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Would Aintree winners have a great record of following up at the fest? Just looking last year and none of the winners followed up, and only 3 even placed
Would Aintree winners have a great record of following up at the fest? Just looking last year and none of the winners followed up, and only 3 even placed
The aintree races have been pretty poor generally recently
Would Aintree winners have a great record of following up at the fest? Just looking last year and none of the winners followed up, and only 3 even placed
….not sure how many the likes of Mullins usually sends over compared to this year & whether the gap to Punchestown is a factor, plus he has a chance of winning the U.K. trainers title this season.
Looking back I see 3 winners the last three years.
Horses that didn't run at the festival in these bets would also be known as "losers". Dunno about you but I can't eat value.
Just my two cents, I'd be weary on both parts of the bet personally at Aintree
Putting value and these specific WTAF offers/bets aside.
Is winning at Aintree a negative for you when looking to make a bet on a horse for the Cheltenham festival ?
i.e would you rule out a horse on that fact alone ?
If the answer is no, then the relatively low winners to follow up means little If you like a horse for next years Festival anyway.
If the answer is yes, then why ? - Because of the stat or something else ?
It's the same as any of these type of bets at any meeting throughout the season IMO.
But obviously comes at a greater risk from the time element. Like any antepost bet placed now.
If every bet or transaction you make or a good percentage of them are value, then there's a much greater probability that you will have more money to purchase food than someone who doesn't get value as often.
Granted similar luck.
Putting value and these specific WTAF offers/bets aside.
Is winning at Aintree a negative for you when looking to make a bet on a horse for the Cheltenham festival ?
i.e would you rule out a horse on that fact alone ?
If the answer is no, then the relatively low winners to follow up means little If you like a horse for next years Festival anyway.
If the answer is yes, then why ? - Because of the stat or something else ?
It's the same as any of these type of bets at any meeting throughout the season IMO.
But obviously comes at a greater risk from the time element. Like any antepost bet placed now.
Yeah I would rule them out on that stat for a WTAF bet because they tend not to follow up next year. Some trends are just outcome bias, but some are because of the race programme. I'd reserve the right to change my mind later but for that particular bet, allow it. Anyway, I said it was just my personal view, feel free to knock yourself out on them
Yeah I would rule them out on that stat for a WTAF bet because they tend not to follow up next year. Some trends are just outcome bias, but some are because of the race programme. I'd reserve the right to change my mind later but for that particular bet, allow it. Anyway, I said it was just my personal view, feel free to knock yourself out on them
I'd put the WTAF bets to one side myself.
And none of them look particularly good value either
So it appears you're saying the logic behind the stat is because of the race programme then ? - Not sure what that means ?
I only asked as you appeared to rule out making any of those bets because of the stat regarding Aintree winners following up at next years festival.
It appeared more of an outcome bias type to me.
Obviously the Mullins/Irish dominance is a major factor in recent years and his and other Irish trainers relative lack of runners at Aintree on average. But this could be said about any British based meeting over the last few years, aside from ones like trials day that are much nearer the event, so logically this would have a better likelihood of success.
I'd say you'd be hard pressed to find many UK based race meetings that provide much more than one or two winners following up at the festival.
It will be 6 months before he has any idea of the program for an individual horse and he will probably change his mind several times after that.
Yep, you are probably right. He set a plan out of JD, Xmas then DRF before the GC for him but then that's likely for several . He does adore him by the sounds of it. Says he's a better looking chaser than GDC which is a big compliment. He's got a new teachers pet.........move over Facile Vega!
Unfortunately I am limited to an amount which is on the verge of making my account useless, but Sky have what I consider to be some very good value WTAF. The ones which jumped out to me:
IEP and Any Novice Chase - 18/1
Kargese and Mates Hurdle - 33/1
Jonbon an Ryanair - 25/1
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