April ‘24 Yankee

[AaronLad]

An idea for a potential theme to this months Yankee....

Slade steel, Captain Guinness, Grey dawning, Teahupoo, Golden Ace, Galopin des champs and Limerick Lace all ran and lost in April 2023. All won a graded race at this year's festival.

After a safe looking opening Yankee how about we go a little riskier this month, 4 losers.

4 losers this April that will win next march.

[archie]

It's an idea but you'd probably want to extend qualification to 4th May as that's the last day of Punchestown. Maybe do it as the May yankee using Saxon Warrior stat packs.

[archie]

….any suggestions, Archie, especially given the early capture of GDC/El Fab? Interested if you’d consider options to beat either (maybe F2F) or other races you think are more sensible plays.

As I said earlier, I think that GDC and El Fabiolo are the most likely winners of their respective races and, for me, it's far too early to look at options to beat them. I feel the same about Teahupoo.

My suggestions at this stage would be Gaelic Warrior in the Ryanair and Coko Beach in the XC.

Gaelic Warrior is, of course, speculating on which race he takes in but I think the Ryanair is the most likely. In the XC, I think that the likes of Galvin, Minella Indo and Conflated will be regressing and Coko Beach will only be a few days past his 10th birthday.. Ignoring the obligatory French possible, I'd see the main danger as Noble Yeats and who knows where he'll end up next March.

[Killiney]

One I like the look of is Jeroboam Machin. He may be going under the radar a bit, although he is only 16/1 or thereabouts for The Supreme so can hardly be said to have been missed in the market. But having missed Cheltenham there maybe some value in his price. He was after all fav for the Festival Bumper after beating a strong field at Lep. in Feb including You Oughta Know, Redemption Day, The Yellow Clay and others 4 1/2 l and more. A winning pointer he has the scope to make a useful hurdler. That said he has an injury to overcome but his price arguably indicates that this might not be an issue.

[Quevega]

I'd stick with the main three from last month and swap Lossie for Con Hill.

If it's considered doubtful given all the apparent issues then maybe Coko Beach like Archie says.

I personally thought Con Hill a more solid option for last months as choosing between Lossie, State man and Ballyburn is tricky. State Man most solid but probably not as sexy if one or both of the others come to the race in March. Both might not though.

Maybe another option would be to include all the same 4 horses as March and switch Lossie to the Mares.

[Quevega]

One I like the look of is Jeroboam Machin. He may be going under the radar a bit, although he is only 16/1 or thereabouts for The Supreme so can hardly be said to have been missed in the market. But having missed Cheltenham there maybe some value in his price. He was after all fav for the Festival Bumper after beating a strong field at Lep. in Feb including You Oughta Know, Redemption Day, The Yellow Clay and others 4 1/2 l and more. A winning pointer he has the scope to make a useful hurdler. That said he has an injury to overcome but his price arguably indicates that this might not be an issue.

There's been discussion on him in the members section mate. Under the radar.

[Killiney]

Thanks I will check it out.

[Killiney]

Thanks Quevaga I see there was even a suspicion he is dead ! But seemingly he is still alive but no news as to his health after the injury. So certainly one to leave alone for the moment, even though that’s too late for me. But at least I discovered the ‘under the radar’ thread.

[Joleg]

I'd stick with the main three from last month and swap Lossie for Con Hill.

If it's considered doubtful given all the apparent issues then maybe Coko Beach like Archie says.

I personally thought Con Hill a more solid option for last months as choosing between Lossie, State man and Ballyburn is tricky. State Man most solid but probably not as sexy if one or both of the others come to the race in March. Both might not though.

Maybe another option would be to include all the same 4 horses as March and switch Lossie to the Mares.

i would agree 100% with this, its about snagging winners and currently the main 3 are the most likely, given the knowledge that we have.

That being said i would prefer Con Hill as alternative to Lossie, rather than switching Lossie to the mares

[Lobos]

i would agree 100% with this, its about snagging winners and currently the main 3 are the most likely, given the knowledge that we have.

That being said i would prefer Con Hill as alternative to Lossie, rather than switching Lossie to the mares

Surely better to wait for news on El Fabiolo first ?

Been very quiet on him since PT pulled him up in Champion Chase and he was reported sore/stiff after the race wasn't he ?

Any updates on him ?

[Saxon Warrior]

Surely better to wait for news on El Fabiolo first ?

Been very quiet on him since PT pulled him up in Champion Chase and he was reported sore/stiff after the race wasn't he ?

Any updates on him ?

Personally I wouldnt be quick to back El Fab at his current 2025 price given his error when pulling up.

Bound to be held up by that soreness.

Gaelic Warrior put up a 170 Arkle RPR, which is plenty good enough (as a Novice) for the Champion Chase in 12 months time, and Willie said hes sticking to 2M, post-race.

So I see that race, currently, as more of a puzzle than having a clear no1 shot, with little danger.

Puchestown will reveal more, hopefully.

[Lobos]

Agree Sax. Can't back El Fabiolo until we see at least see him entered up again. Might have Energumene back firing as well next season so it could get very interesting. Willie will not run all three in it.

[Exar Essay]

Interesting how differently people see things. I take the opposite view to the above about El Fabiolo. Seeing how many people are taking the contrary view, including some I’ve huge respect for, I am concerned I am on the wrong side of this one.

He’s currently best priced 7/2 and I’ve been scaling in at about 3.8/1 with WH boost.

He made a serious race ending error in the QMCC and that is his only blemish over fences. He's posted an RPR north of 170 five times already. Before the race, he was talked about as almost untouchable and as a serious talent.

Whilst the most recent performance has to be factored into an assessment (and it is probably the most important one when it comes to assessing the credentials of a graded horse) I do think that the seven 1’s before the QMCC count for a lot in El Fabiolo’s case. Further, it was an error that ended his streak as opposed to being beaten on merit (as it were). I’d be more confident that he’d run his race NTO than I would Gaelic Warrior.

In my view, El Fabiolo remains the most talented 2 miler around.

I am concerned about his general health and how he’s recovered from whatever injury he’s picked up. I know he was sore in behind and there was rumour that it might’ve been something a little more concerning than initially thought. But I think the 7/2 reflects the risk.

I would also add that the QMCC is normally a fairly straightforward race to work out at an early stage and I think whilst a little more complex, there’s still only 3 maybe four genuine candidates in El Fabiolo, Gaelic Warrior, Energumene and Jonbon. The latter two could easily step up too, and we could know which way Jonbon is headed by next week.

[FinalFurlong91]

El fabiolo is 20lbs better than anything Gaelic warrior beat in the arkle

Il believe he can beat him when I see it

No need to have a bet now though until its confirmed el fabiolo is fit and firing

[Odin]

I would also add that the QMCC is normally a fairly straightforward race to work out at an early stage and I think whilst a little more complex, there’s still only 3 maybe four genuine candidates in El Fabiolo, Gaelic Warrior, Energumene and Jonbon. The latter two could easily step up too, and we could know which way Jonbon is headed by next week.

I agree with this. The price isn't enough for me to get involved in El Fabs individually given the injury but the overarching point of there being very few contenders means it probably should be. Particularly as at least one of Gaelic and Energumene will move upwards in trip if El Fabiolo makes it to QMCC as Willie's number one - a point Willie also specifically alluded to after Gaelics Arkle win:

"I suppose we have found his trip now and we will keep him at 2 miles"
"But you have El Fabiolo for that?"
"Well I guess he could go the Ryanair distance"
*Paraphrased conversation from memory so may not be fully accurate in words, but is in context (I believe)