Win Today & Festival

[Birds Nest]

Olly has said that on numerous occasions and mentioned not running at Cheltenham again as the undulations don't suit. However, he's backtracked recently and said that the Stayers is the target.

Yes he has said that, thats why i was a bit suprised at Bowens comments yesterday, he seemed against Cheltenham, you'd have thought he'd be itching to get on a good un in the stayers.

[Carnage at Taunton]

Shishkin, Altior and Sprinter all had at least 3 chases before their Arkle wins, and they were all older horses than SG.
They ain’t sending a 5 year old into the Arkle without the experience of enough runs imo, especially one that’s looking like this one is at the moment.

[Craigy14]

They're much more likely to muck about with their gobs than the actual horses.
Plenty of evidence for that.

Can’t argue with that

[Quevega]

So could any horse though. They could send him to a novice chase on the back of winning the fighting fifth and still revert back if Constitution Hill has an issue. They seem happy to ‘muck’ about with him this season as a sub, they’ve said it themselves.

They're much more likely to muck about with their gobs than the actual horses.
Plenty of evidence for that.

[Craigy14]

Beat me to it Q. As he's now substitute for CH he'll stay that way until the end of the season. Constitution Hill could win at Xmas or International but then pull up lame a week before the Fez.

So could any horse though. They could send him to a novice chase on the back of winning the fighting fifth and still revert back if Constitution Hill has an issue. They seem happy to ‘muck’ about with him this season as a sub, they’ve said it themselves.

[Lobos]

Beat me to it Q. As he's now substitute for CH he'll stay that way until the end of the season. Constitution Hill could win at Xmas or International but then pull up lame a week before the Fez.

[Carnage at Taunton]

The issue is, the kempton race is on boxing day, so Gino would need to be on standby till at least then, you'd think.
Which makes going chasing less likely, especially for this yard and given Hendersons early season comments about going lightly on a 5 year old season.

Your best bet for arkle hopes is him bombing tomorrow, or getting beat comfortably. IMO.

Yeah, I guess in that scenario they may go chasing, but personally even if he did I would not be confident he would end up in the Arkle.
The fact he’s still 4 would be against that happening imo

[Quevega]

I wouldn’t go as far to say it would harm his development. Nico certainly wasn’t bothered yesterday, he already jumped his hurdles with plenty air so don’t see it being an issue. In France they jump all kinds of obstacles at that age.

I felt they should have a plan and just stick to it instead of him being some sort of sub for Constitution Hill (CH), which is exactly what he is. Are you saying to me if CH comes back and wins by half the track at Kempton they won’t send Sir Gino chasing? Don’t quote me here but I think that is what Hendo and Nico are all hoping for imo.

The issue is, the kempton race is on boxing day, so Gino would need to be on standby till at least then, you'd think.
Which makes going chasing less likely, especially for this yard and given Hendersons early season comments about going lightly on a 5 year old season.

Your best bet for arkle hopes is him bombing tomorrow, or getting beat comfortably. IMO.

[Carnage at Taunton]

Think it’s going to be too late now for chasing?
He runs tomorrow, which means he probably won’t run again till at least January , which would probably mean only 1 chase before March .
Can see him staying over hurdles irrespective of what happens tomorrow.

[Craigy14]

Tricky to work out, but I'd expect that if he wins the fighting fifth then he's likely to drift a bit for the arkle as they surely would keep him over hurdles.
Bookies might be slow to push him out for the arkle but i'm sure the exchange would offer decent odds, if that's your gamble ?

If he wins the fighting fifth impressively then he probably goes close to fav for the champion.

Aye that’s a fair point, maybe just wait till post race.

I think he’s a bit of a monster hence wanting him covered in both scenarios. Think he would have won the triumph had it not been for Hendos yard issues.

[Craigy14]

Agree. You can't mess with them that much. Could really put the horse back in his development imo. He'll stay Hurdling this season at least regardless what happens tomorrow.

I wouldn’t go as far to say it would harm his development. Nico certainly wasn’t bothered yesterday, he already jumped his hurdles with plenty air so don’t see it being an issue. In France they jump all kinds of obstacles at that age.

I felt they should have a plan and just stick to it instead of him being some sort of sub for Constitution Hill (CH), which is exactly what he is. Are you saying to me if CH comes back and wins by half the track at Kempton they won’t send Sir Gino chasing? Don’t quote me here but I think that is what Hendo and Nico are all hoping for imo.

[Lobos]

Sean bowen did say yesterday cheltenham might not suit and flatter tracks is what he wants, just the jockey of course.

Olly has said that on numerous occasions and mentioned not running at Cheltenham again as the undulations don't suit. However, he's backtracked recently and said that the Stayers is the target.

[Birds Nest]

Strong Leader looks an ok one@25 to me.
Tough nut to crack at Cheltenham but could well end up 2nd fav.

Sean bowen did say yesterday cheltenham might not suit and flatter tracks is what he wants, just the jockey of course.

[Quevega]

Agree. You can't mess with them that much. Could really put the horse back in his development imo. He'll stay Hurdling this season at least regardless what happens tomorrow.

If he gets well beat tomorrow then they may go chasing, but he's still only four so you may be right.
I cannot imagine them going chasing though, if he runs well, as he's a good option for the yard behind C hill, should he return.

[Quevega]

Yes win and Arkle bet.

Oh I agree but he’s 10/1 now and 11/10 for tomorrow so if there was say 16/1-20/1 offered it would be worth a small cover imo.

Tricky to work out, but I'd expect that if he wins the fighting fifth then he's likely to drift a bit for the arkle as they surely would keep him over hurdles.
Bookies might be slow to push him out for the arkle but i'm sure the exchange would offer decent odds, if that's your gamble ?

If he wins the fighting fifth impressively then he probably goes close to fav for the champion.