2025 Novice Hurdlers

[JackieMoon33]

At least it's a very competitive Lawlors field. Let's hope it's on.

[Birds Nest]

Think we have to talk about the ground for him as well. He won his maiden on soft, but recent two performances have come on good to soft along with his bumper run, whilst he was pulled three times prior to bumper debut on account of soft ground. There is some evidence in breeding to back this up as well. His dam never raced (According to RP) but her progeny has shown a preference for better ground also. El Presente top 11 runs according to RPR's came on good or faster! All five wins under rules also came on good or faster ground. Full sister Kateira did win on soft at the end of last season, though she has mainly raced on good to soft or faster with 3 of the 4 times she raced on soft coming in her 4 worst performances (according to RPR again). She was also a non runner on account of ground when due to run on soft as a novice. Another half brother in Blairs Cove saw his 6 top runs come on good ground! Whilst I am sure he would have no problem handling softer ground, it may be a case that he would handle faster conditions better than most and therefore softer ground would bring other horses into the equation more.

I know its nor an exact science and i take your point but imo kayf tara's are softer the better for me, there are exceptions of course but generally i would think KT is quite well known as a soft ground sire.

[That Horse]

and the way he quickens is redolent of a Champion Hurdle horse.

In case anyone else was wondering,

adjective
1. Having or emitting an odor or fragrance; aromatic.
2. Suggestive; reminiscent.
"a campaign redolent of machine politics."
3. Diffusing odor or fragrance; spreading sweet scent; scented; odorous; smelling; -- usually followed by of.


He stinks of being a champion hurdle horse

[YoungHustler]

My only point here is that he seems, to me at least, a slightly different type to those that have gone before. I think he holds out more hope of breaking the hoodoo than a Captain Teague or Stage Star or Hermes Allen or Bravemansgame.

I very much agree with you and think he does have more pace than recent Challow winners. He's very slick over his hurdles imo, doesn't pull if it's a slow pace, can quicken, he does seem to have it all. The best recent Challow winner and best of the British imo.

However, there still could be a few better Irish ones and I'm clinging that Kopek is the best of them and goes to the Turners!

[Runragged]

I know its nor an exact science and i take your point but imo kayf tara's are softer the better for me, there are exceptions of course but generally i would think KT is quite well known as a soft ground sire.

Well if it is well known I would argue that people are ill informed. I would also argue that the exception is actually the other way around.

I have taken the top 20 progeny of Kayf Tara according to RPR's and looked at the highest rating of each. Like you say it is not an exact science, however, this is what I found with regards the ground for their best performance.:

9/20 - Good
5/20 - Good to soft
4/20 - Soft
1/20 - Heavy
1/20 - Yielding

I can dive deeper into it as well, Top rated was Thistlecrack who has 3 of his top 4 on good to soft or faster. Edwardstone next is a mixed bag, clear top was his win in the Tingle Creek on good to soft though next 2 came on heavy. Special Tiara was a proper decent ground horse. Top 6 performances came on good to soft or faster. Edwulf was then an outlier who was at best with the mud flying. However, we then have Tea For Two whose clear best was on good ground when winning the Betway Bowl and whose 7 of top 10 runs came on good to soft or faster. Finally, next highest rated performer was Secret Investor who largely raced on good to soft or faster and from his 21 best runs, just one came on soft ground...

For the comparison interest, I took last years leading jumps sire Walk In The Park and looked at his top 20 progeny according to RPR and found this:

12/20 - Soft
5/20 - Good
1/20 - Good to soft
1/20 - Yielding
1/20 - Yielding to soft

So, when you factor in the record of the dam progeny when it comes to better ground, I think it is a pretty good assumption that The New Lion handles those conditions better than many. Like I said, it doesn't mean he doesn't handle soft but I think when he races on softer ground then there will be many better bred for conditions making it a closer match.

[ComplyOrDie]

At least it's a very competitive Lawlors field. Let's hope it's on.

Looks an absolute belter!

[Exar Essay]

In case anyone else was wondering,

adjective
1. Having or emitting an odor or fragrance; aromatic.
2. Suggestive; reminiscent.
"a campaign redolent of machine politics."
3. Diffusing odor or fragrance; spreading sweet scent; scented; odorous; smelling; -- usually followed by of.


He stinks of being a champion hurdle horse

Perhaps faint whiff rather than stinking …

[Birds Nest]

Well if it is well known I would argue that people are ill informed. I would also argue that the exception is actually the other way around.

I have taken the top 20 progeny of Kayf Tara according to RPR's and looked at the highest rating of each. Like you say it is not an exact science, however, this is what I found with regards the ground for their best performance.:

9/20 - Good
5/20 - Good to soft
4/20 - Soft
1/20 - Heavy
1/20 - Yielding

I can dive deeper into it as well, Top rated was Thistlecrack who has 3 of his top 4 on good to soft or faster. Edwardstone next is a mixed bag, clear top was his win in the Tingle Creek on good to soft though next 2 came on heavy. Special Tiara was a proper decent ground horse. Top 6 performances came on good to soft or faster. Edwulf was then an outlier who was at best with the mud flying. However, we then have Tea For Two whose clear best was on good ground when winning the Betway Bowl and whose 7 of top 10 runs came on good to soft or faster. Finally, next highest rated performer was Secret Investor who largely raced on good to soft or faster and from his 21 best runs, just one came on soft ground...

For the comparison interest, I took last years leading jumps sire Walk In The Park and looked at his top 20 progeny according to RPR and found this:

12/20 - Soft
5/20 - Good
1/20 - Good to soft
1/20 - Yielding
1/20 - Yielding to soft

So, when you factor in the record of the dam progeny when it comes to better ground, I think it is a pretty good assumption that The New Lion handles those conditions better than many. Like I said, it doesn't mean he doesn't handle soft but I think when he races on softer ground then there will be many better bred for conditions making it a closer match.

Kayf taras highest strike rate is on soft ground, youre looking at a select group of horses, atr, geegeez,racing post numerous sites ref...kevin iddiols exvellent chelty sires is also a good ref....its nice research youve done and put in some good effort . Lets agree to disagree its just an opinion.

[Killiney]

ComplyOrDie Sorry - I can’t quote your post for some reason.

The only thing I’d say in respect of your Challow winners point, which is a hell of a hoodoo to break by the way, is how many of them would have had even a 5% chance of running in a Champion Hurdle the following year? They’re all future chasers. The New Lion is a different type of horse to most winners of the Challow and looks amply suited to a Ballymore (and maybe a Champion Hurdle next year).

The ground may also be a factor. Most Challows are run of soft or heavy ground. This year was much better ground. Perhaps that will affect how The New Lion goes in the Ballymore.

Edit: To add to the ground point, only two Challows have been run on ground described as better than good in the 10 preceding this years. They were won by Champ and Mesiree Des Obeaux who are arguably the Challow winners to have run with the most credit.

So pleased you made that point about the ground (I have done so recently but this trend is a strong one and members understandably hold on to it). I like to try and unpick trends if I can. The Challow does not come close to the festival so that’s not an explanation. But the ground surely is. You quite rightly point out that many of the Challows are run on poor ground and a hard race in that ground not only leaves a mark but is not guaranteed to show a horse in the best light. This year is different the ground was g-s and he did not appear to have a hard race. It’s rare you can say that about a Challow winner and I’m happy to forget the stat trend on this occasion.

[Runragged]

Kayf taras highest strike rate is on soft ground, youre looking at a select group of horses, atr, geegeez,racing post numerous sites ref...kevin iddiols exvellent chelty sires is also a good ref....its nice research youve done and put in some good effort . Lets agree to disagree its just an opinion.

Yes, I have looked at the best 20 horses he has sired and looked at the ground conditions for those progeny to perform at their best. I don't care about the poorer horses or the day to day runnings. I am looking at the highest standard of horse and what it takes for them to run to their highest ability. The fact that 70% did so on good to soft or faster, compared to just 35% (If allowing the yielding but not the yielding to soft) of the leading current jump sire to me is significant. If you want to disagree then thats fine, would rather people see the true facts so they could make up their own mind.

[AaronLad]

Looks an absolute belter!

Until the result doesn't suit?
then I bet it'll be. " wait for the drf"

[ComplyOrDie]

Until the result doesn't suit?
then I bet it'll be. " wait for the drf"

Nah, it looks a solid race. I've got a few in there covered for different races and plan on getting one or two onside with TWAF, so chances are the result will suit

Obviously I am fully expecting Jasmin to win, however, the way the weather is looking it may be nothing gets the chance anyway!

[AaronLad]

Nah, it looks a solid race. I've got a few in there covered for different races and plan on getting one or two onside with TWAF, so chances are the result will suit

Obviously I am fully expecting Jasmin to win, however, the way the weather is looking it may be nothing gets the chance anyway!

Yeah it does look quality, I was only jesting.
let's hope we get a change in the weather *sunshine emoji here*

[Exar Essay]

Until the result doesn't suit?
then I bet it'll be. " wait for the drf"

This is a fair point though. There will be at least 3 form lines going into Cheltenham, for the Supreme and Ballymore (Lawlors, DRF, Moscow Flyer). There could also be a fourth in the Munster Hurdle too. It will be interesting to see how they all figure going in.

[DenmanSacre]

Yes, I have looked at the best 20 horses he has sired and looked at the ground conditions for those progeny to perform at their best. I don't care about the poorer horses or the day to day runnings. I am looking at the highest standard of horse and what it takes for them to run to their highest ability. The fact that 70% did so on good to soft or faster, compared to just 35% (If allowing the yielding but not the yielding to soft) of the leading current jump sire to me is significant. If you want to disagree then thats fine, would rather people see the true facts so they could make up their own mind.

If we look at his top progeny:

Thistlecrack - at his best, he achieved 170+ from good to heavy so ground was irrelevant for him
Edwardstone - another who got high ratings over a multitude of ground descriptions. Ground irrelevant for him.
Special Tiara - mainly good to soft but rating of 165 on soft
Planet of Sound - best ratings on better ground. Rarely raced on soft or worse
Identity Thief - ratings generally better on softer ground, though one good rating on yielding.
Edwulf - best two ratings on soft and heavy.
Tea for Two - 160+ on good and soft
Thyme Hill - 160+ on all ground descriptions
Secret Investor - best ratings on better ground
Blaklion - 160+ on better and heavy ground. Ground versatile
Master Tommytucker - 160+ on good and soft.

Most of them are ground versatile - I don't think there's a bias towards better ground or softer ground. To be honest, I think most horses are ground versatile (look at Lark in the Mornin and Absurde winning at Cheltenham this year when supposedly only acting on good ground) and the more important aspect to most horses performing at their best is the pace in the race.

For The New Lion, he's shown he can settle and win races that are steady early on, which is how the Turners tends to be run. I don't think the ground, whether it's heavy or good, will be an inconvenience. It will just be whether he's actually good enough, which I have my doubts. I'd fancy Potter to beat him and there'd be a couple of Irish horses I'd expect to be better.