August ‘24 Yankee

[Eggs]

Many thanks to Atlantic Viking for captaining last months wager, be interesting if he has a selection or two he came close to including that can be considered this month. MoM suggested he could be back to take the helm which will be terrific.

This was last years effort, so we can do better;

August:
Marine Nationale (Arkle) @ 3/1
Salvador Ziggy (NHC) @ 10/1
Inthepocket (Turners) @ 14/1
Iroko (BANC) @ 25/1

Best odds - 17,159/1
Bookmaker - William Hill

Lets have any thoughts.

[Eggs]

….i’ll throw Jasmin De Vaux (Gallaghers) into the mix. Got a few positive mentions last month & 12-1 available in a couple of places.

[OverTheLast]

….i’ll throw Jasmin De Vaux (Gallaghers) into the mix. Got a few positive mentions last month & 12-1 available in a couple of places.

Champion bumper form not a worry Eggs?

I backed immediately after Cheltenham for Gallaghers.... but the bumper form has been putrid since

[Eggs]

Champion bumper form not a worry Eggs?

I backed immediately after Cheltenham for Gallaghers.... but the bumper form has been putrid since

….certainly a concern so perhaps not the best shout and there’s a few in the Diary section at fancy odds that might be worth considering for the novice hurdles.

[Killiney]

I seem to remember reading somewhere that JDV is ‘narrow and small’. If so I wonder where it will have the scope required for the Gallagher- maybe Supreme might be a better fit.

[Spectre]

I seem to remember reading somewhere that JDV is ‘narrow and small’. If so I wonder where it will have the scope required for the Gallagher- maybe Supreme might be a better fit.

I wouldn't be too concerned about that. This is what I try to look for when I assess which way Willie's Novice Hurdlers will go:

A free running sort that jumps hurdles nicely will usually head to the Supreme.

A relaxed type and easy to settle, but perhaps a bit slower over hurdles will go to the Gallaghers.

A relaxed type that is easy to settle, that jumps hurdles adequately could go either way.

Not a precise thing, but worth being in the mix, is the Mullins French breds and ex Flat tend to have more success in the Supreme, and the Ex-Pointers (unless they specifically ran in a 2m4f point), tend to have more success in the Gallaghers.

Paul Townend will want the two highest rated horses to be split across the two races. The criteria above will definitely be used, but if there's little to separate, it's worth considering where they'll end up in the future based on breeding, Gold Cup, Ryanair, or Champion Chase. That generally will be the final arbiter if it's there is virtually nothing between two horses..

Willie will have a battalion of horses to choose from as usual so it's much better to assess as the season goes on, but I'd be watching out for his that started their racing life out in France to see if one develops as his top Supreme contender, because I'd be very happy with Jasmin de Vaux emerging as a Gallaghers type.

At this stage before we find out about those that are unraced, or have only run in minor bumpers there are three that are on my radar:

Salvador Mundi - The formline is obvious with Sir Gino. He ran in the Triumph on debut for Mullins, and that was blatantly for experience. Even then he was only beaten 3 lengths by Nurburgring who recently won the Galway Hurdle and is now rated 150. He has run over the summer in a maiden hurdle for further experience, winning by 62l giving weight away. I think he is a very exciting prospect for this season. I think there is sufficient cross form to suggest he can quickly improve to the 150+ horse he'll need to be, and as a 4 yo rising 5 he'll have more relevant early experience than anything other than a talented ex-French new season import. There's no reason to think of him as anything other than a Supreme type.

Jasmin de Vaux - Initially I'm inclined to think of him as more of Gallagher's horse than a Supreme horse. What he does over hurdles may change that view though. He's an ex-pointer and those types tend to do better in the Gallaghers for Willie than they do in the Supreme. That doesn't mean he won't be a Supreme type though, but only Appreciate It has fit that bill for Willie in the last decade, and he only ended up there after an injury to Ferny Hollow, who was a speedy type who ran in a 2m4f point and never over 3 miles. Incidentally Appreciate It also debuted in a 2m4f Point, but was beaten and then stepped up to 3m next time.

Kopek Des Bordes - Doesn't fit either the ex-French bred or debuted in a Point, given he made his debut in a Bumper two weeks after the Festival. The timing of that, and the fact that he is only a 4yo suggests he has been given time to mature and to learn how to deal with life in training at Closutton. Young horses can start getting a bit light after a few months in training, so he was obviously thought of as strong enough to run in a bumper to get some experience. I'd say the fact that he won so comprehensively in a good time would have surprised them. I suspect hey knew he had ability, but the race was for experience and a cosy win being pushed out would have been more than enough. It's worth remembering he beat Clap of Thunder giving him 5lbs, by a lengthening 13 lengths, who himself had previously only been beaten 4 lengths in the valuable Newbury Bumper on Betfair Hurdle day at Newbury, won by Royal Infantry, who was 8th and beaten 17l by Jasmin de Vaux in the Champion Bumper. You can't take all of that literally, but that suggests to me that he wasn't far short of JdV, and that was his racecourse debut. Any horse that puts up a 124RPR on Bumper debut is one that should go straight into any tracker. He's harder to weigh up in terms of The Supreme or The Gallaghers though. What I will say is that 'No Risk At All's' tend to stick to 2 miles in their novice hurdle seasons, and are relatively sharp early types. They tend to go up in trip as they develop stamina in time. His Dam progeny all seem to have operated at their best between 2m and 2m6f, with the step up in trip being later in their careers. She's had a number of progeny, and only one has won over 3m and that was just the once, first time stepped up to the trip over a sharp 3m on quick ground. The horse despite being multiple winner never won over the trip again. My overall feeling is that if his jumping is up to scratch he will stay at 2 miles. If he's slower or prone to mistakes then a step up to 2 and half miles shouldn't be an issue.

As I said though, with all three, and the fact that Willie will have new recruits to add to the mix, it would be impossible to be completely confident of where any of the three will go, and any bets in the novice hurdles this early should always come with a health warning. Not least because we have Henderson, Elliott, and De Bromhead horses to throw into the mix too.

[IstabraqBarRegular]

I really like DANCING CITY in the Browns Advisory Chase.
Ran nice 3rd in Albert Bartlett, he than followed up at Aintree and Punchestown, winning both grade 1s well and looking progressive.
Wilie gave off very positive vibes post race, suggesting he'll be a very good 3m chaser.

I suspect Ballyburn will go Arkle with optionr of Turners, Impaire Et Passe looks a Turners type and Majborough will find it tough being 5 year old and might not even run in this race.
Other options are relatively limited for Willie suggesting Dancing City will be Willie's number 1 and Paul Townend's first choice ride.

Good luck.

[Eggs]

I really like DANCING CITY in the Browns Advisory Chase.
Ran nice 3rd in Albert Bartlett, he than followed up at Aintree and Punchestown, winning both grade 1s well and looking progressive.
Wilie gave off very positive vibes post race, suggesting he'll be a very good 3m chaser.

I suspect Ballyburn will go Arkle with optionr of Turners, Impaire Et Passe looks a Turners type and Majborough will find it tough being 5 year old and might not even run in this race.
Other options are relatively limited for Willie suggesting Dancing City will be Willie's number 1 and Paul Townend's first choice ride.

Good luck.

….we captured Dancing City in the ‘May Yankee’ but there’s no reason we can’t include him again.

Keep the suggestions coming.

[Istabraq]

….we captured Dancing City in the ‘May Yankee’ but there’s no reason we can’t include him again.

Keep the suggestions coming.

Could easily land as a NH Chase horse in my opinion...

[darlojim]

Why don't we just aim for the bushes and lets all retire from this months with a Willie/French recruits/JP Yankee (Charlus owner unknown as of yet)..

Supreme Novice Hurdle: Kel Histoire 33/1
Gallagher Novice Hdle: Kom Tu Voudras 33/1
Mares Novice Hdle: Venusienne 20/1
Triumph Hurdle: Charlus 16/1


Call it off, Unibet are 100k max payout

[ComplyOrDie]

William Munny 25/1 (Supreme) - Obviously will have to be forgiven slightly for his last run, but looking into it was it really that bad? Probably not, IMO. Redemption Day has plenty more experience than him and the rest of the field for that matter, plus The Yellow Clay aside, he's finished ahead of a fair few Cheltenham Bumper horses too, including the winner, runner up and fourth, and this only his third start under rules. The bumper he won in Naas previously is one to note, it's chucked up a fair few festival winners/placed horses, including Gerri Colombe, Stellar Story, Ile Atlantique, Caldwell Potter & Sandor Clegane over the past 3-4 seasons. By the sounds of it William Munny has grown a fair bit since last season as well, and will likely be aimed at the Supreme if good enough.

Sir Gino OR Mystical Power both 14/1 (Champion Hurdle) - Hear me out. IF Constitution Hill turns up, he still wins for me, but we've got to see him come back to his very best. FWIW I absolutely love him and hope he does come back, but it's no certainty, yet. State Man is as admirable as they come but beating Irish Point by 1 1/4 lengths in last seasons race is not screaming for me to have him onside again this coming season, and I do feel he performs better away from Cheltenham, in all honestly. Ballyburn I think a lot of us are expecting to go chasing. Lossiemouth is a worthy opponent, but all bar one soft race last season, she beat mares only, and not come up against a whole heap, IMO. Assuming Constitution Hill gets there fit and well then Sir Gino will very likely be Nicky's 'back-up' for the race however he could easily slot in as his main hope should the unthinkable happen again. He's improved a ridiculous amount for each run and only had the 3 starts for Nicky. His RPR improvements so far have been +13lbs (from debut to second run) and +9lbs (second run to third run). From what has been said to date, he will stay over hurdles for another season, before taking on a chasing career, and he seems a viable E/W play and could be a big player should anything happen to his stablemate. Mystical Power is another I'm expecting to stay over hurdles, he's by Galileo, which is one of the main reasons I feel he'll remain over the smaller obstacles, and I think a more steadily run Champion Hurdle, over the end to end gallop of a Supreme, will suit Mystical Power more than the Supreme did. He wouldn't be the first horse to place in a Supreme and win a Champion Hurdle, either, and I believe he represents some E/W value. He too is another who has improved with each run and likely more to come, which, of course, will be needed if he's to feature in the race.


I have a few more to add, but don't have the time to finish the write ups yet, so will add these over the next couple of days.

[JackieMoon33]

Why don't we just aim for the bushes and lets all retire from this months with a Willie/French recruits/JP Yankee (Charlus owner unknown as of yet)..

Supreme Novice Hurdle: Kel Histoire 33/1
Gallagher Novice Hdle: Kom Tu Voudras 33/1
Mares Novice Hdle: Venusienne 20/1
Triumph Hurdle: Charlus 16/1


Call it off, Unibet are 100k max payout

Manon is the one from France for the MNH

[darlojim]

Manon is the one from France for the MNH

Well you've made me have another look at her form, but its a bit meh isn't it :/

Obvious caveat that they aren't always showing full potential in FR, but thought it was weird the winner of her latest race at Auteuil was moved straight from Noel & Amanda's to a lesser trainer after the win. I did very much like how Venusienne went through her race debut though and that mistake at the last probably cost her the win that day which could end up being a blessing in disguise keeping the nov status.

[JackieMoon33]

Well you've made me have another look at her form, but its a bit meh isn't it :/

Obvious caveat that they aren't always showing full potential in FR, but thought it was weird the winner of her latest race at Auteuil was moved straight from Noel & Amanda's to a lesser trainer after the win. I did very much like how Venusienne went through her race debut though and that mistake at the last probably cost her the win that day which could end up being a blessing in disguise keeping the nov status.

It's not top notch form but the two horses that beat her have gone on to place and win and graded level. But as you say, was Manon out there to win those days are running with a view to being sold with novice status intact? Always hard to know with French racing. She travelled and jumped nicely and looks to have potential, even more so that she'll have had a year at Willie's to acclimatize. I'm also of the opinion that the sire will be worth following and capable of siring top horses.

[darlojim]

It's not top notch form but the two horses that beat her have gone on to place and win and graded level. But as you say, was Manon out there to win those days are running with a view to being sold with novice status intact? Always hard to know with French racing. She travelled and jumped nicely and looks to have potential, even more so that she'll have had a year at Willie's to acclimatize. I'm also of the opinion that the sire will be worth following and capable of siring top horses.

Definitely agree with this.

Do we know the owner of Manon yet?