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He's only a bridle horse because he was so much better than the others he beat. I don't think he is a bridle horse and my first interest in him was seeing how he won his bumper. I loved the way he put his head down and wanted to race when asked. His first win at Newbury also wasn't a bridle win as the race was slowly run and turned into a sprint meaning he needed to show he wanted to win and did so when asked. Unfortunately I was slightly disappointed and cashed half my stake on him at decent odds after that race!
I'd really like Regents Stroll to turn up because if he relaxed like in his debut, i think he could easily turn the form.
I get your point, but to me I still have doubts that he can quicken that much off his cruising speed when he's up against much stronger rivals.
A lot of horses that travel like that are going pretty close to as fast as they can go. I love horses like that personally, they're just cooler.
But we'll see.
I get your point, but to me I still have doubts that he can quicken that much off his cruising speed when he's up against much stronger rivals.
A lot of horses that travel like that are going pretty close to as fast as they can go. I love horses like that personally, they're just cooler.
But we'll see.
On 27th December I was a fully paid up member of the TNL bridle club. On December 29th I cancelled my membership. He quickens and finds. Proper horse unpopular horse (relatively)….not a great combo so we’ll hear plenty more repetition about how his price is shit
On 27th December I was a fully paid up member of the TNL bridle club. On December 29th I cancelled my membership. He quickens and finds. Proper horse unpopular horse (relatively)….not a great combo so we’ll hear plenty more repetition about how his price is shit
I don't think he's hugely unpopular on here, tbh!
I'm not a fan, actually that's a lie, I'm not a fan of his price, having seen this story all too many times before. 6-PU-3-2-3 are the form figures of the last 5 runners to go from the Challow to the Turners/Gallaghers/Ballymore. The closest of those that got to winning was Champ, he got within 2 lengths of City Island.....City bloody Island!
I don't have the answers as to why this is the case, but it is!
Bravemansgame went short after winning the Challow, before hitting around the 5/1 mark I believe, he finished 12 lengths behind Bob Olinger.
I'm not entirely sure this years race is looking that strong, but I'd still prefer a Potters Charm over The New Lion, however, I think the only way either of them win this race is if Jasmin De Vaux and/or Kopek De Bordes don't turn up! I'd probably even have Final Demand ahead of the pair too. All 3 have only won maidens so far, they now need to do it at graded level, but IF they do, The New Lion will not be favourite and will very likely be vulnerable!
ComplyOrDie Sorry - I can’t quote your post for some reason.
The only thing I’d say in respect of your Challow winners point, which is a hell of a hoodoo to break by the way, is how many of them would have had even a 5% chance of running in a Champion Hurdle the following year? They’re all future chasers. The New Lion is a different type of horse to most winners of the Challow and looks amply suited to a Ballymore (and maybe a Champion Hurdle next year).
The ground may also be a factor. Most Challows are run of soft or heavy ground. This year was much better ground. Perhaps that will affect how The New Lion goes in the Ballymore.
Edit: To add to the ground point, only two Challows have been run on ground described as better than good in the 10 preceding this years. They were won by Champ and Mesiree Des Obeaux who are arguably the Challow winners to have run with the most credit.
Last edited by Exar Essay; 3 January 2025, 09:37 AM.
ComplyOrDie Sorry - I can’t quote your post for some reason.
The only thing I’d say in respect of your Challow winners point, which is a hell of a hoodoo to break by the way, is how many of them would have had even a 5% chance of running in a Champion Hurdle the following year? They’re all future chasers. The New Lion is a different type of horse to most winners of the Challow and looks amply suited to a Ballymore (and maybe a Champion Hurdle next year).
The ground may also be a factor. Most Challows are run of soft or heavy ground. This year was much better ground. Perhaps that will affect how The New Lion goes in the Ballymore.
Edit: To add to the ground point, only two Challows have been run on ground described as better than good in the 10 preceding this years. They were won by Champ and Mesiree Des Obeaux who are arguably the Challow winners to have run with the most credit.
I disagree. He's by Kayf Tara, I don't remember any Kayf Tara progeny being Champion Hurdle types, or good enough for one, for that matter.
He's also out of a mare who produced Kateira, whose best performances have been over 2m4f & 3m, and El Presente, whose highest rated performance was over 3m5f & 3m.
ComplyOrDie Sorry - I can’t quote your post for some reason.
The only thing I’d say in respect of your Challow winners point, which is a hell of a hoodoo to break by the way, is how many of them would have had even a 5% chance of running in a Champion Hurdle the following year? They’re all future chasers. The New Lion is a different type of horse to most winners of the Challow and looks amply suited to a Ballymore (and maybe a Champion Hurdle next year).
The ground may also be a factor. Most Challows are run of soft or heavy ground. This year was much better ground. Perhaps that will affect how The New Lion goes in the Ballymore.
Edit: To add to the ground point, only two Challows have been run on ground described as better than good in the 10 preceding this years. They were won by Champ and Mesiree Des Obeaux who are arguably the Challow winners to have run with the most credit.
Yep,spot on re comparing Challows imo
This one was totally different to recent renewals and a totally different winner in style of running.
ComplyOrDie Sorry - I can’t quote your post for some reason.
The only thing I’d say in respect of your Challow winners point, which is a hell of a hoodoo to break by the way, is how many of them would have had even a 5% chance of running in a Champion Hurdle the following year? They’re all future chasers. The New Lion is a different type of horse to most winners of the Challow and looks amply suited to a Ballymore (and maybe a Champion Hurdle next year).
The ground may also be a factor. Most Challows are run of soft or heavy ground. This year was much better ground. Perhaps that will affect how The New Lion goes in the Ballymore.
Edit: To add to the ground point, only two Challows have been run on ground described as better than good in the 10 preceding this years. They were won by Champ and Mesiree Des Obeaux who are arguably the Challow winners to have run with the most credit.
This is almost verbatim my take on the The New Lion and the Challow this year. We'll all be eagerly anticipating the Lawlors on Sunday but that is not exactly the best trial for the Turners. Looking at this years cast I'd say they're predominantly staying types* so the winner might not be the right horse for the Turners come March.
*By staying types I mean horses that are 2.5 to 3m horses as opposed to 2m to 2.5m horses. It's the latter I want for the Turners.
I'm not a fan, actually that's a lie, I'm not a fan of his price, having seen this story all too many times before. 6-PU-3-2-3 are the form figures of the last 5 runners to go from the Challow to the Turners/Gallaghers/Ballymore. The closest of those that got to winning was Champ, he got within 2 lengths of City Island.....City bloody Island!
I don't have the answers as to why this is the case, but it is!
Bravemansgame went short after winning the Challow, before hitting around the 5/1 mark I believe, he finished 12 lengths behind Bob Olinger.
I'm not entirely sure this years race is looking that strong, but I'd still prefer a Potters Charm over The New Lion, however, I think the only way either of them win this race is if Jasmin De Vaux and/or Kopek De Bordes don't turn up! I'd probably even have Final Demand ahead of the pair too. All 3 have only won maidens so far, they now need to do it at graded level, but IF they do, The New Lion will not be favourite and will very likely be vulnerable!
Yep, all 3 have only won maidens so far.
Few ifs there!
Time will tell if they produce the form required, whatever that may be this year!!
At the moment though, they are imo behind the deserved fav.
On 27th December I was a fully paid up member of the TNL bridle club. On December 29th I cancelled my membership. He quickens and finds. Proper horse unpopular horse (relatively)….not a great combo so we’ll hear plenty more repetition about how his price is shit
Yep
im more in hope than convinced but it was more visually encouraging than the previous run.
I disagree. He's by Kayf Tara, I don't remember any Kayf Tara progeny being Champion Hurdle types, or good enough for one, for that matter.
He's also out of a mare who produced Kateira, whose best performances have been over 2m4f & 3m, and El Presente, whose highest rated performance was over 3m5f & 3m.
Surely we have to factor in what we’ve seen and what the trainer/owners are saying too? Breeding is a good indicator, but we’ve got 3 hurdles races to judge him on too.
I’m not saying he’s good enough to win a Champion Hurdle, or even a Ballymore, but the manner of his wins, his good hurdling technique, and the way he quickens is redolent of a Champion Hurdle horse. And I don’t think you could say that about many other Challow winners.
On 27th December I was a fully paid up member of the TNL bridle club. On December 29th I cancelled my membership. He quickens and finds. Proper horse unpopular horse (relatively)….not a great combo so we’ll hear plenty more repetition about how his price is shit
Yep, I’ve seen bridle horses a fair few of them over the years!! This ain’t one.
Hes unpopular with those who aint backed him imo, not unusual that with a horse that’s probably too short to back currently.
Surely we have to factor in what we’ve seen and what the trainer/owners are saying too? Breeding is a good indicator, but we’ve got 3 hurdles races to judge him on too.
I’m not saying he’s good enough to win a Champion Hurdle, or even a Ballymore, but the manner of his wins, his good hurdling technique, and the way he quickens is redolent of a Champion Hurdle horse. And I don’t think you could say that about many other Challow winners.
What else is the trainer/owner going to say?
I wouldn't say he's quickened yet, he's done most of his work on the bridle, because the UK challengers he's run against have been average or running over the wrong trip. The long and short of it is he's beat a horse rated 127 by 4 1/2 lengths, yes on the snaff, but it is what it is. His hurdling technique is good, I'll give you that, but I'm not backing a horse because they can get over a hurdle.
When they are as short as he is everything has to add up for me, or at least be mostly there, and for me, a bit like the discussion I had with Jim about Kel Histoire yesterday, I have more than enough doubts about this lad at his price.
Would I back him E/W at 8/1-10/1, absolutely, but I'm not getting that now, he's 5/2-3/1. I missed the boat, but he's not a backable price now, and I suspect he'll be bigger on the day assuming ALL of the main protagonists stand their ground and perform up until that point. Would I play 5/1 E/W on the day as cover, possibly, but would depend on the field and field size!
The one caveat to this is that some at the top end of the market don't make the race, then obviously he could look a steal, I've already said I don't think it looks the strongest renewal, so I'd be needing Jasmin and or Kopek to at least turn up, for my points to stand.
Surely we have to factor in what we’ve seen and what the trainer/owners are saying too? Breeding is a good indicator, but we’ve got 3 hurdles races to judge him on too.
I’m not saying he’s good enough to win a Champion Hurdle, or even a Ballymore, but the manner of his wins, his good hurdling technique, and the way he quickens is redolent of a Champion Hurdle horse. And I don’t think you could say that about many other Challow winners.
Exactly.
Hes perfectly entitled to be a different animal to the normal Challow winner, and imo unfair to crab his chances just because he’s a Challow winner.
The ground conditions of the race may well be similar to those in March , and the distance certainly will be.
Hes shown he can jump, travel and quicken over the distance.
Now we await to see if he’s good enough on the day to beat whatever turns up.
Right now I don’t have much idea who his biggest threat might be, we await that too.
They could say nothing in respect of next year. Or that he looks a chaser. Very few come out and say they’ve potentially got a Champion Hurdle horse. I wouldn’t have thought any Challow winners have had that moniker put upon them.
I think we’re talking at slightly crossed purposes in respect of the rest of your post. I’m not advocating him as a bet. He’s too short IMO. I said a couple of pages back that I think he’s the right fav but should be an ew price.
My only point here is that he seems, to me at least, a slightly different type to those that have gone before. I think he holds out more hope of breaking the hoodoo than a Captain Teague or Stage Star or Hermes Allen or Bravemansgame.
I disagree. He's by Kayf Tara, I don't remember any Kayf Tara progeny being Champion Hurdle types, or good enough for one, for that matter.
He's also out of a mare who produced Kateira, whose best performances have been over 2m4f & 3m, and El Presente, whose highest rated performance was over 3m5f & 3m.
Think we have to talk about the ground for him as well. He won his maiden on soft, but recent two performances have come on good to soft along with his bumper run, whilst he was pulled three times prior to bumper debut on account of soft ground. There is some evidence in breeding to back this up as well. His dam never raced (According to RP) but her progeny has shown a preference for better ground also. El Presente top 11 runs according to RPR's came on good or faster! All five wins under rules also came on good or faster ground. Full sister Kateira did win on soft at the end of last season, though she has mainly raced on good to soft or faster with 3 of the 4 times she raced on soft coming in her 4 worst performances (according to RPR again). She was also a non runner on account of ground when due to run on soft as a novice. Another half brother in Blairs Cove saw his 6 top runs come on good ground! Whilst I am sure he would have no problem handling softer ground, it may be a case that he would handle faster conditions better than most and therefore softer ground would bring other horses into the equation more.
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