Lessons Learned from Cheltenham 2024

[Saxon Warrior]

Using Roll Ups.

I disagree with the stakes scenario though. If I wanted 3pts on a horse I'd stick 3pts on a horse, as an example.

The fact I'm trying to get a bigger return off the back of a small stake is because I don't want to lay out that amount on said horse (though admittedly, chasing some horses via roll ups I may well have ended up just staking said amount in the first place).

If I back an on the day double for 1pt anywhere else in the season and the first leg wins at say 3/1, I don't suddenly think ah s**t I've lost 4pts. I've only ever lost the 1pt initial stake, so I'm not sure why I would be fooling myself into thinking it's not cost as much, because it literally hasn't.

The other issue with the stakes scenario you play out, is say I'm backing a potential roll up that isn't due to run for a few months, and all I do is back that horse in a single and not rolled up to say, Constitution Hill for the Champion Hill, by the time that horse has won Constitution Hill could be half his current odds, so needing to back them in said roll up rather than wait for the first leg to settle then using the winnings makes more sense to me.

Well put.

Exactly the point for using rollups, doubles with an event this week at Aintree, this month incl Punchestown etc, etc ComplyOrDie

In the week we have new members, we have 3 or 4 on this thread telling people

●rollups, doubles are mugs bets
●we cant win more than you lose on them
●we cant be trusted to use them properly
●people that post on FJ can't possibly win on them
● we shouldn't post about other sports
●people can't be trusted with rollups
●theres no "value" to using them
●that a 1pt double is somehow a 3pt loss

Like there's some sort of cleansing required of FJ, and this narrative should be the only game in town.

I disagree, thats not the way to grow Fat Jockey at all.

You can enter Singles, rollups etc when you wish and not be dictated to.

I'd tend to err on the side of believing what people have written is true, and not seek to suggest otherwise.

FJ should be inclusive not exclusive on the chats we have through the year.

Id suggest that without talking about

● other angles,
● and other sports,
● other race meetings (Flat and Jumps)

along the way from one March Festival to another.

.... then the Forum would benefit less from those discussions,

than they gain from only talking about Win bets in March for months and months on end.

But if those "purists" that want to cleanse the site out from the wider discussions that keep the chat rolling through and including talk on Aintree, Punchestown, Royal Ascot, Galway, Breeders Cup etc

- want people like me to change and just for us to talk about Win Singles at Cheltenham in March, then maybe they should have their way, and we all just do that?

[Black Dog]

As someone who uses roll ups and benefits from others knowledge of other sports, flat racing etc I agree totally with the above. Especially taking people at their word. Trust is a very important component on a forum imo.

[Quevega]

Sanctimony sandwich anyone ?

I don't recall anyone telling anyone to do anything during this discussion. Only people offering advice and their own opinion on subject matters in discussion at the time.
Anyone interpreting this differently should really read it again. And not go around accusing others of dictating to people what they can and can't do "in front of new members".

I'm sure they are all grown up enough and respectful enough to take peoples comments for how they are intended on the whole (Although I know some people aren't)
How the forum can grow and thrive going forward is a matter of opinion and this will differ for each individual member. I'd prefer less mardy arse's myself.

I also agree that trust has to be the basis of any discussion on here.

Although my mum did advise me to not completely trust people that are proven liars, hypocrites and two faced.

I could have chosen to take that advice (her opinion) or some of it on board or ignore it. Depending on whether I valued or agreed with it or not.
I'm fairly sure that's what most people would do when anyone offers their thoughts and opinions on anything that interests them on here. You either take it on board or not.

Anyone offended that they feel they have been referred to as a mug, probably is a mug. And so am I.
We're all mugs together.


PS.
There's nothing wrong with betting and nothing wrong with placing a double, but there is good and bad ways of doing both. And that's a fact.
Reminding people or discussing this fact on a betting forum from time to time is entirely normal. IMO.

[Quevega]

In the week we have new members, we have 3 or 4 on this thread telling people

●rollups, doubles are mugs bets
●we cant win more than you lose on them
●we cant be trusted to use them properly
●people that post on FJ can't possibly win on them
● we shouldn't post about other sports
●people can't be trusted with rollups
●theres no "value" to using them
●that a 1pt double is somehow a 3pt loss

Apologies for labouring the point but as one of the 3 or 4 "telling people".
I Just read it again and it annoyed me.

Where has anybody said any of these things ? (listed above). Most have not been said at all, and the others have kind of been said but with sufficient context to mean something different altogether ?

Above anything else in a forum environment where everything is written down and available to see for ever more (unless deleted). The one thing that infuriates me more than anything is people saying you've said something that is clearly not evident. I appreciate there's an element of interpretation but there's a difference between a "slightly different interpretation" and "perverting the obvious intent of the original quote" For some reason ?

Using the list above, maybe someone can provide the quotes ?
Where the 3 or 4 of us have said those things ?

[FinalFurlong91]

Here was me thinking we were grown adults having a healthy discussion about the relative merits of the betting strategies we use

Clearly not

If we don't agree we don't agree this is a forum that's what it's for and contrasting opinions is what it's about

What stops a forum from growing is when we start acting like people can't think differently to us and try to slate them when they do

[Exotic Dancer]

Bookies much happier to lay the doubles than singles as well so its easier to get the bet on.

In theory but some of the algorithms bookies are using are extremely blunt and I know for a fact that sites under different ownership share the same restriction algorithms; so if you have the same 'status' on each you will be restricted to identical stakes.

The best way to keep an account unrestricted is to be very careful with how you use it in the first few months, to gradually increase your stake size and avoid withdrawing more than once a month or more than £1k at a time if possible.

[Hurricane fly]

I feel like roll ups and how they are recorded are done to death every year after the festival.

As always, it's up to the person recording their bets to be honest about what they've bet and you have to take it at face value. If someone doesn't record losses against them but takes the credit for the wins then who are they really kidding? Themselves.

I could have pretended I didn't lose 60+ points on Trump to win the last US election as a first leg for countless multis but I'd have been lying to myself.


Time to move on, we've got Sandown and Punchestown coming up for some final season indicators before the inevitable hype horse backing. It's a wonderful time to be alive as always.

[Captain Chris]

Fml. Just read through 5 pages of comments and completely forgot what the title of the thread was.

To try and bring it back on track...
Avoid all mid distance races as they are the devil and shouldn't even exist in their current guise.

[robith]

My lessons learned - is that you can't just learn one lesson.

We have greater access to data than ever, but so do the bookmakers. The game's the same, just got more fierce.

This might not be applicable to everyone as I tend not to have an edge as I'm more of a "judge of judges" than a man making his own tissue (in fact, sometimes I feel like a leech here, hence why I try to make you all smile).

And for me, Cheltenham represents probably 80% of my annual stakes - so roll ups etc are big for me cos I'm looking to get paid and make sure the P number is bigger than the L number. But still requires tactics - I mostly use it where I think they're the likeliest winner but they are just shy of the price I want, I'll couple them with something I'm betting on anyway to try and get the extra juice (though I always write in my diary the double I'm doing when I place it - as a roll up defender even I raise an eyebrow at people who place another bet then say it's a roll up."

I pivoted this year to a smaller bank, more win only but the few each way shots I had did alright. I got some good prices on the exchanges, I missed some prices in the handicaps waiting for the day and BOG. In week I stayed up all night studying Gaultstats to realise Shakemupharry was the NAP of the festival, I had my biggest single win of all time with a roll up of Ballyburn and a Hugh Taylor all weather shout in May, I read Jane Mangan's blog and backed her Hunter CHase selections blind. I got lucky and left Reading Tommy Wrong alone for the Bartlett cos having missed him antepost I noticed the Mullins favs that went in got pummelled in the market and on Friday he was friendless whilst people were dropping 5 figures on Galopin. Two years running one of my best returns has been chaining Henry horses cos they're likely to have gotten beat in the run up, but are primed for the day and they get punted once the week starts.

Having a smaller bank, whilst not a "retirement" festival was much more aligned to my lifestyle, but the biggest thing I learnt over the year was a comfort in being wrong; there's no one path to success and as a punter in the modern age I feel the main lesson is keep learning and embrace something if you think it's right even if it's not your style.

"it is not the most intellectual of the species that survives; it is not the strongest that survives; but the species that survives is the one that is able best to adapt and adjust to the changing environment in which it finds itself."