only a 12/1 shot for the Supreme. Workahead was, of course, beat on debut, by Jasmin De Vaux, but Henry works back from the festival with his better horses and I think we'll see plenty of progression with this lad (as shown from his debut run to his run over Christmas). I expect to see him line up at the DRF next in the 2 miler, for all that he could go out in trip, looking at his breeding and how well he stayed on LTO. The Supreme field is likely to break up a bit, I don't think the JP horses will all go, so you can remove at least one of them from the market, Kopek could go out in trip given how Jasmin De Vaux has run and should Salvator win, then suddenly you're left with Workahead third/fourth in the betting.
Regent's Stroll 100/1 - A wild, and possibly unlikely swing at a Paul Nicholls big priced horse. Huge reputation, the yard say he's their best novice, and his performance on debut over hurdles would make you understand why. He made an absolute howler at the second last hurdle, but gathered himself together and 'strolled' up by 9 1/2 lengths. This distance could have been 15+ had it not been for that mistake. He recorded a big RPR of 130. He then went and ran in the Challow Hurdle, where he barely settled when held up (a tactic I'm pretty sure didn't play to his strengths) yet was only beaten a little over 7 lengths. By the sounds of it they are keen to drop him back in trip and given the lack of UK horses in this division over this trip (The New Lion & Potters Charm are the first two in the market for the UK ), I can see him playing a big part in the 2m division, up until the festival at least. I'd be worried they'll not bother going to the festival at all with him, especially if we see something special from Salvator Mundi over the weekend, but failing that they may just take their chance.
I think the majority of the forum are hoping Salvator Mundi sluices up at the weekend, but what if he doesn't?
Alternatives?
The obvious would be Romeo Coolio, Kopek Des Bordes & the JP pair, but I feel there are two at bigger prices that could be backed with a decent chance (I have the pair backed).
Workahead 25/1 - I feel has been massively overlooked. He's not the right age, but he couldn't have been anymore impressive in his maiden win over the Christmas period, in what looked a decent field (William Munny & Redemption Day were in the race). He got an RPR of 133, and this is how bias the markets are, Kopek come out won over the same C&D on the same day, recording a lower RPR, and he's only a 12/1 shot for the Supreme. Workahead was, of course, beat on debut, by Jasmin De Vaux, but Henry works back from the festival with his better horses and I think we'll see plenty of progression with this lad (as shown from his debut run to his run over Christmas). I expect to see him line up at the DRF next in the 2 miler, for all that he could go out in trip, looking at his breeding and how well he stayed on LTO. The Supreme field is likely to break up a bit, I don't think the JP horses will all go, so you can remove at least one of them from the market, Kopek could go out in trip given how Jasmin De Vaux has run and should Salvator win, then suddenly you're left with Workahead third/fourth in the betting.
Regent's Stroll 100/1 - A wild, and possibly unlikely swing at a Paul Nicholls big priced horse. Huge reputation, the yard say he's their best novice, and his performance on debut over hurdles would make you understand why. He made an absolute howler at the second last hurdle, but gathered himself together and 'strolled' up by 9 1/2 lengths. This distance could have been 15+ had it not been for that mistake. He recorded a big RPR of 130. He then went and ran in the Challow Hurdle, where he barely settled when held up (a tactic I'm pretty sure didn't play to his strengths) yet was only beaten a little over 7 lengths. By the sounds of it they are keen to drop him back in trip and given the lack of UK horses in this division over this trip (The New Lion & Potters Charm are the first two in the market for the UK ), I can see him playing a big part in the 2m division, up until the festival at least. I'd be worried they'll not bother going to the festival at all with him, especially if we see something special from Salvator Mundi over the weekend, but failing that they may just take their chance.
On your point regarding Kopek did I not see someone post something about Kopek posting a very similar time to Workahead even though he didn't jump a hurdle?
Surely if Salvator doesn't perform Kopek comes here and you would like to think his jumping improves and he comes on for the run, although Jasmin's didn't.
On your point regarding Kopek did I not see someone post something about Kopek posting a very similar time to Workahead even though he didn't jump a hurdle?
Surely if Salvator doesn't perform Kopek comes here and you would like to think his jumping improves and he comes on for the run, although Jasmin's didn't.
Great post and I like the Regents Stroll angle.
Yeah, the times were almost identical but Workahead carried 5lbs more, hence the RPR difference
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